The live hog market is sluggish, and piglet prices are even weaker, having recently experienced a sharp plunge. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the national average piglet price in the 9 month, 5 week, was 19.77 yuan/kg, down 2.1% from the previous week and 30.0% year over year. In other words, a 15-jin piglet costs less than 150 yuan.
In theory, such low restocking costs should have buyers flocking to the market. In reality, however, piglets are hard to sell, with few buyers showing interest.
The main reason piglet prices have fallen so far without attracting bargain hunters is the prolonged slump in live hog prices.
Live hogs are currently priced at around 5 yuan per jin, so fattening purchased piglets is already unprofitable. If farmers restock during this period, the fattening cycle of 4 to 6 months will end just as the post-Spring Festival peak consumption season begins, when hog prices are generally sluggish or falling. As a result, nobody is willing to take the risk. Even though piglets are cheap now, nobody wants to buy at the bottom and gamble on the market. Moreover, the period of losses has already exceeded 9 months, and everyone’s cash flow has long been in a high-risk state.
Of course, this situation is mostly seen among ordinary farmers, as large-scale livestock companies generally breed and raise their own pigs. They therefore do not need to buy piglets; they fatten their own piglets and may even sell more piglets when prices are high. In addition, sow-farming efficiency is improving, and piglet supply is already increasing.
At present, farmers have little enthusiasm for restocking, while large pig companies breed and raise their own pigs. Piglet prices are therefore expected to remain sluggish in the short term.
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