Pork trade in 2026 has been greatly impacted by two major events: the November 2025 finding of African swine fever (ASF) in Spain, and stronger than expected China slaughter as the industry reduced swine inventory. These events led to increased available supplies for export from major exporters and ultimately softened international pork prices. Major import markets, including Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, took advantage of ample supplies through the first half of 2026. However, large domestic stocks are expected to dampen import pace through the end of the year and into 2027, leading to increasing competition among exporters.
ASF shifts EU exports
In November 2025, Spain declared wild cases of ASF for the first time since 1994. Trade was immediately disrupted to several markets, including Japan (the second largest non-EU market), Malaysia, and Taiwan. These three markets continue to maintain restrictions on pork from Spain. However, other major export markets quickly implemented a disease-based regionalization including China and South Korea, which allow entry of pork from unaffected regions. The Philippines, Spain’s fifth largest non-EU market, formally recognized regionalization in May 2026. Despite the finding of ASF, Spain’s pork production increased this year through June as Spain moved more product to EU member states. Spain also expanded exports to South Korea, Vietnam, and the United States. Other EU member states, including Denmark and France, have partially backfilled Spanish pork in restricted markets including Japan. The reallocation of Spanish product to EU member states likely boosted available EU supplies and pressured pork prices lower.
Ample China supplies drive imports lower
China has reportedly made meaningful reductions to overall swine inventories, bringing sow stocks closer to their 37.5 million head target, and in line with the government’s goal to stabilize pork prices. However, China slaughter increased more than anticipated in early 2026 as hog inventories were reduced, leading to abundant domestic pork supplies and weak demand for imported pork. China pork imports fell nearly 30% through August 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, with lower imports from nearly all major exporters. In 2027, China pork imports are anticipated to decline 2% to 820,000 tons.
Importers boost purchases on abundant supplies
Through July, EU pork export unit values declined nearly 9% on stronger EU production and weak China demand. Unit values also declined 2% for Brazilian pork and fractionally for U.S. pork. Key markets responded with higher purchases of pork. Through June, Japan imports increased 5% and South Korea imports increased 18%. Philippines imports increased modestly by 1% after record imports in 2025 and rebounding domestic production. Pork stocks in these countries continued to grow through July. As a result, import pace has notably stalled for South Korea and the Philippines and is expected to soften for Japan in the second half of the year. Elevated pork stocks in these markets and forecast lower 2027 imports in Japan and South Korea are likely to heighten competition for major exporters.
2027 outlook for global exporters
In 2027, global pork exports are forecast to be unchanged, following a 2% increase in 2026. U.S. pork exports in 2027 are forecast 1% higher than 2026. While U.S. exports are less concentrated than other major exporters to Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, reduced import demand from these markets may put downward pressure on U.S. exports. Additionally, the EU and Brazil may seek to expand exports to important U.S. markets in the Western Hemisphere.
EU pork exports are forecast down at 2.95 million tons given lower production and heightened competition in major export markets. Over 40% of EU pork exports were destined for South Korea, China, Japan, and the Philippines in 2025. As imports are expected to soften from most of these markets in 2027, EU exporters will seek to expand elsewhere, particularly to African markets. EU exporters may also fill the 10,000 metric ton duty free quota with Mexico allocated under the EU-Mexico Modernised Global Agreement which is expected to go into effect by the end of 2026. Brazil pork exports are forecast 2% higher in 2027, a modest growth compared to recent years. Reported oversupply of hogs at the beginning of 2026 has pressured producer profitability and is expected to dampen growth expectations for 2027. Over 35% of Brazil pork exports in 2025 were shipped to the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea. Similar to the EU, Brazil will likely seek to increase exports outside of these key markets, particularly to neighbors in South America as well as markets in Africa.
October 9, 2026/ USDA/ United States.
https://www.fas.usda.gov
