During the National Day holiday, the live hog market maintained a narrow trading range. At the beginning of the month, prices briefly rose as major hog producers reduced sales, people’s mobility increased, and domestic and urban pork demand improved. However, as hogs previously held back for sale gradually entered the market and major hog producers resumed their sales pace, the live hog market cooled slightly. Although, over the two preceding days, the imminent return of students to school created some restocking demand in downstream markets, supporting another strengthening in hog prices, the recovery in demand at the margin was slow. Feedback on downstream market stockpiling ahead of students’ return to school was mediocre, and slaughterhouse operating rates were difficult to raise effectively. The market weakened again, and prices adjusted downward: a 180° major shift!
According to data monitoring and analysis, as of 10月8日, nationwidethree-way crossbreedlean-type standard hogs had an average ex-farm price of 10.19 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan from the previous day. Hog prices came under pressure and weakened. Markets in the north and south mainly saw mixed gains and losses, but declines became somewhat more widespread. Market sentiment was somewhat cautious, with both bullish and bearish views present in the near term!
Feedback from different regions indicates that among the 28 key regions monitored domestically, the market was generally stable with only minor movements. The national average live hog price was close to that in Hunan, at 10.2 yuan/kg. Hog quotations ranged from 9~11.8 yuan/kg, while quotations in most regions were around 10~10.7 yuan/kg. The Southwest was relatively strong; markets in East, Central, and South China were generally stable with only minor movements; hog quotations in the northern regions were mainly consolidating with a slight weakening bias; and markets in most of the Northwest were weak.
At present, hog prices are mainly stable to lower. In the near term, bullish and bearish factors coexist in the market, and supply and demand fundamentals have not yet turned around. A seasonal rise in hog prices will still take time!
On the supply side, in 10 month, domestic commercial hog supplies are ample! On the one hand, last month, major leading hog producers planned a relatively large number of marketings, but actual completions may have fallen short of expectations. In particular, demand performed poorly, more low-priced sows were culled from the market, and marketings increased for hogs previously held back as well as hogs from secondary fattening. Some large-scale hog producers may have shifted part of their production capacity to market in 10 month, leaving ample supply capacity this month. In addition, sow inventories stopped falling and rebounded 10 months ago, further intensifying supply-side pressure this month. On the other hand, as temperatures fall, fattening hogs are gaining weight more quickly, increasing the supply of hogs at suitable weights. Moreover, the share of medium- and large-sized hogs in inventories has risen, and the average weight of marketed hogs has increased, leaving pork supplies ample! Therefore, this month, the supply of hogs and pork is loose, putting pressure on hog prices!
On the demand side, the National Day holiday has come to an end. Although increased travel during the holiday improved pork demand, with domestic sales and urban demand recovering! However, as the National Day holiday comes to an end, marginal support from demand may weaken. Although canteens resume purchasing after the holiday and residents' demand to build up their nutrition for autumn increases, overall demand may be unlikely to see a substantial recovery!
Therefore, amid the tug-of-war between supply and demand, the current hog market fundamentals are bearish! However, after entering the fourth quarter, the market is optimistic about prospects for southern China's winter meat-curing season at the end of the quarter. This may curb producers' willingness to sell, while consumer demand is gradually recovering at the margin. Market bargain-hunting sentiment remains, and some secondary fattening operations are still entering the market, providing a floor for hog prices!
Based on this analysis, amid the tug-of-war between supply and demand, changes in the marketing pace of large-scale hog producers may briefly keep the market moving sideways. Later, as temperatures fall and marginal support from demand improves further, hog prices may still have an opportunity to strengthen. Particular attention should be paid to changes in market marketing pace and sentiment around secondary fattening!
According to data monitoring and analysis, as of 10月8日, nationwidethree-way crossbreedlean-type standard hogs had an average ex-farm price of 10.19 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan from the previous day. Hog prices came under pressure and weakened. Markets in the north and south mainly saw mixed gains and losses, but declines became somewhat more widespread. Market sentiment was somewhat cautious, with both bullish and bearish views present in the near term!
Feedback from different regions indicates that among the 28 key regions monitored domestically, the market was generally stable with only minor movements. The national average live hog price was close to that in Hunan, at 10.2 yuan/kg. Hog quotations ranged from 9~11.8 yuan/kg, while quotations in most regions were around 10~10.7 yuan/kg. The Southwest was relatively strong; markets in East, Central, and South China were generally stable with only minor movements; hog quotations in the northern regions were mainly consolidating with a slight weakening bias; and markets in most of the Northwest were weak.
At present, hog prices are mainly stable to lower. In the near term, bullish and bearish factors coexist in the market, and supply and demand fundamentals have not yet turned around. A seasonal rise in hog prices will still take time!
On the supply side, in 10 month, domestic commercial hog supplies are ample! On the one hand, last month, major leading hog producers planned a relatively large number of marketings, but actual completions may have fallen short of expectations. In particular, demand performed poorly, more low-priced sows were culled from the market, and marketings increased for hogs previously held back as well as hogs from secondary fattening. Some large-scale hog producers may have shifted part of their production capacity to market in 10 month, leaving ample supply capacity this month. In addition, sow inventories stopped falling and rebounded 10 months ago, further intensifying supply-side pressure this month. On the other hand, as temperatures fall, fattening hogs are gaining weight more quickly, increasing the supply of hogs at suitable weights. Moreover, the share of medium- and large-sized hogs in inventories has risen, and the average weight of marketed hogs has increased, leaving pork supplies ample! Therefore, this month, the supply of hogs and pork is loose, putting pressure on hog prices!
On the demand side, the National Day holiday has come to an end. Although increased travel during the holiday improved pork demand, with domestic sales and urban demand recovering! However, as the National Day holiday comes to an end, marginal support from demand may weaken. Although canteens resume purchasing after the holiday and residents' demand to build up their nutrition for autumn increases, overall demand may be unlikely to see a substantial recovery!
Therefore, amid the tug-of-war between supply and demand, the current hog market fundamentals are bearish! However, after entering the fourth quarter, the market is optimistic about prospects for southern China's winter meat-curing season at the end of the quarter. This may curb producers' willingness to sell, while consumer demand is gradually recovering at the margin. Market bargain-hunting sentiment remains, and some secondary fattening operations are still entering the market, providing a floor for hog prices!
Based on this analysis, amid the tug-of-war between supply and demand, changes in the marketing pace of large-scale hog producers may briefly keep the market moving sideways. Later, as temperatures fall and marginal support from demand improves further, hog prices may still have an opportunity to strengthen. Particular attention should be paid to changes in market marketing pace and sentiment around secondary fattening!