One. Current Spot Data and Trends Monitored by Souzhuwang
Today (2026year10month15 day, Thursday), monitoring by Souzhu.com shows that the national average ex-farm price of lean pigs was 9.89 yuan / kilogram (-0.96%);10month15Daily review basis 9.98 yuan / per kilogram. Spot prices continued to weaken, with the national average falling below 9.90 yuan / kg.
Today, the pig price sentiment monitor on Sogou Pig Network showed a marked lengthening of the bullish red bar and a shortening of the bearish green bar (2327 people participated)——After a prolonged period of extreme pessimism, market sentiment began to recover.
Core spot-market data
National average live-hog price for lean-type pigs 9.89 yuan / kilograms (-0.96%).Three-way crossbred piglet price 186.26 yuan / per head, down 1.91 yuan / head;price of a two-way crossbred sow 1533.33 yuan / head, rebounding for the second consecutive day (+45.83 yuan / head)——from 1400 The low point in yuan has rebounded 133 yuan, and the market’s capacity to absorb culled sows has strengthened. On the feed side, the purchase price of corn 2.34 yuan / / kilogram (-0.05), soybean meal 3.45 yuan / kg, compound feed 2.89 yuan / kilograms.
Regional trend details
The real-time ranking of average prices across provinces today shows that prices in the main producing regions continued to edge down:
- Main producing regions in the north generally 9.4—9.8 yuan: Hebei 9.76, Henan 9.75(+0.06), Shandong 9.74, Heilongjiang 9.60, Hunan 9.60(-0.40), Yunnan 9.60(-0.40), Guizhou 9.60, Gansu 9.60, Jilin 9.49, Liaoning 9.48, Shanxi 9.42, Shaanxi 9.40, Inner Mongolia 9.37.
- Prices in the high-priced southern region fell: Fujian 11.40(-0.20), Guangdong 11.20(-0.10); Zhejiang 10.60(unchanged), Jiangsu 10.50, Anhui 10.40.
- Xinjiang 9.00 Remains the lowest nationwide.
Trend summary
Today's spot market overall presents"Continued gradual declines, but futures began to resist the downward trend": National average price 9.89 yuan / per kilogram, with prices in major production areas generally falling into the range of 9.4—9.8 yuan range. However, it is worth noting that,the price of breeding sows rebounded for two consecutive days(1400→1450→1533). After a prolonged decline, the cull sow market showed clear signs of support, signaling that capacity reduction has entered a deeper phase.
II. Latest hog supply and demand monitored by Souzhuo.com
(I) Supply-side conditions
Supply"Short-term supply pressure remains, but marginal changes are emerging". The continued gradual decline in spot prices shows that short-term pressure from market hogs being sent to slaughter is still being released. However, the consecutive rebound in prices for replacement sows indicates that farms have begun to hold back from culling sows in the low-price range, and the pace of capacity reduction may accelerate.
(II) Demand-side conditions
Demand remains in the post-holiday off-season, with no notable bright spots.
(III) Summary of supply and demand balance
Today's supply and demand picture"Spot prices probe for a bottom while futures resist declines": Spot prices continued to edge down to 9.89, but futures losses narrowed sharply. The rebound in binary sows and the recovery in sentiment indicate that a consensus about the market being near the bottom is forming.
III. Daily performance of each live hog futures contract and commentary on the main contract
(I) Key daily details for each contract (trading date:2026 year 10 month 15 day; Exchange: Dalian Commodity Exchange)
Data sources: official closing data from the Dalian Commodity Exchange and Sina Finance (2026 year 10 month 15 day 15:00 Public data released after market close). Today, the decline in live hog futures narrowed significantly——The weighted hog index fell 1.19% to 10632 yuan / ton, with trading throughout the day 27.6 ten thousand lots, trading value 467.84 hundred million yuan. Contract declines 0.79%—2.60% vary:LH2707 fell 2.60%、LH2705 decrease 2.15%、LH2703 decrease 1.68%,LH2701 down 1.04%,LH2611 down 0.79%.The decline in nearby months has narrowed significantly, while deferred months remain weak..
