I. Spot Data and Trends Monitored by Soozhu.com Today
Today (2026year10month14day, Wednesday), monitoring by Souzhu.com shows that the national average price of lean pigs at farm gate was 9.98 yuan / kilograms (-0.92%);10month14Daily review basis 10.07 yuan / kilograms.The national average price officially fell below 10 yuan, quotations across the retail market weakened across the board.
It is worth noting that,This morning, bidding at the group's pig farms rebounded by approximately 1 Gross / kilogram, but quotations at the retail end did not follow suit and instead continued to fall to 9.98 yuan / kilogram——Group and smallholder quotes diverged noticeably. Group prices saw a brief rebound due to a month-end push and adjustments to the pace of large-scale hog shipments, while smallholders are still searching for a bottom under supply pressure.
Today’s pig price sentiment monitoring by Souzhu.com shows that the proportion expecting prices to rise tomorrow 33%, bearish ratio 66%(compared with yesterday 0%/100% has recovered somewhat,1780 people participated).
Core spot data
National average price of lean hogs at slaughter 9.98 yuan / kilograms (-0.92%).Three-way crossbred piglet prices 190.67 yuan / Head, slightly up 0.54 yuan / Head;Price of a binary sow 1450.00 yuan / head, rebound 33.33 yuan / head——Cull sow prices saw a technical rebound after a sharp drop the previous day. The purchase price of corn for feed was 2.39 yuan / kilograms (+0.01), soybean meal 3.45 yuan / kilograms, compound feed 2.90 yuan / kilograms.
Regional trend details
Today's real-time ranking of average prices by province shows that prices across a large area of the country's main production regions have fallen below 10 yuan:
- The main northern production regions have fully broken through 10 yuan: Shandong 9.94, Hebei 9.85, Henan9.83, Tianjin9.80, Hunan 9.80, Guangxi 9.80, Chongqing 9.80, Shanxi 9.74, Heilongjiang 9.69, Jilin 9.61, Gansu 9.60, Liaoning 9.54, Shaanxi9.50, Inner Mongolia9.50.
- Prices in the high-priced southern regions declined: Fujian 11.60(-0.30), Guangdong 11.30(-0.10 ); Anhui 10.60(+0.30), Zhejiang 10.60(-0.20), Jiangsu 10.40(-0.20).
- A partial rebound in the southwest：Yunnan 10.00(+0.20), Hubei 10.00(+0.07).
- Xinjiang 9.20 Remain the lowest nationwide.
Trend summary
Today's spot market overall shows"Nationwide, it has surpassed 10 Yuan: divergence between groups and retail investors": national average price on the retail investor side 9.98 yuan / kg officially fell below the whole-number threshold, but the group auction rebounded in the morning 1 The gross margin indicates that large-scale pig farms are already resistant to low prices. Sozhu.com continues to sound warnings"10 Why can’t pig prices rise in the month? Core suppressing factors——Supply-side increase""10 Monthly hog supply may increase month over month".
Two. Souzhu.com monitors the latest hog supply and demand situation
(One) Supply-side situation
Supply side"10 Monthly supply increased month on month, as the group accelerated livestock sales to generate cash". Since the holiday, breeding companies have accelerated hog sales to generate cash under pressure from losses, temporarily increasing market supply. Sogou Pig Network 10 month 13 published 《2026year9Monthly sales brief for listed pig farming companies: live pig prices fell, and performance revenue continued to decline,” listed pig farming companies9 Monthly selling prices fell, and performance revenue continued to decline. Operating pressure forced livestock to be shipped for slaughter. On the production capacity side, the price of crossbred sows rebounded today 33 yuan to 1450 yuan / head, indicating that the cull sow market found some support after a sustained decline.
(II) Demand-side situation
Demand side"A weak peak season and sluggish consumption"。搜猪网判断"The peak consumption season in the fourth quarter is unlikely to offset the pressure from increased supply."After the two festivals, pork consumption enters the off-season.
