Entering mid-10, in the domestic livestock and poultry sector,hog marketStill sluggish. Although the consumer market has entered its seasonal peak, actual demand clearly shows that the “peak season is not strong.” In addition, the benefits of reduced hog production capacity have fallen short of expectations, and production and sales remain imbalanced, exacerbating the ongoing search for a bottom in hog prices. Currently, the quoted price for standard-weight hogs has fallen below 10 yuan/kg, and hog prices continue to move lower. The depth of losses for producers has also increased substantially. At present,hog-to-grainratio has fallen back to around 4.5. Losses on sales of standard-weight hogs by leading mainstream self-breeding and self-raising hog enterprises may hover at 200 yuan per head, while losses for some self-breeding and self-raising producers may approach 500 yuan per head. The industry is facing a “winter”...
Citing a survey by an industry organization, 2026 year 10 month 16 day,Three-way crossbreedThe average price for standard-weight lean-type hogs sold is 9.79 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan from the previous day. Hog prices are mainly consolidating with a downward bias! However, hog prices have hit a new low since the second half of the year, and the market decline is “beyond expectations.” Hog prices have essentially fallen back to levels from the beginning of 5 month to the end of 6 month, down 12.3% year on year!
Specifically, across the northern and southern regions under national key monitoring, the highest average hog selling price is in Guangdong at 11.25 yuan/kg, while the lowest is in Xinjiang at 8.95 yuan/kg. Currently, only scattered areas in East China, Central China, and the two Guangxi-Guangdong regions have hog prices above 5 yuan/jin. In North China, Northeast China, Northwest China, and Southwest China, hog prices have all fallen into the “4-yuan era.” Quotations in the main low-price regions have fallen to around 9.25~9.8 yuan/kg, with the market showing a pattern of “declines across both north and south”!
According to market feedback, regarding current demand in China’s major consumer cities, Beijing and Shanghai: white-strip pork quotations in Beijing’s wholesale market are up or down 0.2 yuan, with average feedback on buying and selling; in Shanghai, white-strip pork is quoted at around 12.56~12.6 yuan/kg, with average trading activity and relatively ample supply. According to institutional research, the average price of the top three grades of white-strip pork in China is currently 13.51 yuan/kg. The market “white-hair price spread” remains at 3.72 yuan/kg, and losses at sampled slaughterhouses have deepened, with slaughterhouse pressures increasing again after the holiday!
In terms of the pace of hog marketings, in the overnight market, marketings decreased in East China and Southwest China, while increasing in Central China, Northwest China, and Northeast China! Feedback on the ease of slaughterhouses' procurement shows that in the Northeast market, producers were relatively active in marketing hogs, large-scale hog companies made only average progress toward their marketing plans, transaction prices were weak, and slaughterhouses procured hogs smoothly; in the East China and Central China markets, the pace of hog deliveries to slaughterhouses was slow at first and then accelerated, procurement difficulty was average, and willingness to market hogs remained; in the southern market, including Southwest China and South China, large-scale hog companies made fair progress toward their marketing plans, while feedback on hog purchasing and sales was unremarkable!
At present, the hog market is mainly in a stalemate with fluctuations. Bullish and bearish sentiment coexist, but bullish confidence is somewhat lacking, while bearish and neutral sentiment is relatively strong! In my view, the key reasons for this sharp “plunge” in hog prices, with the price center falling more than expected, are as follows:
On the one hand, based on the gradual reduction in the number of breeding sows last year, theory suggests that hog supply pressure will ease in 2026 10! However, according to industry surveys, planned marketings by large-scale hog companies in 10 increased by 1.91% month on month, meaning that marketings this month “increased rather than decreased”! The main factors behind the increased market supply are the high base of breeding sows in the earlier period and the rise in sow PSY, which improved the capacity to supply piglets and supported an increase in this month's supply of market hogs. In addition, last month, expectations for the two major holidays were widely bullish, leading producers to engage in secondary fattening and hold hogs back from market. Meanwhile, demand provided insufficient marginal support last month, culling of low-priced sows increased, and large-scale hog companies marketed hogs slowly, completing less than their average monthly marketing plans. This created an overlap with the marketing plans for 10!
On the other hand, demand has been weak during the peak season! Traditionally, during the “Golden September” period, domestic consumer demand is sluggish, and the seasonal recovery in demand is weak! According to data monitoring and analysis, the operating rate of sampled slaughterhouses was around 9% at the beginning of 31, while the peak operating rate before the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays was 34.03%, indicating insufficient demand support ahead of the holidays. Household demand has not increased; changes in dietary habits, ample supplies of substitute products, and cautious restocking by downstream traders have contributed to high frozen pork inventories in the market. Slaughterhouses mostly produce according to sales, and the operating rate has struggled to rise!