|
Contract |
Closing price (yuan/tonne) |
Rise and fall |
Percentage change |
Today's open |
Highest |
Lowest |
Trading volume (lots) |
Open interest (lots) |
|
LH2611(Former main force/Approaching delivery) |
10070 |
-80 |
-0.79% |
10060 |
10115 |
9940 |
6.64 ten thousand |
8.12 ten thousand |
|
LH2701(new main force) |
10455 |
-110 |
-1.04% |
10435 |
10560 |
10395 |
12.32 ten thousand |
17.43 ten thousand |
|
LH2703 |
10240 |
-175 |
-1.68% |
10290 |
10375 |
10200 |
4.03 ten thousand |
12.87 ten thousand |
|
LH2705 |
11175 |
-245 |
-2.15% |
11275 |
11370 |
11140 |
1.54 ten thousand |
5.58 ten thousand |
|
LH2707 |
12005 |
-320 |
-2.60% |
12170 |
12265 |
11985 |
1.64 ten thousand |
3.64 ten thousand |
|
weighted live hogs |
10632 |
-128 |
-1.19% |
— |
10745 |
10632 |
27.60 ten thousand |
— |
(two) Core Focus——Short-covering signal confirmation:LH2701 Open interest falls for the first time (today’s key focus)
The most important signal in today’s market:LH2701 Open interest fell from 17.93 ten thousand contracts to 17.43 Ten thousand contracts; the first decline after three consecutive days of increased open interest.
#### I.LH2701 Overview of Open Interest Changes
|
Date |
Closing price |
Open interest |
Daily change |
Percentage change |
|
10Month9Day |
11210 |
14.67 ten thousand |
— |
— |
|
10month12day |
10885 |
16.15 ten thousand |
+1.48 ten thousand |
-3.24% |
|
10month13day |
10605 |
17.12 ten thousand |
+0.97 ten thousand |
-3.33% |
|
10month14day |
10425 |
17.93 ten thousand |
+0.81 ten thousand |
-2.43% |
|
10month15day |
**10455** |
**17.43 ten thousand** |
**-0.50 ten thousand** |
**-1.04%** |
Holdings decline for the first time + The decline narrowed significantly——This is what was forecast yesterday"a signal of concentrated short covering"has officially appeared.
#### II. Signal interpretation
1. Short sellers begin taking profits: After three consecutive days of increasing positions and pushing prices down,LH2701 open interest fell for the first time by 0.50 ten thousand contracts, indicating that some short sellers began closing positions for a profit at lower levels.
2. The narrowing decline confirms that the bears’ offensive is weakening:LH2701 The decline from -3.24%and-3.33%、-2.43% narrowed to -1.04%, with the amplitude narrowing from 2.95% narrowed to 1.56%.
3. LH2703 Positions were reduced in tandem: Open interest in the mid-month contract also declined 0.21 ten thousand contracts, indicating this was not limited to an individual contract.
4. But open interest in distant months is still increasing:LH2705,LH2707 Open interest is still increasing slightly, indicating that new short positions are still entering in distant months and that bears as a whole have not fully retreated.
#### Three. Changes in the spot-futures premium
In stock today 9.89 yuan / per kilogram (9890 yuan / ton):
- LH2701 Buy 10455, with the spot premium at approximately 565 yuan / ton(approximately yesterday 445);
- LH2611 closed at 10070，with a premium of approximately 180 yuan / ton(approximately yesterday 50).
The premium instead widened——Because futures declines narrowed while spot prices continued to fall, this indicates that futures are beginning to show resilience against declines.
#### Four. Outlook analysis
Overall assessment,The short squeeze on longs has largely ended, but a reversal still awaits spot prices stabilizing：
1. Short sellers have begun taking profits by closing positions, weakening the momentum for further steep declines;
2. But spot prices are still drifting lower (9.89), and a genuine futures rebound requires spot prices to stabilize;
3. Binary sows have rebounded for two consecutive days, and sentiment has recovered—an early signal of a bottoming area;
4. May enter a short-term phase"of futures resisting declines while spot prices form a bottom"of protracted tug-of-war.
(Three) Detailed commentary on the new front-month contract (LH2701)
Today’s new most-traded contract LH2701 Closing price 10455 yuan / per tonne, compared with yesterday’s settlement price of 10565 yuan / per ton decline 110 yuan / ton (-1.04%), the intraday high 10560 yuan / tons, the low 10395 yuan / tonnes, with an intraday range of approximately 1.56%, trading volume 12.32 ten thousand contracts, open interest 17.43 ten thousand contracts, turnover 206.34 hundred million yuan.
