• PKO BP experts assess that excess supply in the EU and weakening exports are maintaining pressure on pig prices
  • In Poland, in the fourth quarter of 2026, the average purchase price of pigs may be 10–14 percent lower than a year earlier
  • Although prices may improve in 2027, rising feed costs and geopolitical risks may limit the profitability of production

According to Eurostat data cited by the authors of the forecast, pork production in the European Union, measured by carcass weight, from January to July 2026 was 1,4 percent higher year on year. The increase was driven primarily by Denmark, where production rose by 8,5 percent, Poland, with an increase of 3,5 percent, and Spain, where an increase of 2,5 percent was recorded.

However, forecasts by the US Department of Agriculture point to a gradual slowdown in production in the EU. In 2026, it is still expected to rise by 0,5 percent, while in 2027 a decline of 0,5 percent is possible.

The pig population is becoming increasingly varied

In mid-2026, a trend towards reducing pig populations was visible in many European Union countries, following slight increases observed in 2025. However, the situation varies from country to country.

Denmark is noteworthy, where the pig herd increased to 12,2 million head, reaching its highest level since 2021. This represents a year-on-year increase of 2,5 percent. Slight increases in pig populations were also recorded in Germany, by 0,6 percent, and in Poland, by 0,9 percent.

The situation was different in the Netherlands. The pig population there fell by 6,8 percent year on year, to a historically low level of 9,19 million head. This was lower than in Poland, which had not happened since 2011. In Spain, meanwhile, the pig population fell by nearly 2 percent year on year. One possible cause is the emergence of African swine fever at the end of 2025.

The unfavorable price situation is discouraging producers from expanding the scale of production. In addition, the decline in the number of sows in most of the leading producer countries may indicate limited potential for growth in EU production in the coming months.

EU exports: more meat, lower revenues

From January to July 2026, exports of pork from the European Union increased by 2,8 percent year on year in volume terms. At the same time, the value of foreign sales fell by 11 percent.

A significant problem remains weaker demand in markets outside the EU. EU pork shipments to China decreased by 29 percent year on year during the period analyzed. According to forecasts by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Chinese pork imports in 2027 may fall by a further 2 percent, following a forecast decline of 29 percent in 2026.

Lower imports are also expected in Japan and South Korea, where the forecast declines in 2027 are 2 percent and 3 percent, respectively. This means that, in the short term, EU exporters may continue to face limited demand in key foreign markets.

Pig prices remain under pressure

In the third quarter of 2026, pig prices remained low despite periodic fluctuations. The main factor remains excess supply in the EU market. In September, the price of fattening pigs in Germany fell to 1,45 euros per kilogram, which was 22 percent lower than a year earlier. Particularly sharp declines were recorded in Denmark, where pig prices fell by more than 40 percent year on year. At the same time, the country recorded the largest increase in the supply of live pigs in 2026.

In Poland, in the fourth quarter of 2026, the average purchase price of pigs may be 10–14 percent lower than in the corresponding period of 2025. An improvement in prices on a year-on-year basis can be expected only in 2027, alongside the forecast slowdown in production growth in the European Union.

Higher costs may reduce the profitability of production

Hog prices in the coming months will be influenced not only by meat supply but also by the situation on the feed market. The expected rise in grain prices in the 2026/2027 season, linked to forecast declines in harvests in the United States and the European Union, may increase production costs.

The geopolitical situation remains an additional risk factor. An escalation of armed conflict in the Black Sea region and possible restrictions on grain exports from Ukraine and Russia may put pressure on global feed commodity prices.

As a result, any improvement in purchase prices in 2027 may not fully translate into increased profitability of pig farming. Producers will also have to take into account rising feed costs and other expenses associated with maintaining herds.