Just one month ago, eggs were still the “price-hike stars” attracting attention at the market, with retail prices breaking into the “6-yuan range.” Netizens joked, “Now tomatoes are the ones who can’t afford to go with eggs.”Now, this “rocket egg” is rapidly “cooling off,” with prices falling into the “4 yuan range.”Egg prices went from being “the most expensive in ten years” to facing downward pressure in less than a month. Industry insiders say there is still room for a slight decline in egg prices.
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Before the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day double holiday in 9, egg prices surged again, with the national average nearly 30% higher than in the same period last year. But once National Day was over, the situation changed. According to monitoring by the commodity analysis firm Zhuochuang Information,As of 10/9, the daily average price of eggs in the country’s main production areas was 4.06 yuan per jin, with a cumulative decline of 24.25% and a decline of 20.7% compared with the same period last month.
As the National Day holiday comes to an end, the “holiday effect” has noticeably diminished, and egg consumption has entered its traditional seasonal off-season. The latest statistics released by the Shandong Provincial Animal Husbandry General Station show that,This week, the average egg selling price across the province was 9.84 yuan per kilogram, down 10.38% week over week.
Egg prices in Dalian fell slightly month on month and rose sharply year on year. The egg price was 5.16 yuan, down 7.48% month on month and up 21.32% year on year.
Egg prices have fallen, reducing the profitability of layer farming, but it remains in a high-profitability range compared with recent years. According to monitoring data, the province's egg-to-feed price ratio this week was 3.29:1, up 13.45% year on year and down 10.38% week on week. Currently, the full cost of layer farming is approximately 7.0-7.2 yuan/kg, and profitability remains relatively high.Based on current prices and costs, future layer farming is projected to yield a profit of more than 40 yuan per bird.
Egg prices have fallen back to the “4-yuan era”The decline is not over yet
Egg prices have fallen back to the “4-yuan era,” but industry insiders believe this downturn is not over yet. A layer chicken farmer in Henan told the reporter that his farm had 8 ten thousand chickens in stock. When egg prices were high in the first half of the year, the profit per jin once exceeded 2 yuan. “Back then, so many people were replenishing their flocks that you couldn’t even place an order for chicks.”Egg prices have come down now, and noticeably fewer people are restocking. Everyone is trying to figure out what the market will be like when spring comes next year.”
With demand declining and supply increasing, egg prices are naturally falling back. Liu Xu expects egg prices in month 10 to fluctuate between 3.88 yuan per jin and 4.15 yuan per jin, with a monthly average of about 4 yuan per jin. “When egg prices are low, some traders may take the opportunity to stock up a little, and prices may briefly rebound, but the overall trend is still downward,” he said.
Looking ahead, the laying rate of hens is gradually recovering, increasing the market supply of eggs. The supply-demand balance is shifting from tight equilibrium to a looser state, and the center of gravity for egg prices is expected to continue moving lower, with a pullback low occurring in the middle to latter part of 10月. From 11月 to 12月, driven by stocking and consumption for New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, egg prices are expected to enter an upward trend again.