#### Core contract performance
LH2701 Opened today at 10435 yuan / tons, after rising in the early session to 10560 before falling back, reaching a low of 10395, and closing at 10455. Open interest fell from its historical high of 17.93 ten thousand lots, falling to 17.43 ten thousand lots. The current price is at a premium of approximately 565 yuan / ton.
#### Bull and Bear Strength Assessment and Open Interest Analysis
Today LH2701 Open interest decreased by 0.50 ten thousand contracts, marking the first decline after three consecutive days of increases. The drop was from -2.43% Narrowed to -1.04%, with the amplitude narrowing from 2.95% narrowed to 1.56%——The bears’ offensive has clearly weakened. But the bulls have not yet mounted an effective counterattack, and prices are still edging down.
#### Outlook and trading warnings
The short squeeze is largely over, and the market is entering a short-term bottoming phase. In terms of trading,do not chase shorts any further(short sellers have started closing positions); also avoid taking large positions to buy the dip (spot prices are still declining slowly). Wait for confirmation that spot prices have stopped falling+and futures have rebounded on increased volume.
(Four) Supplementary analysis of other contracts
#### 1. Original main contract (LH2611)
Today LH2611 contract closing price 10070 yuan / tons, down 0.79%, hitting an intraday low of 9940 yuan / per ton (at one point falling below 10000 integer threshold). Open interest decreased by 1.25 ten thousand lots to 8.12 ten thousand lots———As the delivery month approaches, funds are exiting at an accelerated pace. This contract is at a premium of approximately 180 yuan / ton.
#### 2. Near-month and distant-month contracts (LH2703、LH2705、LH2707）
Today LH2703 Contract closing price 10240 yuan / tonnes, down 1.68%;LH2705 contract closing price 11175 yuan / tons, down 2.15%;LH2707 futures contract closing price 12005 yuan / tons, down 2.60%. The declines in deferred months remain greater than those in nearby months, indicating that short positions in deferred months are still being opened, while short positions in nearby months have begun to be closed.
IV. Overall Market Summary and Risk Alerts for Today
(I) Overall Market Summary
Today, the live hog market as a whole showed"The pattern of spot prices continuing to edge down, futures losses narrowing, and short sellers beginning to close their positions": On the spot market, monitoring by Sohu.com showed the national average ex-farm price for lean hogs at 9.89 yuan / kg, continuing to weaken; however, on the futures market, the weighted average price of live hogs fell by only 1.19%,LH2701 Open interest fell for the first time 0.50 ten thousand contracts.
The key signal in today's market is that theshort squeeze phase is basically over：LH2701 After increasing positions for three consecutive days, it reduced them for the first time, with the decline narrowing from -3.24% to -1.04%. Binary sows rebounded for two consecutive days (1400→1533), emotional recovery, are all early signals of a bottoming area. However, spot prices are still edging down, and futures need spot prices to stabilize before they can truly reverse.
(two) Risk alert
1. Risk of continued gradual declines in spot prices: The national average price has fallen to 9.89, and if spot prices continue to fall, futures may still follow.
2. Repeated short-side risk: although LH2701 has begun reducing positions, deferred-month LH2705,LH2707 are still seeing position increases, so the shorts have not fully exited.
3. Risk of a longer-than-expected bottoming period: The end of short-covering does not mean an immediate reversal; the market may enter a prolonged period of bottoming and consolidation.
4. Policy and disease-related risks: Capacity regulation policies from the two ministries and the development of diseases in autumn and winter could both act as catalysts for a market reversal.
5. Operational riskIt is not advisable to chase the rally (short positions have already begun to close), nor to make a large, bottom-fishing position (spot prices have not stopped falling). Use the actual transaction prices paid by retail traders on Sohu Pig Network as the benchmark, and wait for spot prices to stop falling.+A confirmation signal for a high-volume rebound in futures.
Data source: Sohu Pig Network’s Live Hog Big Data Dashboard (national average prices for lean-type pigs sold for slaughter, real-time ranking of average prices by province, pig-price sentiment, piglets/sows/Feed prices,2026-10-15); Soozhu.com live pig monitoring and early warning (10month15daily review,2026-10-15); Dalian Commodity Exchange live hog futures closing data (Sina Finance,2026-10-15 15:00).