Thus, under the pressure of excess supply and demand, hog prices are under pressure and falling. At present, the consumer market is lackluster, demand has edged down slightly, while pressure on the supply side remains considerable. In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate downward! However, as hog prices fall to around 4.9 yuan per jin, market resistance to lower prices may strengthen. Going forward, attention should be paid to the pace of sales from the breeding sector and changes in sentiment around secondary fattening. The live hog market may still reach an extreme and then reverse, with a chance of recovering and rising!
Citing a survey by an industry organization, 2026 year 10 month 16 day,Three-way crossbreedThe average price for standard-weight lean-type hogs sold is 9.79 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan from the previous day. Hog prices are mainly consolidating with a downward bias! However, hog prices have hit a new low since the second half of the year, and the market decline is “beyond expectations.” Hog prices have essentially fallen back to levels from the beginning of 5 month to the end of 6 month, down 12.3% year on year!
Specifically, across the northern and southern regions under national key monitoring, the highest average hog selling price is in Guangdong at 11.25 yuan/kg, while the lowest is in Xinjiang at 8.95 yuan/kg. Currently, only scattered areas in East China, Central China, and the two Guangxi-Guangdong regions have hog prices above 5 yuan/jin. In North China, Northeast China, Northwest China, and Southwest China, hog prices have all fallen into the “4-yuan era.” Quotations in the main low-price regions have fallen to around 9.25~9.8 yuan/kg, with the market showing a pattern of “declines across both north and south”!
According to market feedback, regarding current demand in China’s major consumer cities, Beijing and Shanghai: white-strip pork quotations in Beijing’s wholesale market are up or down 0.2 yuan, with average feedback on buying and selling; in Shanghai, white-strip pork is quoted at around 12.56~12.6 yuan/kg, with average trading activity and relatively ample supply. According to institutional research, the average price of the top three grades of white-strip pork in China is currently 13.51 yuan/kg. The market “white-hair price spread” remains at 3.72 yuan/kg, and losses at sampled slaughterhouses have deepened, with slaughterhouse pressures increasing again after the holiday!
In terms of the pace of hog marketings, in the overnight market, marketings decreased in East China and Southwest China, while increasing in Central China, Northwest China, and Northeast China! Feedback on the ease of slaughterhouses' procurement shows that in the Northeast market, producers were relatively active in marketing hogs, large-scale hog companies made only average progress toward their marketing plans, transaction prices were weak, and slaughterhouses procured hogs smoothly; in the East China and Central China markets, the pace of hog deliveries to slaughterhouses was slow at first and then accelerated, procurement difficulty was average, and willingness to market hogs remained; in the southern market, including Southwest China and South China, large-scale hog companies made fair progress toward their marketing plans, while feedback on hog purchasing and sales was unremarkable!
At present, the hog market is mainly in a stalemate with fluctuations. Bullish and bearish sentiment coexist, but bullish confidence is somewhat lacking, while bearish and neutral sentiment is relatively strong! In my view, the key reasons for this sharp “plunge” in hog prices, with the price center falling more than expected, are as follows:
On the one hand, based on the gradual reduction in the number of breeding sows last year, theory suggests that hog supply pressure will ease in 2026 10! However, according to industry surveys, planned marketings by large-scale hog companies in 10 increased by 1.91% month on month, meaning that marketings this month “increased rather than decreased”! The main factors behind the increased market supply are the high base of breeding sows in the earlier period and the rise in sow PSY, which improved the capacity to supply piglets and supported an increase in this month's supply of market hogs. In addition, last month, expectations for the two major holidays were widely bullish, leading producers to engage in secondary fattening and hold hogs back from market. Meanwhile, demand provided insufficient marginal support last month, culling of low-priced sows increased, and large-scale hog companies marketed hogs slowly, completing less than their average monthly marketing plans. This created an overlap with the marketing plans for 10!
On the other hand, demand has been weak during the peak season! Traditionally, during the “Golden September” period, domestic consumer demand is sluggish, and the seasonal recovery in demand is weak! According to data monitoring and analysis, the operating rate of sampled slaughterhouses was around 9% at the beginning of 31, while the peak operating rate before the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays was 34.03%, indicating insufficient demand support ahead of the holidays. Household demand has not increased; changes in dietary habits, ample supplies of substitute products, and cautious restocking by downstream traders have contributed to high frozen pork inventories in the market. Slaughterhouses mostly produce according to sales, and the operating rate has struggled to rise!
Thus, under the pressure of excess supply and demand, hog prices are under pressure and falling. At present, the consumer market is lackluster, demand has edged down slightly, while pressure on the supply side remains considerable. In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate downward! However, as hog prices fall to around 4.9 yuan per jin, market resistance to lower prices may strengthen. Going forward, attention should be paid to the pace of sales from the breeding sector and changes in sentiment around secondary fattening. The live hog market may still reach an extreme and then reverse, with a chance of recovering and rising!