(Three) Summary of Supply and Demand Balance
Today's Supply and Demand Situation"Oversupply and prices hitting bottom 10 yuan or less": After spot prices fell below the psychological threshold of 10 yuan, the market entered a phase of contestation around the cost line.10 Hog farmers with less than one yuan in losses are facing mounting losses, which may trigger either of two extreme responses: holding back sales or accelerating marketings.
III. Hog Futures Contracts on the Day and Commentary on the Most-Active Contract
(I) Key Data for Each Contract on the Day (Trading date:2026 year 10 month 14 day; Exchange: Dalian Commodity Exchange)
Data source: Official closing data from the Dalian Commodity Exchange, Sina Finance (2026 year 10 month 14 Day 15:00 Public data after the close). Today, live hog futures plunged for the third consecutive day——The weighted hog index fell 2.32% to 10618 yuan / tons, trading throughout the day 29.8 ten thousand lots, transaction amount 508.02 hundred million yuan. Contract declines 1.57%—3.26% Unequal:LH2707 Fall 3.26% Leading the decline,LH2705 down 3.05%,LH2703 down 2.79%,LH2701 fall 2.43%,LH2611 decrease 1.57%.
|
Contract |
Closing price (yuan/ton) |
rise and fall |
change percentage |
Opening price |
Highest price |
Lowest price |
Trading volume (lots) |
Open interest (lots) |
|
LH2611(original front-month/Near closing) |
10030 |
-160 |
-1.57% |
10260 |
10300 |
10010 |
7.75 ten thousand |
9.37 ten thousand |
|
LH2701(New main force) |
10425 |
-260 |
-2.43% |
10600 |
10730 |
10415 |
13.84 ten thousand |
17.93 ten thousand |
|
LH2703 |
10260 |
-295 |
-2.79% |
10460 |
10595 |
10260 |
4.12 ten thousand |
13.08 ten thousand |
|
LH2705 |
11275 |
-355 |
-3.05% |
11515 |
11655 |
11255 |
1.72 ten thousand |
5.48 ten thousand |
|
LH2707 |
12170 |
-410 |
-3.26% |
12400 |
12590 |
12130 |
1.32 ten thousand |
3.56 ten thousand |
|
Weighted live hogs |
10618 |
-252 |
-2.32% |
— |
10924 |
10618 |
29.80 ten thousand |
— |
(II) Core Focus——Analysis of the causes of the sharp post-holiday drop and the persistence of short squeezes (today’s key focus)
The most important signal in today’s market:LH2701 A sharp rise in open interest followed by a crash for the third consecutive day, with open interest reaching 17.93 ten thousand contracts, a record high.
#### I.LH2701 Three-day Position Changes at a Glance
|
Date |
Closing price |
Open interest |
Daily change in open interest |
Cumulative change |
|
10month9day (last Friday) |
11210 |
14.67 ten thousand |
— |
— |
|
10month12Day (Monday) |
10885 |
16.15 ten thousand |
+1.48 ten thousand |
-325 |
|
10month13day (Tuesday) |
10605 |
17.12 ten thousand |
+0.97 ten thousand |
-280 |
|
10month14Day (Wednesday) |
10425 |
**17.93 ten thousand** |
+0.81 ten thousand |
-180 |
Cumulative increase in positions over three days 3.26 ten thousand lots, prices have fallen cumulatively 785 Point (-7.0%).
#### II. An Analysis of Why Prices Continued to Plunge and Hit New Lows After the Holiday
From 10 Month 8 Since the first day after the holiday, hog futures have plunged continuously, repeatedly hitting new lows. The reasons can be summarized under four main themes:
1. Supply-side growth is the fundamental root cause: Sogou.com has repeatedly published warnings"10 The monthly supply of live pigs may increase month on month""The peak consumption season in the fourth quarter will be unable to offset pressure from the release of supply"After the two holidays, the group accelerated livestock sales to generate cash, releasing concentrated short-term supply pressure.
