• PKO BP: The average wheat procurement price in the fourth quarter of 2026 will be 17-28 percent higher year on year (+11-17 percent year on year in the second quarter of 2026), while annual price growth of at least a dozen percent will also continue in the first quarter of 2027.
  • The EU, faced with exceptionally low corn harvests, will be forced to increase its imports—Igc forecasts that in the 2026/2027 season, they will be 26 percent higher year on year.

- We expect the average purchase price of wheat in the fourth quarter of 2026 to be higher by 17-28 percent year on year (+11-17 percent year on year in the second quarter of 2026), and annual price growth of at least a dozen percent to continue in the first quarter of 2027 as well. Developments in the geopolitical situation in the Black Sea are a significant risk factor for the forecasts and create conditions for considerable price volatility, according to the latest “Agro Nawigator” analysis. What is causing this?

Wheat prices in 2026

Analysts at PKO Bank Polski carefully analyzed the situation on global markets. They recalled that recently we had seen both a deterioration in forecasts for global grain production in the 2026/2027 season. This resulted from lower expectations for harvests in the EU, while forecasts for Argentina and Australia improved.

- According to the USDA’s October report, total global grain harvests in the 2026/2027 season may be lower by 2,5 percent year on year. Despite an upward revision to the forecast for corn harvests in the US, production there will be lower by 5 percent year on year, and in the EU by 16 percent year on year, they said in the report entitled “Agro Nawigator.”

The results reported by Statistics Poland were also recalled. It was also noted that total grain production in Poland in 2026 will be lower by 5 percent year on year (35,5 million tonnes).

- The harvest of basic grains, including mixed cereals, will fall by 6,2 percent year on year, indicating a relatively smaller decline in the corn harvest. Given the declines in production in France (-38 percent, according to the European Commission), Poland will be the EU’s largest producer of this grain, PKO BP said.

Difficult situation in the Black Sea basin

- The exchange of attacks by Russia and Ukraine on export infrastructure and ships in the Black Sea has severely restricted sales from the region. In August and September, the IGC cut its forecasts for Russian and Ukrainian grain exports in the 2026/2027 season by a total of 13,5 million tonnes to 85 million tonnes, which would mean a year-on-year decrease of 11 percent, while raising its forecasts for ending stocks in these countries by 16 million tonnes to 37 million tonnes, according to “Agro Nawigator.”

As reported below, export forecasts for Black Sea countries still appear to assume that an agreement may be reached and maritime shipments from the region may resume later in the season.

- If logistical problems persist, further downward adjustments cannot be ruled out. Data from Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy show that Ukrainian exports of cereals and pulses in the third quarter of this year were down 20 percent year on year, including wheat exports, which were down 41 percent year on year. Some sources (including SovEcon) point to a decline of more than 50 percent in Russian wheat exports, PKO BP analysts report.

Moreover, reduced supply from the Black Sea region could increase major importers’ interest in EU wheat, including grain from Poland.

- At the same time, amid exceptionally low corn harvests, the EU will be forced to increase its corn imports. IGC forecasts that in the 2026/2027 season, imports will be up 26 percent year on year, PKO BP reports.

What could happen in the grain market?

According to analysts from the Economic Analysis Department, amid weaker production expectations and limited supply from the Black Sea region, grain prices rebounded sharply – wheat contract prices (Euronext MATIF) rose by more than ten percent over the third quarter of this year and were higher by 27 percent year over year at the end of the quarter.

- Particular attention should be paid to corn prices – on a year-over-year basis, the price of contracts for this grain increased by more than 50 percent year over year. – it was reported.

Source: PKO BP