It is understood that in the domestic live hog market, although capacity reduction gradually began after the sow inventory rose to 4074 ten thousand head at the end of 2024, sow inventory fell to 3961 ten thousand head at the end of last year, and capacity reduction gradually accelerated in the fourth quarter of last year! In theory, as the fourth quarter of 2026 begins, marginal pressure from hog supply will also gradually ease, and the benefits of capacity reduction will gradually materialize. The live hog market may reach an inflection point for a seasonal rise! Unfortunately, although sow inventory reduction is gradually accelerating, the increasing concentration of the domestic farming industry and a substantial increase in production efficiency—especially a substantial rise in sow PSY values and a substantial increase in the number of piglets supplied per sow—have offset the benefits of reduced sow production. The live hog market still faces an imbalance between production and sales!
According to research and analysis by industry organizations, in 2026, in month 9, large-scale pig enterprises planned to market 1494.77 ten thousand head, with a plan completion rate of 99.01%. Group pig enterprises had a relatively low completion rate for their planned marketings, mainly because the marginal recovery in demand during the month fell short of expectations. In addition, in month 9, as pig-farm disease outbreaks increased and the farming sector continued to incur losses, losses from sow farming deepened. The market accelerated the culling of low-efficiency sows, further affecting the marketing of standard-weight hogs and worsening the slow pace of marketings by farmers. The live hog market still faces a backlog of production capacity!
According to the latest news, in month 10, SteelHome data monitoring shows that 173 sampled hog companies plan to market 1508.18 ten thousand head this month, an increase of 1.9% month on month. Although there are 1 more marketing days this month, and the average daily marketing plan is slightly lower month on month, because the pace of marketing was slow at the beginning of the month, supply pressure for live hogs will remain evident in the middle and latter part of this month!
In particular, domestic hog fattening is in an industry-wide loss-making phase,Hog feedThe ratio remains low, and mainstream self-breeding and self-rearing hog producers may incur losses of around 200~500 yuan per finished hog sold, as farmers face a need to recover funds! Recent feedback from local market participants indicates that, although hog prices continue to trend downward, both independent producers and large-scale hog enterprises remain strongly inclined to sell. Commercial hog supplies are ample, and slaughterhouses in northern and southern regions are finding it easy to procure hogs. Some hog enterprises are still falling short of their daily sales targets!
Meanwhile, seasonal demand has entered its peak season, but actual demand provides only limited marginal support! In particular, after the National Day holiday, demand for dining out and dine-in meals has cooled, the concentrated movement of people has come to an end, and follow-up demand for pork consumption has been lackluster! Currently, the operating rate of sampled slaughterhouses is 30.22%, providing only limited marginal support for demand! Moreover, amid considerable pressure from the supply outlook, the price spread between standard-weight and heavy-weight hogs has recently narrowed, the average weight of hogs shipped to market has continued to increase, and the market lacks any clear signs of second-fattening operations entering the market!
In view of this, amid changes in supply and demand, the hog market has shown a lackluster trend! Citing institutional data analysis, as of 10 month 14Three-way crossbred pigsThe average price for standard lean pigs sold for slaughter fell to 9.86 yuan per kilogram, down 0.13 yuan from yesterday. The live pig market continued its fluctuating downward trend! Market sentiment remained bearish, and pig prices fell by nearly 11% year over year. The average live pig price returned to “pre-Liberation” levels, with quotations hitting a new low for this period and the market returning to the “4-yuan era”!
Looking ahead, with ample hog supplies, farmers facing strong pressure to recoup funds and a greater willingness to sell, weaker sentiment toward secondary fattening, and insufficient marginal support from consumption, the market still faces a volatile downward trend, and the center of hog prices may continue to fall! However, if the center of hog prices continues to fall, this is bound to prompt more resistance to lower prices and reluctance to sell. Meanwhile, as the average price of standard-weight hogs declines, bargain-hunting sentiment in the market may strengthen again. Close attention should be paid to changes in the pace of market supply and demand!
According to research and analysis by industry organizations, in 2026, in month 9, large-scale pig enterprises planned to market 1494.77 ten thousand head, with a plan completion rate of 99.01%. Group pig enterprises had a relatively low completion rate for their planned marketings, mainly because the marginal recovery in demand during the month fell short of expectations. In addition, in month 9, as pig-farm disease outbreaks increased and the farming sector continued to incur losses, losses from sow farming deepened. The market accelerated the culling of low-efficiency sows, further affecting the marketing of standard-weight hogs and worsening the slow pace of marketings by farmers. The live hog market still faces a backlog of production capacity!
According to the latest news, in month 10, SteelHome data monitoring shows that 173 sampled hog companies plan to market 1508.18 ten thousand head this month, an increase of 1.9% month on month. Although there are 1 more marketing days this month, and the average daily marketing plan is slightly lower month on month, because the pace of marketing was slow at the beginning of the month, supply pressure for live hogs will remain evident in the middle and latter part of this month!
In particular, domestic hog fattening is in an industry-wide loss-making phase,Hog feedThe ratio remains low, and mainstream self-breeding and self-rearing hog producers may incur losses of around 200~500 yuan per finished hog sold, as farmers face a need to recover funds! Recent feedback from local market participants indicates that, although hog prices continue to trend downward, both independent producers and large-scale hog enterprises remain strongly inclined to sell. Commercial hog supplies are ample, and slaughterhouses in northern and southern regions are finding it easy to procure hogs. Some hog enterprises are still falling short of their daily sales targets!
Meanwhile, seasonal demand has entered its peak season, but actual demand provides only limited marginal support! In particular, after the National Day holiday, demand for dining out and dine-in meals has cooled, the concentrated movement of people has come to an end, and follow-up demand for pork consumption has been lackluster! Currently, the operating rate of sampled slaughterhouses is 30.22%, providing only limited marginal support for demand! Moreover, amid considerable pressure from the supply outlook, the price spread between standard-weight and heavy-weight hogs has recently narrowed, the average weight of hogs shipped to market has continued to increase, and the market lacks any clear signs of second-fattening operations entering the market!
In view of this, amid changes in supply and demand, the hog market has shown a lackluster trend! Citing institutional data analysis, as of 10 month 14Three-way crossbred pigsThe average price for standard lean pigs sold for slaughter fell to 9.86 yuan per kilogram, down 0.13 yuan from yesterday. The live pig market continued its fluctuating downward trend! Market sentiment remained bearish, and pig prices fell by nearly 11% year over year. The average live pig price returned to “pre-Liberation” levels, with quotations hitting a new low for this period and the market returning to the “4-yuan era”!
Looking ahead, with ample hog supplies, farmers facing strong pressure to recoup funds and a greater willingness to sell, weaker sentiment toward secondary fattening, and insufficient marginal support from consumption, the market still faces a volatile downward trend, and the center of hog prices may continue to fall! However, if the center of hog prices continues to fall, this is bound to prompt more resistance to lower prices and reluctance to sell. Meanwhile, as the average price of standard-weight hogs declines, bargain-hunting sentiment in the market may strengthen again. Close attention should be paid to changes in the pace of market supply and demand!