In Week 40 (9月28日-10月4日), hogpricescontinued to weaken; the recovery in pork consumption fell short of expectations, putting downward pressure on the average price of fresh pork. Monitoring data from 26 designated livestock and poultry production monitoring counties across the province show that in Week 40, the province's average hog price at sale was 10.70元/kg, down 16.80% year on year and 3.78% week on week. The lowest price was 9.80元/kg (down 4.85% from last week's low). Pork market prices were weak and declining this week, with a weekly average of 20.19元/kg, down 16.15% year on year and 1.61% week on week.
Piglet supply was ample and demand was weak. Prices fell for 10 consecutive weeks, reaching a new low for the year. This week, the average piglet sale price in our province was 17.32元/kg, down 30.27% year on year and 2.70% week on week.pigpricesPrices fell, mainly because the market had an ample supply of piglets and producers were relatively cautious about restocking, leading topigletpricesa decline. The combined impact of losses in pig farming and losses from piglet sales prompted producers to continue reducing production. The rate of culling and marketing of sows increased somewhat in the third quarter. According to monitoring by the Shandong Provincial Animal Husbandry General Station, as of the end of 9, the number of breeding sows held by large-scale pig farms in our province decreased by 6.89% year on year and by 0.71% month on month.
Looking ahead, as the fourth quarter begins, if there is no widespreadpig diseaseimpact,pigletPig pricesmay find it difficult to sustain their downward trend. First, from the perspective of seasonal demand for restocking piglets, sows bred in the fourth quarter will produce weaned piglets for sale after the Spring Festival holiday in 2027, coinciding with the peak season for piglet restocking. Second, the average piglet price has now fallen below the cost line, and producers have a strong inclination to hold prices firm. It is expected that in 10pigletpricesthere will be limited room for further declines. As excess hog production capacity from the previous period continues to be phased out, and market participants' expectations for a recovery in the hog market in 2027hog markethave improved to some extent, enthusiasm for capacity reduction may ease, and demand for piglet restocking will be released steadily,pigletPig pricesare expected to enter a sustained upward trend.
This week, the average ex-farm price of finished hogs declined, and losses from hog farming increased slightly. This week, in our province,hog-to-grainprice ratio was 4.53:1, down 13.97% year over year and down 2.96% week over week. Based on an marketed weight of 120 kg per head, in week 40, the average loss per head was approximately 250 yuan for farrow-to-finish operations and approximately 270 yuan for operations that purchase piglets for finishing. Operating pressure on small and medium-sized farms persists.
Hog prices were weak and declined this week, mainly because supply-side pressure remained high, with supply exceeding demand. Hogpricesfluctuated with a weak bias. On the supply side, farms face sales pressure and will continue to actively market hogs ahead of the holiday. Marketing rates have accelerated to varying degrees among large farming groups, small and medium-sized farms, and individual farmers. At the same time, fattened hogs from earlier secondary fattening operations have begun to be marketed, slightly increasing the number of hogs marketed. In addition, as the effects of high temperatures have subsided, average marketed hog weight has increased, leaving market supply relatively ample.
According to monitoring by the Provincial Animal Husbandry General Station, in 9 the number of live pigs held by large-scale pig farms in our province increased by 17.93% month on month. Among these, the number of commercial finishing pigs aged over 5 months increased by 8.03% month on month. The overall production capacity for live pigs remains substantial, and supply pressure continues to rise.
On the demand side, pre-holiday stockpiling has begun, and slaughterhouse operating rates have continued to recover. However, frozen meat released from cold storage has competed for consumer demand, while fresh meat sales to end consumers have been average. Demand and prices have declined periodically and structurally. According to monitoring, this week the trading volume at the 17 key pork wholesale markets in our province rose by 26.64% year on year and fell by 2.41% month on month.
Overall, the periodic increase in live pig marketings has coincided with an improvement in seasonal demand. However, pressure from oversupply, along with structural and periodic changes in demand, has led to weak declines in the average market price of finishing pigs and the consumer price of pork.
Looking ahead, pork consumption in the fourth quarter will enter its annual peak season. Concentrated demand from cured-meat processing, early stockpiling for the Spring Festival, and year-end restaurant banquets will support a recovery in market demand.
Overall, pig prices may rise amid fluctuations in the fourth quarter, but the increase will be limited because the reduction in overall live pig production capacity has been gradual. Specifically, 10 is a transition period in which demand shifts from low to high; it is still too early for cured-meat processing, and, compared with 9, there is also no stockpiling demand for holidays such as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day. Demand is weakening and prices are under pressure. In addition, live pig marketings may be relatively limited during the National Day holiday. Once marketings resume after the holiday, the number of days for normal pig shipments in 10 will be shorter, meaning average daily marketings will increase. Therefore, in 10, pig pricesmayfall slightly month on month in 9, but will still trend upward compared with 8. From 11 to 12, temperatures will gradually fall, and demand from cured-meat processing, sausage-making, and holiday consumption will be concentrated, providing increasingly strong support for demand. Pig prices are expected to remain relatively high. However, live pig marketings will be relatively ample, which may limit price increases. In mid-to-late 12, once stockpiling for New Year's Day is over, large-scale farming enterprises will increase marketings at year-end to meet their annual performance targets. Supply and demand will again become loose, and pig prices may come under pressure and weaken.
