With 10 halfway through the month, the domestic live hog market continued to fluctuate downward in the first half of the month. Demand continued its marginal decline, supply pressure remained high, and large frozen pork inventories added to the pressure. The seasonal turning point toward higher prices proved elusive, leaving farmers to endure steady losses. The live hog market remains in a phase of “winter.” However, with 10 halfway through the month and the weather gradually turning cooler, the average live hog price fell below 10 yuan per kilogram and continued to decline. Sentiment among producers strengthened slightly, and some market participants attempted to support prices. This latest price decline may have limited room to continue, and the market may see a reversal as conditions reach an extreme.
According to data from an organization, on 15 of 10, nationwideThree-way crossbredLean meat-type pigPig pricesThe average live hog price is 9.83 yuan per kilogram, down 0.03 yuan from yesterday. Hog prices have plunged, with the average price for standard-weight pigs falling into the “4-yuan range.” Farming losses have deepened further, with losses per head exceeding 200 yuan for leading mainstream hog producers. Hog prices are down more than 11% year over year!
By region, on 10/15, in the southern and northern markets, the average hog price in the 28 key regions of focus was close to 9.8 yuan/kg in Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin and other areas. Hog prices quoted for sales across the southern and northern markets nationwide hovered between 8.95 and 11.25 yuan/kg. Xinjiang had the lowest quotes, while Guangdong and Fujian had the highest! In traditional production and sales markets, current quotes were 9.5 to 9.55 yuan/kg in Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning; 9.75 to 9.8 yuan/kg in Shanxi and Hebei; 9.5 to 9.55 yuan in Shaanxi and Gansu; 9.55 yuan in Sichuan and Chongqing; 10 to 10.15 yuan in Shandong and Anhui; 10.2 to 10.3 yuan in Jiangsu and Zhejiang; 10.15 yuan in Henan; and 11.25 yuan/kg in Guangdong!
By region, on 10/15, hog prices across China’s northern and southern regions were generally stable with a slight weakening. Market sentiment was strongly inclined toward either expecting prices to fall or remain stable, while bullish sentiment edged up slightly. Hog prices may briefly show signs of bottoming out!
It is reported that recently, hog prices have shifted lower, with the market showing a larger-than-expected decline, mainly due to pressure from both supply and demand!
On the one hand, the supply of live hogs is ample! Since domestic commercial hog marketings are affected by the sow inventory 10 months earlier, the sow inventory at the end of last year stood at 3961 ten thousand head, up by 4 ten thousand head month on month, theoretically increasing this month's planned marketings! Moreover, last month, accelerated sow culling, sluggish secondary fattening in the market, poor pre-holiday stocking by slaughterhouses, and underperformance against planned marketings by large corporate hog producers all contributed to an increase in this month's planned marketings! The planned marketings of sampled large-scale hog producers are up by 1.91%, and data from Mysteel show that hog supply pressure remains high in 10 month!
Moreover, as breeding losses deepen, mainstream hog-fattening operations face greater financial pressure, increasing the need for producers to realize cash from sales and strengthening their willingness to market hogs. Meanwhile, heavier hogs at slaughter are curbing the widening of the price spread between standard-weight and heavyweight hogs, further limiting bullish market sentiment and accelerating the pace of capacity being brought to market;
On the other hand, consumer support has weakened! As the festive atmosphere fades, marginal demand support has weakened. Downstream demand for white-strip pork is sluggish, and slaughterhouses have seen no increase in orders. In addition, enthusiasm for secondary fattening is low in both northern and southern markets, and demand for standard-weight pigs in the live-pig market is insufficient. With slaughterhouses producing according to sales, procurement is generally manageable, and price-cutting sentiment is strong!
