Recently, changes in the pace of hog marketings by large-scale producers have kept the live hog market in a narrow-range tug-of-war. Prices have, however, shown a slightly firmer trend, as large-scale producers in many parts of both northern and southern China reduced marketings at the start of the month. Demand-side feedback has been mediocre: during the holiday period, pork purchasing and sales were subdued, providing limited marginal support for consumption. As for the outlook for hog prices, the market generally expects the live hog market to consolidate at the bottom and see a weak rebound in 10 month. However, support for an increase is relatively limited. In particular, supply-side pressure remains, while demand also faces the risk of a peak season that fails to meet expectations. There is little chance of a substantial short-term rise in hog prices.
Looking at production capacity, sow inventory data show that, since sow inventories gradually declined after the second half of last year, domestic supply pressure for live hogs should theoretically ease gradually as well. However, according to the latest information, based on domestic sow inventories of 3961 ten thousand head 10 months ago (at the end of 2025 year 12 month), an increase of 4 ten thousand head month on month, and given that PSY figures among major producers are high and the sow inventory base is large, the supply capacity for commercial hogs in 2026 year 10 month should theoretically be sufficient.
Also, last month, seasonal demand failed to peak, while the supply of low-priced sows for culling increased. During the month, shipments of standard-weight pigs from group pig companies and independent farms were completed as planned or fell short of expectations. In some production areas, shipments of standard-weight pigs may be delayed until this month, putting pressure on actual supply!
On the demand side, it is now the fourth quarter, and seasonal demand is entering its peak season. Falling temperatures are driving a recovery in domestic market demand, and residents’ willingness to put on weight for autumn is gradually recovering! However, as weak performance during peak seasons has become commonplace, and given factors such as changes in residents’ dietary patterns, demographic shifts, and industrial upgrading, the recovery in seasonal demand may fall short of expectations. In addition, ample pork supply, rising average shipment weights for live pigs, and high frozen pork inventories at slaughterhouses may suppress sales of fresh pork, meaning consumption during the peak season may fall short of expectations!
However, there are also uncertainties in the market. After all, fewer buyers have entered the secondary fattening market so far this year. Since entering the fourth quarter, some secondary fattening buyers have still been entering the market when prices are low, and market confidence in the prospects for cured pork remains, providing a floor for pig prices!
According to the latest information, following price adjustments by slaughterhouses, the quoted price for standard-weight pigs on 10/8 is expected to be 10.19 yuan/kg. Going forward, attention will focus on changes in the pace of market buying and selling!
Looking at production capacity, sow inventory data show that, since sow inventories gradually declined after the second half of last year, domestic supply pressure for live hogs should theoretically ease gradually as well. However, according to the latest information, based on domestic sow inventories of 3961 ten thousand head 10 months ago (at the end of 2025 year 12 month), an increase of 4 ten thousand head month on month, and given that PSY figures among major producers are high and the sow inventory base is large, the supply capacity for commercial hogs in 2026 year 10 month should theoretically be sufficient.
Also, last month, seasonal demand failed to peak, while the supply of low-priced sows for culling increased. During the month, shipments of standard-weight pigs from group pig companies and independent farms were completed as planned or fell short of expectations. In some production areas, shipments of standard-weight pigs may be delayed until this month, putting pressure on actual supply!
On the demand side, it is now the fourth quarter, and seasonal demand is entering its peak season. Falling temperatures are driving a recovery in domestic market demand, and residents’ willingness to put on weight for autumn is gradually recovering! However, as weak performance during peak seasons has become commonplace, and given factors such as changes in residents’ dietary patterns, demographic shifts, and industrial upgrading, the recovery in seasonal demand may fall short of expectations. In addition, ample pork supply, rising average shipment weights for live pigs, and high frozen pork inventories at slaughterhouses may suppress sales of fresh pork, meaning consumption during the peak season may fall short of expectations!
However, there are also uncertainties in the market. After all, fewer buyers have entered the secondary fattening market so far this year. Since entering the fourth quarter, some secondary fattening buyers have still been entering the market when prices are low, and market confidence in the prospects for cured pork remains, providing a floor for pig prices!
According to the latest information, following price adjustments by slaughterhouses, the quoted price for standard-weight pigs on 10/8 is expected to be 10.19 yuan/kg. Going forward, attention will focus on changes in the pace of market buying and selling!