I. Spot Data and Trends Monitored by Soozhu.com Today
Today (2026year10month9day, Friday), monitoring by Sogou Pig Network shows that the national average price for lean hogs sold for slaughter is 10.17 yuan / kg (-0.32%);10month9Daily assessment basis (collected the previous day): 10.20 yuan / kg, unchanged from yesterday. Spot prices have held steady for two consecutive days at 10.20 yuan / The price per kilogram moved sideways along a key support line, neither continuing the gradual decline during the National Day holiday nor rebounding. The tug-of-war at the bottom was pronounced.
Today, Soozhu.com's hog price sentiment monitor shows that the percentage expecting prices to rise tomorrow is 50%、bearish percentage 50%（compared with yesterday's bullish 0%/Bearish 100% Significantly recovered, bullish +50pct,1969 people participated)——Retail sentiment quickly recovered from extreme pessimism to a balance between bulls and bears, echoing yesterday’s bullish probing in the futures market near the close.
Key Spot Market Data
National Average Price of Lean Hog Shipments 10.17 yuan / kg (-0.32%),10month9Daily review basis 10.20 yuan / kg, hog-to-corn price ratio 4.4:1(compared with yesterday +0.04）。Three-way crossbred piglet prices 190.00 yuan / per unit, down from yesterday by 4.50 yuan / head, after a sharp rise yesterday, it gave back a little today;Price of breeding sows1450.00 yuan / Head, rebounded compared with yesterday 160.00 yuan / Head, recovering today after yesterday’s sharp drop. Piglet and sow prices fluctuated sharply in a single day, reflecting disorderly signals on the production-capacity side and unsettled market sentiment. The corn purchase price on the feed side 2.33 yuan / kg (-0.04), soybean meal 3.46 yuan / kg, feed mix 2.89 yuan / kg.
Regional trend details
Today's real-time ranking of average prices by province shows that the regional picturefeatures mixed gains and declines, a rebound in the southwest, and weakness in the north.
- Slight decline in high-price areas in the south: Fujian 11.70 yuan / kg (-0.04) remains in first place, Guangdong 11.40(unchanged), Zhejiang 10.60(-0.20), Jiangsu 10.50(-0.22).
- A marked rebound in the southwest:Sichuan 10.23(+0.43) surging in a single day, Hubei 10.32(+0.18), Jiangxi 10.32(+0.01), Jilin 9.86(+0.13), the oversold Southwest production region rebounded first.
- Weak in the north and northwest:Shaanxi 9.70(-0.40) plunged、Shanxi 9.85(-0.20), Gansu 9.80(-0.20), Anhui 10.30(-0.10), Henan 10.13(-0.07), Inner Mongolia 9.80(-0.07）；Xinjiang 9.20 remained the lowest nationwide.
- Most of the other provinces are in the range of 10.00—10.20 yuan / Narrow fluctuations in the kilogram range.
Trend Summary
Overall, today's spot market showed"10.20 Flat at the frontline, with mixed gains and losses"": According to the daily report, it was unchanged for two consecutive days, and today it edged down in real time to 10.17 yuan / kilogram (-0.32%). Structurally, prices in southwestern Sichuan rose sharply 0.43 yuan / Kilogram leads, while Shaanxi in the northwest sees a sharp drop 0.40 yuan / Kilograms lead the decline, with widening regional divergence but no change in the national average price——Typical bottom-level tug-of-war. Sentiment turned bearish from yesterday 100% Repair to at most an empty position each 50%, indicating that after bottoming out during the National Day holiday, retail investors' panic has eased somewhat. The Sogou Pig Network Toutiao article “The Number of Sows Is Decreasing, Yet Pork Supply Is Increasing” is worth noting: capacity reduction is a slow-moving process, and short-term supply pressure remains.
II. Sow Pig Network monitors the latest hog supply and demand situation
(I) Supply-side situation
Supply side"Short-term pressure remains, while destocking continues in the medium to long term". Recent observations by Sow Pig Network continue to point out"Market supply pressure remains relatively high in the coming stages, and supply and demand continue to weigh on rising hog prices."—Although slaughter volumes declined after the two holidays, the group 10 The monthly slaughter plan has not yet contracted significantly, and short-term supply pressure remains. In the medium to long term, at the end of the second quarter, the breeding sow inventory 3780 The number of breeding sows is approaching the red line for normal inventory regulation, and the direction of capacity reduction is clear. Yesterday, the price of hybrid sows plunged 590 yuan / Head, rebound today 160 yuan / At the beginning of the period, daily fluctuations were sharp, reflecting unstable sentiment in the cull sow market. However, the broader trend of involuntary culling due to farm losses remained unchanged.
