At the start of 10, the National Day holiday ended, and the domestic live hog market saw slight consolidation during the holiday. Although hog prices rebounded slightly from the end of the previous month, market support during the holiday was limited, leaving little room for a rebound. As the National Day mini-break came to an end and the holiday effect faded, market trading demand gradually recovered. Marginal support from demand may weaken, and hog prices face pressure to edge down after the holiday. However, given that the average price for standard hogs is close to the bottom of 10 yuan/kg, a sharp decline in hog prices is not expected. The market may continue to seek a bottom, and the live hog market remains in the “bottom-building” phase!
According to cited data monitoring and analysis, on 10 8, the nationalthree-way crossbreedlive hog average ex-farm price was 10.19 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan from the previous day. Hog prices were holding steady with a weak bias, with both bullish and bearish sentiment in the market. Current quoted prices for standard hogs are down around 13.4% year on year!
Based on feedback from local markets, across the 28 northern and southern regions monitored as key areas in China, live hog prices showed a pattern of “8 up, 8 down, and 14 unchanged.” Among the regions posting increases, quoted prices in Anhui, Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Sichuan and Chongqing, and Yunnan and Guizhou rose by 0.05~0.1 yuan/kg. Among the regions posting declines, quoted prices in Shandong, Hubei, Henan, Shanxi, Heilongjiang, Shaanxi and Gansu, and Xinjiang fell by 0.05~0.15 yuan. The Southwest market was relatively firm, the Northwest market saw a downward adjustment, and most regions in the north and south traded sideways. Nationwide live hog prices were 9~11.8 yuan/kg, with prices in most areas moving sideways at around 9.8~10.7 yuan/liter!
At present, hog prices are mostly holding steady with a weak bias. Market sentiment is somewhat divided, with both bullish and bearish views. The market may lack direction in the short term, and hog prices may fluctuate up and down in response to changes in the sales pace of large-scale hog enterprises!
Positive factors: On the one hand, after the holiday, all sectors are resuming operations, students are returning to school, and factories are reopening. Demand for dining in across the country is gradually improving, and the market may see some short-term restocking demand. The operating rate of slaughterhouses may rebound slightly!
On the other hand, as the fourth quarter begins and the traditional peak consumption season approaches, the southern regions’ curing season is drawing nearer. Confidence among producers in the market outlook may gradually recover, which could curb the market’s willingness to sell hogs at low prices. Hog farms in the broader market are willing to hold back sales to support prices!
In addition, the current average price for standard hogs is relatively low, while the market is bullish on the outlook for heavier hogs. In many areas in both the north and south, operators are still entering the market for secondary fattening when prices dip, providing market support!
Negative factors: On the one hand, although changes in the breeding sow inventory indicate that pressure from domestic hog production capacity will gradually ease, demand recovered only slowly at the margin in the earlier period, leaving excess production capacity among producers. Pressure on the supply side remains undiminished! In particular, this month, large-scale hog producers may have a relatively high number of planned sales, and some production areas may face pressure from delayed sales, keeping supply ample!
On the other hand, demand is recovering slowly at the margin. The increase in demand from catering and dine-in services may fall short of expectations. Moreover, domestic frozen pork inventories are high, and the recovery in downstream market demand may also fall short of expectations!
Based on this analysis, amid the tug-of-war between supply and demand, hog prices are likely to consolidate in the short term. Changes in the sales pace of large-scale hog producers may affect short-term price movements, and the prevailing view is that in the first half of 10 month, the market may face some downward pressure! Looking ahead, as sales pressure on large-scale hog producers eases and the weather turns cooler, expectations for market demand may improve, and hog prices may resume rising! Within the month, the live hog market may trend stronger amid fluctuations; however, ample supply means there is no clear catalyst for a significant rally!
According to cited data monitoring and analysis, on 10 8, the nationalthree-way crossbreedlive hog average ex-farm price was 10.19 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan from the previous day. Hog prices were holding steady with a weak bias, with both bullish and bearish sentiment in the market. Current quoted prices for standard hogs are down around 13.4% year on year!
Based on feedback from local markets, across the 28 northern and southern regions monitored as key areas in China, live hog prices showed a pattern of “8 up, 8 down, and 14 unchanged.” Among the regions posting increases, quoted prices in Anhui, Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Sichuan and Chongqing, and Yunnan and Guizhou rose by 0.05~0.1 yuan/kg. Among the regions posting declines, quoted prices in Shandong, Hubei, Henan, Shanxi, Heilongjiang, Shaanxi and Gansu, and Xinjiang fell by 0.05~0.15 yuan. The Southwest market was relatively firm, the Northwest market saw a downward adjustment, and most regions in the north and south traded sideways. Nationwide live hog prices were 9~11.8 yuan/kg, with prices in most areas moving sideways at around 9.8~10.7 yuan/liter!
At present, hog prices are mostly holding steady with a weak bias. Market sentiment is somewhat divided, with both bullish and bearish views. The market may lack direction in the short term, and hog prices may fluctuate up and down in response to changes in the sales pace of large-scale hog enterprises!
Positive factors: On the one hand, after the holiday, all sectors are resuming operations, students are returning to school, and factories are reopening. Demand for dining in across the country is gradually improving, and the market may see some short-term restocking demand. The operating rate of slaughterhouses may rebound slightly!
On the other hand, as the fourth quarter begins and the traditional peak consumption season approaches, the southern regions’ curing season is drawing nearer. Confidence among producers in the market outlook may gradually recover, which could curb the market’s willingness to sell hogs at low prices. Hog farms in the broader market are willing to hold back sales to support prices!
In addition, the current average price for standard hogs is relatively low, while the market is bullish on the outlook for heavier hogs. In many areas in both the north and south, operators are still entering the market for secondary fattening when prices dip, providing market support!
Negative factors: On the one hand, although changes in the breeding sow inventory indicate that pressure from domestic hog production capacity will gradually ease, demand recovered only slowly at the margin in the earlier period, leaving excess production capacity among producers. Pressure on the supply side remains undiminished! In particular, this month, large-scale hog producers may have a relatively high number of planned sales, and some production areas may face pressure from delayed sales, keeping supply ample!
On the other hand, demand is recovering slowly at the margin. The increase in demand from catering and dine-in services may fall short of expectations. Moreover, domestic frozen pork inventories are high, and the recovery in downstream market demand may also fall short of expectations!
Based on this analysis, amid the tug-of-war between supply and demand, hog prices are likely to consolidate in the short term. Changes in the sales pace of large-scale hog producers may affect short-term price movements, and the prevailing view is that in the first half of 10 month, the market may face some downward pressure! Looking ahead, as sales pressure on large-scale hog producers eases and the weather turns cooler, expectations for market demand may improve, and hog prices may resume rising! Within the month, the live hog market may trend stronger amid fluctuations; however, ample supply means there is no clear catalyst for a significant rally!