• PKO BP: The average wheat procurement price in the fourth quarter of 2026 will be 17-28 percent higher year on year (+11-17 percent year on year in the second quarter of 2026), and annual price growth of at least a dozen percent will also continue in the first quarter of 2027.
  • The EU, facing exceptionally low maize harvests, will be forced to increase its imports. IGC forecasts that in the 2026/2027 season, they will be 26 percent higher year on year.

- We expect the average purchase price of wheat in the fourth quarter of 2026 to be 17-28 percent higher year on year (+11-17 percent year on year in the second quarter of 2026), and annual price growth of at least a dozen or so percent to continue in the first quarter of 2027 as well. Developments in the geopolitical situation in the Black Sea are a significant risk factor for the forecasts and create conditions for considerable price volatility, according to the latest “Agro Nawigator” analysis. What is causing this?

Wheat prices in 2026

Analysts at PKO Bank Polski carefully analyzed the situation on global markets. They recalled that recently we have seen both a deterioration in forecasts for global cereal production in the 2026/2027 season. This resulted from lower expectations for harvests in the EU, while forecasts for Argentina and Australia improved.

- According to the October USDA report, total global cereal harvests in the 2026/2027 season may be 2,5 percent lower year on year. Despite the upward revision to forecasts for corn harvests in the US, its production in that country will be 5 percent lower year on year, and in the EU 16 percent lower year on year, they said in the report titled “Agro Nawigator.”

The results reported by Statistics Poland were also recalled. It was also noted that total cereal production in Poland in 2026 will be 5 percent lower year on year (35,5 million tonnes).

- The harvest of basic cereals together with cereal mixtures will fall by 6,2 percent year on year, indicating a relatively smaller decline in the corn harvest. With production falling in France (-38 percent, according to the European Commission), Poland will be the EU’s largest producer of this cereal, PKO BP reported.

Difficult situation in the Black Sea basin

- The exchange of attacks by Russia and Ukraine on export infrastructure and ships in the Black Sea has severely curtailed sales from the region. In August and September, the IGC cut its forecasts for Russian and Ukrainian grain exports in the 2026/2027 season by a total of 13,5 million tonnes to 85 million tonnes, which would mean a year-on-year decline of 11 percent, while raising its forecasts for ending stocks in these countries by 16 million tonnes to 37 million tonnes, according to “Agro Nawigator.”

As reported further, export forecasts for Black Sea basin countries still appear to assume the possibility of an agreement and the resumption of maritime shipments from the region later in the season.

- If logistical problems persist, further downward revisions cannot be ruled out. Data from Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy show that Ukrainian exports of grain and legumes in the third quarter of this year were down 20 percent year on year, including wheat, which was down 41 percent year on year. Some sources (including SovEcon) point to a decline of more than 50 percent in Russian wheat exports, PKO BP analysts report.

Moreover, reduced supply from the Black Sea region could lead to increased interest among major importers in EU wheat, including grain from Poland.

- At the same time, given the exceptionally low maize harvest, the EU will be forced to increase its imports. The IGC forecasts that in the 2026/2027 season they will be higher by 26 percent year on year, PKO BP reports.

What could happen in the grain market?

According to analysts from the Economic Analysis Department, amid worse production expectations and limited supply from the Black Sea region, grain prices rebounded sharply – wheat futures (Euronext MATIF) rose by a dozen or so percent over the third quarter of this year, and at the end of the quarter were higher by 27 percent year on year.

- Corn prices deserve particular attention – year on year, the price of futures contracts for this grain rose by more than 50 percent year on year. – it was reported.

Source: PKO BP