(II) Demand-side conditions
Demand side"After the two holidays, entering the off-season lull"The stockpiling for the two festivals has been fulfilled. After the holidays, pork consumption enters its traditional off-season, but Souzhu.com also points out"Pork prices are approaching 10 The yuan threshold, lacking a basis for a sharp decline"——In stock 10 yuan / There is cost support near the yuan per kilogram level. Today, prices in southwestern Sichuan rose sharply 0.43 yuan / kilograms, indicating that some sellers in the lower-priced areas are already reluctant to sell. Sentiment has shifted from bearish 100% The repair has reached a maximum-short equilibrium; the panic-selling phase is over.
(III) Summary of Supply and Demand Balance
Today's supply and demand landscape"Bottom-level tug-of-war, bulls and bears in balance": Spot is at 10.20 yuan / The kilogram price is moving sideways at the front line, with short-term supply pressure and 10 Cost support has led to a standoff; sentiment has recovered from extreme pessimism to a balanced level. In the medium term, capacity reduction is clearly underway but progressing slowly, and spot prices in the fourth quarter are likely to be at 10—11 yuan / The market is bottoming within a range, and a sustained upward trend will have to wait for a material contraction in supply. After rebounding today, futures prices rose before retreating, as funds engaged in intense trading at elevated levels.
III. Daily hog futures contract overview and commentary on the most actively traded contract
(I) Key details of each contract on the day (trading date:2026 Year 10 Month 9 Day; Exchange: Dalian Commodity Exchange)
Data sources: Official closing data from the Dalian Commodity Exchange and Sina Finance (2026 Year 10 Month 9 Day 15:00 Public data after the close). Hog futures rebounded across the board today——The weighted live pig index rose 1.06% to 11300 CNY / ton, trading throughout the day 28.4 Ten thousand lots, transaction amount 501.35 one hundred million yuan. Increase in each contract 0.04%—1.53% Unequal: original main force LH2611 Surge1.53%、New main force LH2701 Increase 0.99%、LH2703 Increase 0.77%,LH2705 increase 0.29%、LH2707 Slight increase 0.04%. ButIt is highly concerning that each contract surged early in the session before plunging sharply toward the close.——LH2701 Intraday high 11385 yuan / tonnes, closing at 11210, falling back from a high point 175 point;LH2611 Intraday high 10775, received 10595, declined 180 points; the highest weighted index 11458, received at 11300, a decline 158 Point.
|
Contract |
Closing price (yuan/ton) |
Rise and fall |
Price change |
Open now |
Highest |
Minimum |
Trading volume (lots) |
Open interest (lots) |
|
LH2611(former main force/(approaching closing) |
10595 |
+160 |
+1.53% |
10510 |
10775 |
10505 |
14.58 Ten thousand |
11.86 ten thousand |
|
LH2701(New main force) |
11210 |
+110 |
+0.99% |
11090 |
11385 |
11090 |
8.63 ten thousand |
14.67 ten thousand |
|
LH2703 |
11070 |
+85 |
+0.77% |
11000 |
11225 |
10975 |
2.97 ten thousand |
12.15 ten thousand |
|
LH2705 |
12135 |
+35 |
+0.29% |
12080 |
12275 |
12075 |
1.05 Ten thousand |
4.72 Ten thousand |
|
LH2707 |
12995 |
+5 |
+0.04% |
12960 |
13125 |
12950 |
6939 |
3.28 Ten thousand |
|
Weighted live hogs |
11300 |
+119 |
+1.06% |
— |
11458 |
11300 |
28.40 Ten thousand |
— |
(II) Core Focus——Rising to a high and then retreating: Are bulls taking profits or bears attacking? (Today’s key focus)
The most important question in today’s market is not the rebound itself, butThe nature of the funds behind the sharp late-session plunge after a surgeThis determines whether the rebound is a true reversal or a technical bounce.
#### One, reason for the rise: a continuation of yesterday’s bullish probing+Oversold rebound
Drivers of today’s early-session surge:
1. Yesterday, the bulls’ late-session probe was validated.: Yesterday (10/8) Closing session LH2701 From 10970 Pull back 11105, the market opened sharply higher this morning and continued to climb, with the bulls pressing their attack;
2. Oversold technical rebound:9 For more than a month LH2701 From 11825 fell to 10970, with a cumulative decline of over 850 points, severely oversold on the technical side;
3. Emotional healing: Spot sentiment is bearish 100% Quick fix to at most short positions 50%;
4. The capacity digestion rationale is gaining traction: Yesterday, the price of binary sows plummeted 590 yuan/ Market expectations for an acceleration in capacity reductions are rising.