2. Short sellers adding positions in line with the trend is the main funding-side factor：LH2701 Adding to positions for three days 3.26 Ten thousand contracts; the shorts are not passively following the decline, but are actively adding to positions to push prices down. Funds"Whoever is weaker gets picked on"——Spot prices have broken 10 They keep selling short as the price falls, adding to their positions with every drop.
3. The liquidation of retail investors who bought the dip and went long is a driving force.: After the holiday, retail dip-buying bulls appeared at low levels over several trading days (bullish on the market after the fourth quarter). These dip-buying funds became targets for bears and, after being wiped out one by one, triggered stop-losses, forming"decline—Buy at the bottom—Fall further—Stop-loss"negative feedback loop.
4. The divergence between futures and spot prices amplified the decline: Spot prices fell from 10.2 fell to 9.98(-2.2%), while LH2701 from 11090 fell to 10425(-6.0%), the futures decline is close to spot3 Times. Futures are falling not because of fundamentals, but because of capital.
#### Three, will short squeezes continue to play out?
Overall assessment:Short-term bears remain in control, but the room for further sharp declines is rapidly narrowing. Reasons:
- The premium has narrowed extremely:LH2701 The spot premium after the holiday 1000+ yuan / tonnes narrowed to approximately 445 yuan / ton;LH2611 The spot premium is only about 50 yuan / ton, and it is now almost at par. If futures continue to plunge, the premium protection will be lost.
- Risks of closing positions after a new all-time high in holdings:17.93 The short position of ten thousand lots has an average cost of approximately 11000—11200 with a floating profit of approximately 600—800 points. The higher the profit, the stronger the incentive to close positions all at once.
- Sentiment and sow price signals: The bullish proportion rose from 0% Repaired to 33%; the price of binary sows rebounded 33 yuan. These are early signals of the bottom of the market.
- Spot breaks 10 The game after the yuan:10 Losses among farmers with less than one yuan are worsening, potentially triggering large-scale reluctance to sell.
Conclusion: The short-term short squeeze may continue, but has now entered"The final drop"Stage. Once LH2701 Holdings begin to decline (short positions are being closed in a concentrated manner), triggering a rapid technical rebound.
(III) The new main contract (LH2701) Detailed Explanation and Commentary
Today's new main contract LH2701 Closing price 10425 yuan / tons, compared with yesterday's settlement price 10685 yuan / ton decline 260 yuan / ton (-2.43%), intraday high 10730 yuan / tons, minimum 10415 yuan / tons, with a full-day amplitude of approximately 2.95%, trading volume 13.84 ten thousand contracts, open interest 17.93 ten thousand contracts, trading amount 234.02 hundred million yuan.
#### Core performance of the contract
LH2701 Opening today 10600 Yuan / tons, briefly climbing to 10730(rebound in the Group's bidding1 gross improvement), but then bears exerted pressure again, with the low reaching 10415, closing at 10425Open interest hit a new all-time high.17.93 ten thousand lots. The current price is at a premium of approximately 445 yuan / tons.
#### Long and short position strength assessment and open interest analysis
Today LH2701 Increase in holdings 0.81 Ten thousand hands to 17.93 Ten thousand contracts, with open interest increasing for the third consecutive day as prices plunged. The early-session group auction rebound once drove futures up to 10730, but the bears quickly regained control of the market. Note:Today's amplitude 2.95% Significantly greater than the previous two days(10/12 Amplitude 2.09%,10/13 Amplitude 2.51%), indicating that disagreement between bulls and bears at lower levels is increasing.
#### Outlook and Trading Warnings
Short-term bears remain dominant, but 10400 Space below is limited. In terms of operation,Chasing breakouts is strictly prohibited.(The premium only 445 yuan/tonnes, and has fallen for three consecutive days); it is also not advisable to blindly buy the dip (short positions are still increasing). Closely monitor changes in open interest.——Once the position moves from 17.93 A decline in ten thousand lots signals concentrated short covering.
