The pork trade in 2026 was strongly affected by two major developments: the detection of African swine fever (ASF) in Spain in November 2025, and the higher-than-expected slaughter of pigs in China as the sector reduced its herd. These factors increased the availability of pork for export among the main exporting countries and, consequently, put downward pressure on international prices.
Major importing markets, including Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, took advantage of ample supply during the first half of 2026. However, high domestic inventories are expected to slow the pace of imports through the end of the year and throughout 2027, intensifying competition among exporters.
ASF changes the flow of European Union exports
In November 2025, Spain confirmed cases of ASF in wild boars for the first time since 1994. Trade with several markets was immediately affected, including Japan (the second-largest market outside the European Union), Malaysia and Taiwan. These three markets continue to maintain restrictions on Spanish pork.
Meanwhile, other major export destinations, such as China and South Korea, quickly adopted regionalization, allowing pork from regions unaffected by the disease to enter. The Philippines, Spain’s fifth-largest market outside the European Union, formally recognized regionalization in May 2026.
Despite the detection of ASF, Spanish pork production increased year to date through June, as the country redirected a greater volume of products to other European Union member states. Spain also expanded its exports to South Korea, Vietnam and the United States.
Other European Union countries, including Denmark and France, partially made up for the absence of Spanish pork in markets with restrictions, such as Japan. The redirection of Spanish products to other European Union countries likely increased pork availability within the bloc, contributing to downward price pressure.
High supply in China reduces imports
According to industry information, China made significant reductions to its pig herd, bringing the number of breeding sows close to the target of 37,5 million head, in line with the government’s goal of stabilizing pork prices. However, pig slaughter increased more than expected at the beginning of 2026 as a result of herd reductions, leading to ample domestic pork supply and weaker demand for imported products.
Chinese pork imports fell by almost 30% through August 2026, compared with the same period in 2025, with purchases declining from virtually all major exporters. For 2027, Chinese pork imports are forecast to fall by 2%, totaling 820 thousand tonnes.
Importers increase purchases amid abundant supply
Through July, average unit prices for European Union pork exports fell by almost 9%, reflecting increased production in the bloc and weaker demand from China.
Brazilian pork unit values also fell by 2%, while those of US pork recorded a slight decline. Major importing markets responded to this situation by increasing their pork purchases. Through June, imports in Japan increased by 5%, while those in South Korea rose by 18%. In the Philippines, imports edged up by 1%, following record volumes in 2025 and a recovery in domestic production.
Pork stocks in these countries continued to rise through July. As a result, import momentum stagnated significantly in South Korea and the Philippines, while a decline in purchases is also expected in Japan in the second half of the year.
High inventories in these markets, combined with the forecast of lower imports by Japan and South Korea in 2027, are expected to intensify competition among the world’s leading exporters.
Outlook for global exporters in 2027
Global pork exports are expected to remain stable in 2027, following growth of 2% in 2026. U.S. exports are projected to grow 1% in 2027, compared with 2026.
Although U.S. exports are less concentrated in the Japanese, South Korean, and Philippine markets than those of other major exporters, reduced demand from these countries could put downward pressure on U.S. shipments.
In addition, the European Union and Brazil may seek to expand their exports to important U.S. markets in the Western Hemisphere. European Union pork exports are expected to fall to 2,95 million metric tons, reflecting lower production and increased competition in major international markets.
In 2025, more than 40% of European Union pork exports went to South Korea, China, Japan, and the Philippines. Since imports are expected to decline in most of these markets in 2027, European exporters are expected to seek opportunities in other destinations, especially African markets. European Union exporters may also take advantage of the 10 thousand metric ton tariff-free quota for Mexico under the Modernized Global Agreement between the European Union and Mexico, which is expected to enter into force by the end of 2026.
Brazilian pork exports are expected to grow 2% in 2027, a moderate increase compared with recent years. The oversupply of hogs reported in early 2026 put pressure on producer profitability and is expected to limit growth expectations for 2027. In 2025, more than 35% of Brazilian pork exports went to the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea. Like the European Union, Brazil is expected to seek to expand its exports beyond these strategic markets, especially to neighboring South American countries and African markets.
9 October 2026 / USDA / United States.
https://www.fas.usda.gov