Key evidence:LH2701 Holdings from yesterday 14.11 Increased to ten thousand hands 14.67 Ten thousand hands (+0.56 ten thousand lots)——A rise accompanied by increasing positions indicates that bulls are actively entering with real money, rather than a technical rebound driven by short covering. Yesterday’s assessment"Multi-pronged attempts to test the market and buy at the bottom"Confirmed today.
#### II. Surge and Pullback: A Breakdown of Funds Behind the Late-Session Plunge
All contracts pulled back from their highs today. 150—180 points, but open interest changes vary significantly across different contracts:
|
Contract |
Changes in holdings |
Trend |
Determination of the nature of the funds |
|
LH2701(New mainstay) |
**+0.56 ten thousand contracts (increase in positions)** |
11385→11210 |
**Short sellers attack on rallies**(high-position addition with empty space) |
|
LH2611(original main force) |
**-0.48 Ten thousand lots (reduction in positions)** |
10775→10595 |
**Take profits on multiple positions**(Close the position at a high level) |
#### III. Conclusion: A Dual Force——New dominant short sellers add to their short positions, while former dominant long holders take profits
Overall, the sharp drop in the market at the close today isTwo forces combine:
1. New mainstay LH2701: Short sellers attack on rallies.LH2701 Holdings increased rather than decreased (+0.56 ten thousand lots), but the price from 11385 fell back to 11210——This is typical ofShort sellers are in 11300—11400 Actively add short positions at highs for a targeted strikeIf it were merely long holders taking profits, open interest should decline; the increase in open interest instead indicates that shorts are re-establishing positions at higher levels,11385 Nearby is a strong resistance line for the bears.
2. Original main force LH2611: Multiple positions take profits and exit.LH2611 Holdings decrease 0.48 ten thousand lots, with the price starting from 10775 Fell back to 10595—As the delivery month approaches, bulls who bought the dip at lower levels yesterday took profits at higher levels today; this selling pressure was due to active position reduction.
#### Four. Outlook and monitoring points
This structure means:The rebound is real (the bulls did indeed step in), but so is the defense set up by the bears at higher levels.. Short-term bullish and bearish positions are 11200—11300 Forming a new balance of power:
- Upward pressure 11385(Today's high, short sellers' line of defense);
- Support below 11090(Today's low, yesterday's long position cost area).
Monitor the following three signals:
- If LH2701 Increase positions and break through 11385 → The bears’ defense line has been breached, and the rebound continues;
- If LH2701 Reduce positions; pull back and break below 11090 → Profit-taking by bulls cuts the rebound short, and the market returns to grinding near the bottom;
- If it continues 11100—11300 Range-bound trading with increased positions→ During the long-short turnover, wait for a directional move.
(three) new main contract (LH2701) Detailed explanation and commentary
Today's new main contract LH2701 Closing price 11210 yuan / tons, compared with yesterday's settlement price 11100 yuan / tons increased 110 yuan / ton (+0.99%), intraday high 11385 yuan / tons, minimum 11090 yuan / tons, with an all-day amplitude of approximately 2.66%, trading volume 8.63 Ten thousand lots, open interest14.67 Ten thousand lots, transaction amount 155.32 Hundred million yuan.
#### Core contract performance
LH2701 Opened today 11090 yuan / tons, rising steadily throughout the morning session to a high of 11385 yuan/ tons, the market fell back to 11210 yuan / tons at close. Open interest in this contract 14.67 Ten thousand lots, trading amount 155.32 Hundred million yuan, firmly established as a new mainstay. The current price relative to spot (10.20 Yuan / kilograms = 10200 Yuan / tonnes) premium of approximately 1010 yuan / tons, corresponding to 2027 Year 1 Month (pre-Spring Festival) contract.
#### Analysis of bullish and bearish forces and open interest
Today LH2701 Increase in holdings 0.56 Ten thousand hands to 14.67 ten thousand contracts, the largest increase in open interest among all contracts——Rises on increased positions, but retreats after an early surge, indicating that the bulls are at a low level (11090—11200) while shorts enter at high levels (11300—11385) Both the bulls and bears are actively adding positions at this point, and the disagreement is enormous.11385 yuan/ The ton has become a short-term dividing line between bullish and bearish positions.