Based on this analysis, amid excess supply and demand, hog prices have remained weak. However, after the average price of standard-weight hogs fell to 9.83 yuan per kilogram, market sentiment began to shift. Livestock producers became less willing to sell, and independent pig farms showed a willingness to hold back sales and support prices. In addition, as the weather gradually cools, seasonal demand may gradually improve, potentially strengthening the floor for hog prices. Hog prices are expected to recover and rise in the coming period. Close attention should be paid to changes in sales by large-scale farming groups and sentiment around secondary fattening!
According to data from an organization, on 15 of 10, nationwideThree-way crossbredLean meat-type pigPig pricesThe average live hog price is 9.83 yuan per kilogram, down 0.03 yuan from yesterday. Hog prices have plunged, with the average price for standard-weight pigs falling into the “4-yuan range.” Farming losses have deepened further, with losses per head exceeding 200 yuan for leading mainstream hog producers. Hog prices are down more than 11% year over year!
By region, on 10/15, in the southern and northern markets, the average hog price in the 28 key regions of focus was close to 9.8 yuan/kg in Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin and other areas. Hog prices quoted for sales across the southern and northern markets nationwide hovered between 8.95 and 11.25 yuan/kg. Xinjiang had the lowest quotes, while Guangdong and Fujian had the highest! In traditional production and sales markets, current quotes were 9.5 to 9.55 yuan/kg in Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning; 9.75 to 9.8 yuan/kg in Shanxi and Hebei; 9.5 to 9.55 yuan in Shaanxi and Gansu; 9.55 yuan in Sichuan and Chongqing; 10 to 10.15 yuan in Shandong and Anhui; 10.2 to 10.3 yuan in Jiangsu and Zhejiang; 10.15 yuan in Henan; and 11.25 yuan/kg in Guangdong!
By region, on 10/15, hog prices across China’s northern and southern regions were generally stable with a slight weakening. Market sentiment was strongly inclined toward either expecting prices to fall or remain stable, while bullish sentiment edged up slightly. Hog prices may briefly show signs of bottoming out!
It is reported that recently, hog prices have shifted lower, with the market showing a larger-than-expected decline, mainly due to pressure from both supply and demand!
On the one hand, the supply of live hogs is ample! Since domestic commercial hog marketings are affected by the sow inventory 10 months earlier, the sow inventory at the end of last year stood at 3961 ten thousand head, up by 4 ten thousand head month on month, theoretically increasing this month's planned marketings! Moreover, last month, accelerated sow culling, sluggish secondary fattening in the market, poor pre-holiday stocking by slaughterhouses, and underperformance against planned marketings by large corporate hog producers all contributed to an increase in this month's planned marketings! The planned marketings of sampled large-scale hog producers are up by 1.91%, and data from Mysteel show that hog supply pressure remains high in 10 month!
Moreover, as breeding losses deepen, mainstream hog-fattening operations face greater financial pressure, increasing the need for producers to realize cash from sales and strengthening their willingness to market hogs. Meanwhile, heavier hogs at slaughter are curbing the widening of the price spread between standard-weight and heavyweight hogs, further limiting bullish market sentiment and accelerating the pace of capacity being brought to market;
On the other hand, consumer support has weakened! As the festive atmosphere fades, marginal demand support has weakened. Downstream demand for white-strip pork is sluggish, and slaughterhouses have seen no increase in orders. In addition, enthusiasm for secondary fattening is low in both northern and southern markets, and demand for standard-weight pigs in the live-pig market is insufficient. With slaughterhouses producing according to sales, procurement is generally manageable, and price-cutting sentiment is strong!
Based on this analysis, amid excess supply and demand, hog prices have remained weak. However, after the average price of standard-weight hogs fell to 9.83 yuan per kilogram, market sentiment began to shift. Livestock producers became less willing to sell, and independent pig farms showed a willingness to hold back sales and support prices. In addition, as the weather gradually cools, seasonal demand may gradually improve, potentially strengthening the floor for hog prices. Hog prices are expected to recover and rise in the coming period. Close attention should be paid to changes in sales by large-scale farming groups and sentiment around secondary fattening!