We recommend that livestock farms and households strictly implement the relevant requirements for comprehensive regulation of live pig production capacity; closely track regulatory policies and market price trends; formulate breeding measures scientifically; continuously optimize feeding and management; and reduce costs and improve efficiency through multiple measures. They should market pigs in line with market conditions, avoid holding them back in the hope of a price rally, and also avoid expanding against the trend or replenishing stocks in a concentrated manner, thereby guarding against business risks arising from market fluctuations.
Piglet supply was ample and demand was weak. Prices fell for 10 consecutive weeks, reaching a new low for the year. This week, the average piglet sale price in our province was 17.32元/kg, down 30.27% year on year and 2.70% week on week.pigpricesPrices fell, mainly because the market had an ample supply of piglets and producers were relatively cautious about restocking, leading topigletpricesa decline. The combined impact of losses in pig farming and losses from piglet sales prompted producers to continue reducing production. The rate of culling and marketing of sows increased somewhat in the third quarter. According to monitoring by the Shandong Provincial Animal Husbandry General Station, as of the end of 9, the number of breeding sows held by large-scale pig farms in our province decreased by 6.89% year on year and by 0.71% month on month.
Looking ahead, as the fourth quarter begins, if there is no widespreadpig diseaseimpact,pigletPig pricesmay find it difficult to sustain their downward trend. First, from the perspective of seasonal demand for restocking piglets, sows bred in the fourth quarter will produce weaned piglets for sale after the Spring Festival holiday in 2027, coinciding with the peak season for piglet restocking. Second, the average piglet price has now fallen below the cost line, and producers have a strong inclination to hold prices firm. It is expected that in 10pigletpricesthere will be limited room for further declines. As excess hog production capacity from the previous period continues to be phased out, and market participants' expectations for a recovery in the hog market in 2027hog markethave improved to some extent, enthusiasm for capacity reduction may ease, and demand for piglet restocking will be released steadily,pigletPig pricesare expected to enter a sustained upward trend.
This week, the average ex-farm price of finished hogs declined, and losses from hog farming increased slightly. This week, in our province,hog-to-grainprice ratio was 4.53:1, down 13.97% year over year and down 2.96% week over week. Based on an marketed weight of 120 kg per head, in week 40, the average loss per head was approximately 250 yuan for farrow-to-finish operations and approximately 270 yuan for operations that purchase piglets for finishing. Operating pressure on small and medium-sized farms persists.
Hog prices were weak and declined this week, mainly because supply-side pressure remained high, with supply exceeding demand. Hogpricesfluctuated with a weak bias. On the supply side, farms face sales pressure and will continue to actively market hogs ahead of the holiday. Marketing rates have accelerated to varying degrees among large farming groups, small and medium-sized farms, and individual farmers. At the same time, fattened hogs from earlier secondary fattening operations have begun to be marketed, slightly increasing the number of hogs marketed. In addition, as the effects of high temperatures have subsided, average marketed hog weight has increased, leaving market supply relatively ample.
According to monitoring by the Provincial Animal Husbandry General Station, in 9 the number of live pigs held by large-scale pig farms in our province increased by 17.93% month on month. Among these, the number of commercial finishing pigs aged over 5 months increased by 8.03% month on month. The overall production capacity for live pigs remains substantial, and supply pressure continues to rise.
On the demand side, pre-holiday stockpiling has begun, and slaughterhouse operating rates have continued to recover. However, frozen meat released from cold storage has competed for consumer demand, while fresh meat sales to end consumers have been average. Demand and prices have declined periodically and structurally. According to monitoring, this week the trading volume at the 17 key pork wholesale markets in our province rose by 26.64% year on year and fell by 2.41% month on month.
Overall, the periodic increase in live pig marketings has coincided with an improvement in seasonal demand. However, pressure from oversupply, along with structural and periodic changes in demand, has led to weak declines in the average market price of finishing pigs and the consumer price of pork.
Looking ahead, pork consumption in the fourth quarter will enter its annual peak season. Concentrated demand from cured-meat processing, early stockpiling for the Spring Festival, and year-end restaurant banquets will support a recovery in market demand.
Overall, pig prices may rise amid fluctuations in the fourth quarter, but the increase will be limited because the reduction in overall live pig production capacity has been gradual. Specifically, 10 is a transition period in which demand shifts from low to high; it is still too early for cured-meat processing, and, compared with 9, there is also no stockpiling demand for holidays such as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day. Demand is weakening and prices are under pressure. In addition, live pig marketings may be relatively limited during the National Day holiday. Once marketings resume after the holiday, the number of days for normal pig shipments in 10 will be shorter, meaning average daily marketings will increase. Therefore, in 10, pig pricesmayfall slightly month on month in 9, but will still trend upward compared with 8. From 11 to 12, temperatures will gradually fall, and demand from cured-meat processing, sausage-making, and holiday consumption will be concentrated, providing increasingly strong support for demand. Pig prices are expected to remain relatively high. However, live pig marketings will be relatively ample, which may limit price increases. In mid-to-late 12, once stockpiling for New Year's Day is over, large-scale farming enterprises will increase marketings at year-end to meet their annual performance targets. Supply and demand will again become loose, and pig prices may come under pressure and weaken.
We recommend that livestock farms and households strictly implement the relevant requirements for comprehensive regulation of live pig production capacity; closely track regulatory policies and market price trends; formulate breeding measures scientifically; continuously optimize feeding and management; and reduce costs and improve efficiency through multiple measures. They should market pigs in line with market conditions, avoid holding them back in the hope of a price rally, and also avoid expanding against the trend or replenishing stocks in a concentrated manner, thereby guarding against business risks arising from market fluctuations.