While the number of breeding sows is forecast to decline slightly in 2027, the total hog inventory will remain at nearly the same level as in 2026, at 8.64 million head. Pork production is also expected to be roughly on par with the previous year at 1.27 million MT CWE. Demand for pork is anticipated to remain solid going forward.
The number of hog farms has fallen by 8% from 2024, though the total number of hogs raised stayed nearly unchanged. Due to aging producers and a lack of successors, a growing number of small-scale farms are exiting business while still profitable. Approximately 70% of hogs raised in Japan are raised on operations with 3,000 or more head, and the trend toward consolidation of mid-sized operations into large-scale operations is expected to continue.
Against the backdrop of persistently high beef prices, pork is expected to remain as a cost-competitive animal protein in both retail and food service, with pork consumption in 2027 holding steady with the previous year.
Japan's pork imports in 2027 are forecast to decrease by 2% compared to 2026, reaching 1.46 million MT CWE. Although demand for imported pork remains strong, the sharp increase in imports during 2026 is expected to result in elevated beginning stocks for 2027, which will likely slow the pace of imports during the year.
North America remains Japan's primary supplier; however, imports of Canadian pork have risen sharply since 2024. The increase in Canadian pork imports is attributed to small and medium-sized Canadian packers newly entering chilled pork production for the Japanese market, as well as a strategic shift by Canadian pork packers toward lower pricing to compete more effectively against U.S. pork in the Japanese market.
For frozen pork, which accounts for approximately 50% of Japan's pork imports, imports from Spain have declined sharply in 2026, as Spain has been subject to import restrictions following confirmed outbreaks of African Swine Fever (ASF). As an alternative sourcing destination, Brazil has continued to increase its export volumes since 2025.
For processed pork products (15% of total imports), there appears to be a growing trend toward importing processed goods for certain items, driven by comparisons with the import costs of raw pork materials.
September 23, 2026/ USDA/ United States.
https://www.fas.usda.gov
