一、行情复盘：节前冲高近30%，节后快速杀跌
中秋、国庆双节备货周期内，鸡蛋现货迎来一轮典型节日驱动型脉冲上涨，全国主产区均价同比抬升接近30%，本质是阶段性备货需求集中释放叠加前期供给偏紧共同推升。
国庆长假结束后，行情迅速反转。卓创资讯监测数据显示，截至10月9日，全国主产区鸡蛋日均价回落至4.06元/斤，本轮累计跌幅24.25%，较上月同期下跌20.7%，蛋价正式回归4元区间。分区域看，价格分化特征明显：山东全省鸡蛋销售均价9.84元/公斤，环比下降10.38%；大连地区蛋价5.16元/斤，环比小幅下行7.48%，同比仍维持21.32%的涨幅，体现主产区跌幅更深、销区价格韧性更强的格局。
This round of “rising first, then falling” is the standard pattern of seasonal holiday-market activity in the spot egg market: before the holidays, food processing companies and supermarkets secure supplies in concentrated purchases, bringing forward short-term demand; once stocking is complete, concentrated purchase orders disappear, consumption enters the traditional off-season, and the price center shifts down rapidly.
II. Farm profitability: prices retreat, but profits remain in a high range
Although egg prices have fallen sharply, industry profits have not yet fallen below the cost line and remain at a relatively high level compared with recent years. Monitoring by the Shandong Provincial Animal Husbandry General Station shows that the current egg-to-feed price ratio across the province is 3.29:1, up 13.45% year over year and down 10.38% month over month. The industry's full-cost range remains at 7.0–7.2 yuan/kg. A static calculation based on current prices and costs indicates that full-cycle profit per laying hen can still exceed 40 yuan.
The egg-to-feed price ratio is a key indicator for monitoring the profitability of layer farming; the higher the ratio, the greater the potential profit from farming.
Changes in profit structure directly alter producers’ expectations and behavior: during the high egg-price period in the first half of the year, profit per jin of eggs once exceeded 2 yuan, spurring strong enthusiasm for restocking and creating a shortage of chick resources; as spot prices declined, willingness to increase restocking cooled significantly. Producers at farms in Henan with a scale of 8 ten thousand birds reported that the industry is generally in a wait-and-see mode, with the key point of contention shifting to expectations for capacity and prices at the start of spring next year.
Changes in producers’ expectations will be transmitted through chick restocking to egg supply 4–5 months later, making this a core long-term variable in the egg cycle.
III. Underlying supply-and-demand dynamics: from tight balance to easing, with supply increases continuing to be released
The core driver of this downturn is a shift in the supply-and-demand balance:
Demand side: Holiday-related bullish factors have been fully priced in. Stockpiling for the two holidays has ended, and demand for industrial processing and purchases by food service channels have contracted at the same time. The market lacks sustained consumption support and is entering the traditional off-season in the fourth quarter. Only periodic restocking by traders when prices are low has provided a brief rebound, which cannot reverse the trend.
Supply side: Egg-laying rates are recovering + previously restocked hens are entering production in concentrated numbers. After autumn began, temperatures fell and summer heat stress eased, allowing egg-laying rates across laying flocks to recover and rise steadily. Chicks placed in the first half of the year in response to high prices have been entering the laying cycle successively since the fourth quarter. The increase in newly laying hens exceeds the reduction from culling older hens, and effective market supply continues to rise. Supply and demand have shifted from a tight balance before the holidays to a temporary surplus.
Zhuochuang Information analyst Liu Xu estimates that the national egg price will most likely fluctuate within the range of 10–3.88 yuan/jin in 4.15, with a monthly average of about 4 yuan/jin; the low point of the price correction is expected in the middle to latter part of 10. In the short term, traders buying the dip to replenish stocks can only bring a brief rebound; the overall downward trend remains unchanged.
Four. Fourth-quarter outlook: a bottom in 10, with year-end stocking driving a second upward move
Egg prices in the fourth quarter will show a clear two-stage pattern:
10 month: A phase of searching for a bottom amid fluctuations. As supply continues to come onto the market and coincides with the seasonal low in consumption, the price center will continue to move lower, and the low point of this round of correction is likely to be reached in mid-to-late 10 month.
11–12 months: Restocking drives a recovery. As advance stocking ahead of New Year’s Day and the Spring Festival gets underway, purchasing demand from food manufacturers and distribution channels is picking up, potentially pulling egg prices back onto an upward trajectory.
The cyclical perspective suggests that poultry farmers’ declining willingness to replenish their flocks will constrain supply in the first half of next year. In the short term, however, the pressure from capacity coming online as a result of high levels of flock replenishment earlier has yet to be fully absorbed, and the spot market is unlikely to escape downward pressure in 10 month.
Five. Industry insights
Large-scale farms: At this stage, avoid blindly increasing flock replenishment. Focus on dynamically managing the culling schedule for older hens, adjusting flock composition at opportune times based on prices and the egg-to-feed price ratio, and smoothing the risk of cyclical fluctuations. Avoid making emotionally driven expansion decisions based on short-term price rises or falls.
For trade and egg-processing businesses: During the spot-market downturn in 10, build safety stock in batches to avoid higher procurement costs from year-end stocking, and use seasonal price differences to optimize the timing of raw material purchases.
For cycle watchers: Eggs are a typical short-cycle product. The 4–5-month transmission period from chick placement to the start of laying means that current flock-replenishment decisions determine supply six months later. The current wait-and-see sentiment among producers is the most important leading indicator for forecasting the market in the spring of next year.