#### Outlook and Trading Cautions
In the short term,LH2701 at 11090—11385 The battle over the range will determine the direction. Today’s rebound confirmed that bullish traders entered the market, but the late-session plunge shows that the bears’ defenses remain firm. In terms of trading strategy,Not suitable in 11300 Go long above(The short-side defense line is here), nor is it advisable to 11100 Wait below to sell short (the long position cost zone is here); wait until the direction of the range breakout is clear before following up.
(Four) Supplementary analysis of the remaining contracts
#### 1. Original main contract (LH2611)
Today LH2611 Contract closing price 10595 yuan / tons, a sharp increase 1.53%(leading the market), with an intraday high of 10775 yuan / tons, closing at 10595, retreating from the peak 180 points. Open interest decreased 0.48 Ten thousand hands to 11.86 ten thousand hands——As the delivery month approaches, the longs who bought the dip yesterday took profits at higher levels today. The contract was at a premium to spot of approximately 395 Yuan / Tonnes; subsequent fluctuations will gradually narrow.
#### 2. Near-month and far-month contracts (LH2703、LH2705、LH2707)
Today LH2703 Contract closing price 11070 yuan / tonnes, increase 0.77%, holdings 12.15 Ten thousand hands (+0.22 ten thousand);LH2705 Contract closing price 12135 yuan / tons, up 0.29%;LH2707 Contract closing price 12995 yuan / Tons, slight increase 0.04%The near-month contract rose more than the deferred-month contract, indicating that today's rebound was driven mainly by a recovery in the near-month contract after being oversold, while the deferred-month contract showed little follow-through.——The market remains divided on the outlook after the fourth quarter.
IV. Overall Market Summary and Risk Alerts for Today
(I) Overall Market Summary
Today's hog market is showing an overall"Spot prices moved sideways, futures rebounded, and trading at high levels continued."Pattern: The national average price of lean pigs sold at slaughter, as monitored by Souzhu.com’s spot market 10.20 yuan/ kilograms, unchanged for two consecutive days, with sentiment shifting from bearish100% Repair up to an empty space 50%; weighted live hog futures rose 1.06%, the entire line rebounded but retreated after rising sharply,LH2701 From 11385 Fell back to 11210.
The core signal in today's market isBullish and bearish disagreement intensifies: The bulls’ late-session test yesterday was confirmed today (LH2701 Increase position 0.56 ten thousand lots rise), but the bears were at 11300—11400 Actively adding short positions at high levels to target the market; the original major long holders are taking profits as the delivery month approaches.The rebound is real, but the bears’ defenses are also solid.。Short-term LH2701 At 11090—11385 Range-bound trading; confirmation of the directional move must wait for next week’s trading volume and open interest data.
(II) Risk Warning
1. Risk of a failed rebound：rose sharply today before retreating+Add to short positions at elevated levels; if it opens lower next Monday and falls below 11090, then the rebound may be only a technical bounce, returning to bottoming out near the lows.
2. Short sellers’ defenses suppress risk:11385 It is an area where a high volume of trades occurred earlier.+Today’s short-selling position is further increased. If the price fails to break through after multiple attempts, bullish confidence will be shaken.
3. Spot supply pressure risk: Sozhu.com continues to point out"Supply pressures remain relatively high at this stage.",10 If the Group’s monthly hog shipments do not contract significantly, the spot market rebound will be limited.
4. Risk of production capacity being absorbed: Binary sow prices fluctuated sharply in a single day (yesterday -590, today +160), the sell-through pace is unstable, so single-day data should not be overinterpreted.
5. Policy and epidemic-related variable risks: Capacity regulation policies from the two ministries and the development of autumn and winter diseases may both act as market catalysts.
6. Operational risk：Currently at the bottom-building stage+A sensitive phase in the battle between bulls and bears,LH2701 At 11090—11385 Before the range is broken, avoid chasing rallies or selling into declines; breakout 11385 Follow up on multiple orders and fall below 11090 Set a stop-loss and wait. Use the actual transaction prices paid by small-scale farmers on Souzhu.com as the anchor, and do not get swept up in market sentiment.
Data source: Sohu Pig Network live pig big data dashboard (national average price for lean hogs sold, real-time ranking of average prices by province, pig price sentiment, piglets/Sow/Feed prices,2026-10-09); Souzhu.com live pig monitoring and early warning (10month9Daily review,2026-10-09); Dalian Commodity Exchange live hog futures closing data (Sina Finance,2026-10-09 15:00).