(Four) Supplementary analysis of the remaining contracts
#### 1. Original main contract (LH2611)
Today LH2611 Contract closing price 10030 yuan / tons, down 1.57%, the intraday low 10010 yuan / tons, has fallen below 10100The open interest decreased.1.19 Ten thousand hands to 9.37 Ten thousand hands——As the delivery month approaches, funds are accelerating their exit. The contract is at a premium of only about 50 yuan / tons, essentially at par with spot.
#### 2. Near-month and deferred-month contracts (LH2703、LH2705、LH2707)
Today LH2703 Contract closing price 10260 yuan / tons, down 2.79%;LH2705 Contract closing price 11275 yuan / tonnes, down 3.05%;LH2707 Contract closing price 12170 yuan / tons, down 3.26%The decline in the distant-month contract is greater than in the nearby-month contract, indicating that bears are also putting pressure on the distant-month contract, but its premium offers relatively greater protection.
IV. Overall Market Summary and Risk Alerts for Today
(I) Overall market summary
Today's live pig market overall presents"In-stock stock is broken 10 Yuan, futures fall for three consecutive sessions, and short sellers forcing longs to sell may be nearing the end."Pattern: Souzhu.com monitors the national average price of lean hogs sold for slaughter in the spot market 9.98 yuan / kilograms, officially fell below 10 The whole-number mark; the group’s auction rebounded in the morning1 However, retail demand continued to weaken. On the futures side, weighted hog prices fell 2.32%,LH2701 Increased holdings to 17.93 A record high of ten thousand hands.
The core signal in today’s market isLH2701 A sharp drop in open interest for the third consecutive day：Cumulative increase in positions over three days 3.26 Ten thousand lots, down by 785 points. The reasons for the sharp post-holiday drop were the combined effects of increased supply, short sellers adding positions in the direction of the trend, retail investors who tried to buy the dip being squeezed out, and divergence between futures and spot prices. However, as the premium narrowed to 445 yuan/tons,LH2611 Broadly balanced, the squeeze on short positions is nearing its final stage.
(II) Risk Warning
1. Short sellers continue to weigh on risk:LH2701 Position held 17.93 A record high of ten thousand lots; short-term bears may still push lower 10400、10300.
2. Risk of a rebound driven by concentrated short coveringAfter three consecutive days of falling prices as open interest increased, shorts are sitting on substantial profits. Once positions begin to decline, this could trigger a rapid rebound.This is currently the risk that requires the most vigilance.——Chasing a short at the bottom may leave you trapped in an instant if the market rebounds..
3. In-stock stock break 10 Post-yuan gaming risks: Main production area is broken 10 After the yuan, losses for farmers have worsened, potentially triggering large-scale reluctance to sell. A rebound in spot prices will drive a recovery in futures.
4. Supply-side pressure risk: Sogou.com warning 10 Monthly supply increased month on month, and hog prices remain under pressure in the short term.
5. Policy and epidemic-related variable risks: Capacity-control policies from the two ministries and commissions, as well as the development of autumn and winter diseases, may both become catalysts for a market reversal.
6. Operational risk: The squeeze is nearing its end; strictly prohibited in 10400 Short from below; use the actual transaction prices of individual farmers on Soozhu.com as an anchor, and wait for a signal that positions are declining before considering a direction.
Data source：Sow Network Live Pig Big Data Dashboard (National Average Price for Lean Hogs Sold, Real-Time Provincial Average Price Rankings, Pig Price Sentiment, Piglets/sow/Feed prices,2026-10-14); Souzhu Network pig monitoring and early warning (10month14Daily review,2026-10-14）；Dalian Commodity Exchange hog futures closing data (Sina Finance,2026-10-14 15:00).