- PKO BP points to weaker forecasts for cereal production in the EU and Poland, as well as the impact of attacks in the Black Sea region on the supply and prices of wheat and corn.
- The bank forecasts that the average procurement price of wheat in the fourth quarter of 2026 will be 17–28 percent higher year on year, and that increases may continue in the first half of 2027.
- The report describes pressure on milk, poultry and pig prices, as well as declines in fruit, vegetable and sugar harvests, which may increase the risk of higher food prices.
Analysts noted that in the third quarter of 2026, forecasts for cereal production in the EU deteriorated. According to estimates by Statistics Poland (GUS), Poland’s domestic cereal production will be 5 percent lower this year than a year earlier, at 35,5 million tonnes. At the same time, attacks by Russia and Ukraine on ships and export infrastructure in the Black Sea have reduced the region’s grain supply, leading to an increase in wheat and corn prices.
PKO BP forecasts that the average purchase price of wheat in the fourth quarter of 2026 will be higher by 17-28 percent than a year earlier, and price increases may continue in the first half of 2027 as well.
Grains, the Black Sea and wheat prices: what is driving the market?
According to the report, the situation on the dairy market remains weak. High production among major exporters and lower demand, especially from China, drove down dairy product prices. Analysts, however, point to the first signs of a recovery in the milk protein segment and a rebound in butter prices at the end of the third quarter.
In the poultry sector, Poland remains one of the main drivers of production growth in the EU. At the same time, domestic producers are facing growing competition in international markets, including from Brazil and China. In September, purchase prices for chickens were 18 percent lower than a year earlier.
Analysts expect the average poultry purchase price according to GUS to be lower by 6-10 percent year on year. Rising feed costs, associated with increases in grain prices in the third quarter of this year, may weigh on profitability, which could lead to constraints on production growth, although it remains relatively high.
Milk, poultry and feed: where is cost pressure visible?
Analysts also assessed that hog prices remain under pressure from excess supply and weak demand from China. In the fourth quarter, prices may be 10-14% lower than a year earlier, while an improvement is expected only in 2027. Cost pressures will push prices upward, linked, among other things, to increases in feed prices—grain prices are likely to rise due to lower global production in the 2026/27 season (lower harvests in the US and the EU) and geopolitical factors (an escalation of hostilities in the Black Sea and restrictions on grain shipments from Ukraine and Russia).
The report also points to a marked decline in fruit and vegetable harvests. According to Statistics Poland (GUS), this year's tree fruit production may be just under 17% lower, while the apple harvest may be 18% lower. The situation is particularly poor in the raspberry market: the harvest fell by 24% and was the lowest in 19 years.
Harvests of field vegetables and potatoes are also expected to be lower. According to estimates, potato production in Poland will fall by more than 15%, and limited supply should support price increases in the coming months.
Fruit, vegetables and sugar: what are the harvest forecasts for Poland and the EU?
According to analysts, similar trends are visible in the sugar market. Falling production in Brazil, Thailand and the EU, alongside rising consumption, increases the risk of a global raw material deficit. According to forecasts European Commission EU sugar production will fall in the 2026/27 season by 19 percent, and in Poland by 14 percent, which is conducive to rising prices.
