Time flies. During the traditional “Golden September and Silver October” months, including the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the hog market remained sluggish! Although, at the beginning of 9, standard pig quotations briefly rose to 11.09 yuan/kg, and farmers hoped that pig prices would climb into the “6-yuan era” before the Mid-Autumn Festival. Unfortunately, hopes did not become reality: in the traditional “Golden September” month, pig prices kept falling. In particular, after the Mid-Autumn Festival, slaughterhouses reduced their stockpiling, operating rates gradually declined, and large-scale producers increased shipments at month-end. On the eve of National Day, standard pig prices bottomed out at 9.96 yuan/kg.
Although what goes around comes around, at the beginning of 10, boosted by the festive atmosphere, leading pig producers in northern and southern regions reduced shipments, briefly shifting pig prices upward. Unfortunately, during the National Day short holiday, pig prices rebounded to 10.25 yuan/kg but could make no further progress, and the market once again fell into the mire of “bottoming out.” Standard pig quotations have now fallen back to 10.19 yuan/kg. Market sentiment is somewhat divided, and after the holiday, pig prices may continue to move in a lukewarm pattern. The hog market still needs time to create room for improvement, and the prospects for pig price rises in the fourth quarter may fall short of expectations!
From the supply side, following the earlier reduction in the breeding sow herd, commercial hog supply has entered a stage in which the benefits of capacity reduction are being realized! However, last month, large-scale pig farming companies shipped “more, not less,” and supply pressure remained considerable! Moreover, before the Mid-Autumn Festival, marginal demand support was insufficient. Trading in white pork was sluggish in downstream markets, frozen pork inventories at major slaughterhouses were high, and hog shipments were slow. Demand absorption was clearly insufficient, inevitably leaving a backlog of production capacity in hog supply. In 10 month, pressure to ship market-ready commercial hogs will persist. In particular, the breeding sow herd 10 months earlier increased rather than decreased, heightening concerns about an oversupply of commercial hogs!
On the demand side, although seasonal demand enters its peak season during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, unfortunately, in recent years, as the population structure has shifted, the industry has upgraded, and dietary habits have changed, pork’s share of consumption has gradually declined. During the traditional Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the marginal recovery in consumption has been weak! In particular, before the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, the operating rate of sampled slaughterhouses rose to 34.03%, with only a limited recovery during the month and insufficient demand absorption! After the National Day holiday begins, the consumer market may continue its habitual decline; domestic sales and urban essential demand may weaken, demand for white pork trading may cool, and slaughterhouse operating rates may edge down, leaving demand support insufficient!
Based on this analysis, amid the tug-of-war between supply and demand, the hog market is likely to move sideways with fluctuations, with both bullish and bearish sentiment present! According to feedback from the grassroots market, following slaughterhouse price adjustments, it is expected that on 10 9,Three-way crossbred hogsThe average price of live hogs at farm exit is 10.13 yuan/kg. Going forward, watch for changes in the pace of market buying and selling!
Although what goes around comes around, at the beginning of 10, boosted by the festive atmosphere, leading pig producers in northern and southern regions reduced shipments, briefly shifting pig prices upward. Unfortunately, during the National Day short holiday, pig prices rebounded to 10.25 yuan/kg but could make no further progress, and the market once again fell into the mire of “bottoming out.” Standard pig quotations have now fallen back to 10.19 yuan/kg. Market sentiment is somewhat divided, and after the holiday, pig prices may continue to move in a lukewarm pattern. The hog market still needs time to create room for improvement, and the prospects for pig price rises in the fourth quarter may fall short of expectations!
From the supply side, following the earlier reduction in the breeding sow herd, commercial hog supply has entered a stage in which the benefits of capacity reduction are being realized! However, last month, large-scale pig farming companies shipped “more, not less,” and supply pressure remained considerable! Moreover, before the Mid-Autumn Festival, marginal demand support was insufficient. Trading in white pork was sluggish in downstream markets, frozen pork inventories at major slaughterhouses were high, and hog shipments were slow. Demand absorption was clearly insufficient, inevitably leaving a backlog of production capacity in hog supply. In 10 month, pressure to ship market-ready commercial hogs will persist. In particular, the breeding sow herd 10 months earlier increased rather than decreased, heightening concerns about an oversupply of commercial hogs!
On the demand side, although seasonal demand enters its peak season during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, unfortunately, in recent years, as the population structure has shifted, the industry has upgraded, and dietary habits have changed, pork’s share of consumption has gradually declined. During the traditional Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the marginal recovery in consumption has been weak! In particular, before the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, the operating rate of sampled slaughterhouses rose to 34.03%, with only a limited recovery during the month and insufficient demand absorption! After the National Day holiday begins, the consumer market may continue its habitual decline; domestic sales and urban essential demand may weaken, demand for white pork trading may cool, and slaughterhouse operating rates may edge down, leaving demand support insufficient!
Based on this analysis, amid the tug-of-war between supply and demand, the hog market is likely to move sideways with fluctuations, with both bullish and bearish sentiment present! According to feedback from the grassroots market, following slaughterhouse price adjustments, it is expected that on 10 9,Three-way crossbred hogsThe average price of live hogs at farm exit is 10.13 yuan/kg. Going forward, watch for changes in the pace of market buying and selling!