With 10 already nearly halfway over, the fundamentals of supply and demand in China’s hog market have been difficult to improve since the National Day holiday, and the market has continued to follow a pattern of “prices falling easily and rising with difficulty.” In particular, pressure on the supply side remains high, while demand lacks effective support. Production and sales remain in surplus, and hog prices have fallen sharply through key levels! Although there is support at the market bottom, the continued “slow decline” is further increasing pressure on producers. So, what is the outlook for hog prices? Is a new “wave of price cuts” coming? An analysis follows:
According to data from industry organizations, on 13 10, the average price nationwide for lean-type standard hogs at farmgate was 9.99 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan from yesterday. Hog prices fell sharply through key levels, with the average price dropping below 10 yuan/kg. Prices fell sharply across northern and southern China, and the market was once again awash in “red” as prices declined! Compared with the monthly high of 10.25 yuan/kg at the start of the month, prices were down 0.26 yuan and are about to fall back to last month-end levels!
Based on regional feedback, among the 7 key hog-producing regions in the north and south monitored nationwide, data are available for nearly 28 regions. The average hog farmgate price was close to 10.05 yuan/kg in places such as Hebei and Hunan. Market quotations for hogs across northern and southern China ranged from 9.1 to 11.45 yuan/kg, with Xinjiang the lowest and Fujian the highest. Prices in most northern and southern regions fell back to 9.7–10.4 yuan/kg. After hog prices fell below 10 yuan/kg in Northeast, Northwest, and Southwest China, quotations in North China are also set to fall below 10 yuan/kg across the board. In higher-priced regions, quotations in East China have fallen, with mainstream prices also dropping to around 10.15–10.4 yuan/kg.
Hog prices are currently under downward pressure, and the average price has once again fallen sharply through key levels. This renewed downward movement, along with the widening price cuts, is mainly due to the continued imbalance between market production and sales!
On the supply side, according to earlier monitoring by industry organizations, in 10, the actual monthly shipment plan for 173 large-scale hog companies in the domestic sample was 1508.18 ten thousand head, up 1.91% from 9! Shipment plans at large corporate hog producers increased. In the first ten days of the month, shipments from large-scale hog companies were slow due to the National Day holiday, while their average daily shipment plans for the middle and latter parts of this month are relatively high. Also, because hogpricesWith operations at the bottom, the per-head loss from fattening pigs has deepened. After prolonged losses on shipments, producers are facing financial difficulties and a greater need to raise cash, further strengthening market willingness to sell. Selling sentiment is strong among both independent producers and large-scale pig companies!
In particular, temperatures have fluctuated sharply recently, increasing the risks facing pig fatteningswine diseaseand pig shipment weights have risen. The outlook for pork supply is ample, the price spread between standard-weight and heavyweight pigs has narrowed, and producers are less confident about the outlook for heavier pigs. There is a risk that producers will hold pigs back to increase their weight, but willingness to sell is strong!
On the demand side, in 10 month, the short National Day holiday briefly improves demand at the margin. However, after the holiday, consumer markets return to normal! With ample supplies of substitute products, residents favor lighter, healthier diets, and pork’s share of consumption has declined. Substitution demand for poultry, aquatic products, and beef and mutton has increased. Trading in fresh pork is sluggish, downstream markets have little apparent need to restock, slaughterhouse orders have shrunk, and average daily slaughter volumes have been slow to increase!
In addition, as pig shipment weights rise, support from the heavyweight-pig market has weakened slightly. Sentiment toward secondary fattening is cautious in the domestic market, confidence in entering the market is moderate, and most participants are taking a wait-and-see approach!
Based on this analysis, domestic hog prices are under downward pressure amid adjustments in supply and demand, and the market may remain weak in the short term! However, I believe that once the quoted price for standard-weight pigs falls below 10 yuan/kg, there may be limited room for further declines. Secondary fattening may emerge, and producers may also resist lowering prices. Key attention should be paid to changes in market trading!
According to data from industry organizations, on 13 10, the average price nationwide for lean-type standard hogs at farmgate was 9.99 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan from yesterday. Hog prices fell sharply through key levels, with the average price dropping below 10 yuan/kg. Prices fell sharply across northern and southern China, and the market was once again awash in “red” as prices declined! Compared with the monthly high of 10.25 yuan/kg at the start of the month, prices were down 0.26 yuan and are about to fall back to last month-end levels!
Based on regional feedback, among the 7 key hog-producing regions in the north and south monitored nationwide, data are available for nearly 28 regions. The average hog farmgate price was close to 10.05 yuan/kg in places such as Hebei and Hunan. Market quotations for hogs across northern and southern China ranged from 9.1 to 11.45 yuan/kg, with Xinjiang the lowest and Fujian the highest. Prices in most northern and southern regions fell back to 9.7–10.4 yuan/kg. After hog prices fell below 10 yuan/kg in Northeast, Northwest, and Southwest China, quotations in North China are also set to fall below 10 yuan/kg across the board. In higher-priced regions, quotations in East China have fallen, with mainstream prices also dropping to around 10.15–10.4 yuan/kg.
Hog prices are currently under downward pressure, and the average price has once again fallen sharply through key levels. This renewed downward movement, along with the widening price cuts, is mainly due to the continued imbalance between market production and sales!
On the supply side, according to earlier monitoring by industry organizations, in 10, the actual monthly shipment plan for 173 large-scale hog companies in the domestic sample was 1508.18 ten thousand head, up 1.91% from 9! Shipment plans at large corporate hog producers increased. In the first ten days of the month, shipments from large-scale hog companies were slow due to the National Day holiday, while their average daily shipment plans for the middle and latter parts of this month are relatively high. Also, because hogpricesWith operations at the bottom, the per-head loss from fattening pigs has deepened. After prolonged losses on shipments, producers are facing financial difficulties and a greater need to raise cash, further strengthening market willingness to sell. Selling sentiment is strong among both independent producers and large-scale pig companies!
In particular, temperatures have fluctuated sharply recently, increasing the risks facing pig fatteningswine diseaseand pig shipment weights have risen. The outlook for pork supply is ample, the price spread between standard-weight and heavyweight pigs has narrowed, and producers are less confident about the outlook for heavier pigs. There is a risk that producers will hold pigs back to increase their weight, but willingness to sell is strong!
On the demand side, in 10 month, the short National Day holiday briefly improves demand at the margin. However, after the holiday, consumer markets return to normal! With ample supplies of substitute products, residents favor lighter, healthier diets, and pork’s share of consumption has declined. Substitution demand for poultry, aquatic products, and beef and mutton has increased. Trading in fresh pork is sluggish, downstream markets have little apparent need to restock, slaughterhouse orders have shrunk, and average daily slaughter volumes have been slow to increase!
In addition, as pig shipment weights rise, support from the heavyweight-pig market has weakened slightly. Sentiment toward secondary fattening is cautious in the domestic market, confidence in entering the market is moderate, and most participants are taking a wait-and-see approach!
Based on this analysis, domestic hog prices are under downward pressure amid adjustments in supply and demand, and the market may remain weak in the short term! However, I believe that once the quoted price for standard-weight pigs falls below 10 yuan/kg, there may be limited room for further declines. Secondary fattening may emerge, and producers may also resist lowering prices. Key attention should be paid to changes in market trading!