After the National Day holiday,the hog marketremains sluggish! Although seasonal demand is gradually entering its peak season, actual demand has lacked momentum, while pressure on the supply side remains undiminished, and the fundamental imbalance between production and sales persists. Although pork prices have tended to stabilize over the past two days, with support at the market bottom strengthening, prices still face severe upward pressure, and the market continues to move sideways! According to data from industry organizations, the average price of standard hogs at farm-gate is currently 10.13 yuan/kg. Prices are weak but stable to slightly stronger, with supply and demand locked in intense competition. In the short term, the market may be influenced by the pace of hog shipments, with prices likely to continue seesawing. However, significant moves in either direction are difficult, and prices are mainly expected to remain range-bound!
On the demand side, seasonal demand is entering its peak season, but feedback on actual transactions in white-strip pork is subdued! On the one hand, after the National Day holiday,Pork consumptionMarket concentration has declined, and trading in fresh pork has gradually cooled. Domestic market demand has weakened, while the marginal recovery in household demand has been slow. In cities, however, cooler tourism consumption and reduced population mobility have led to weaker demand from restaurants and large-scale buyers. Slaughterhouse orders have shrunk, and operating rates remain low. Meanwhile, the average weight of hogs shipped in China has increased, with the average shipment weight of sampled pig companies rising to 123.91 kg, up 0.13 kg from the previous period. Pork production capacity per unit has increased, and frozen pork inventories remain high, leading the market to expect ample supply prospects!
On the supply side, hog supply in China is ample, with production capacity being released at a high level! In particular, the earlier stabilization and recovery in the sow inventory, together with high sow PSY values, means supply capacity is sufficient! Last month, however, large-scale pig companies fell short of their shipment plans, with the average completion rate among sampled pig companies at 99.01%. Some capacity was shipped later than planned, and this month's actual shipment plan increased slightly by nearly 2%, so supply pressure remains. In particular, supply pressure is considerable for small and medium-sized hogs, while demand is insufficient to absorb it,Secondary fatteningwith no concentrated entry into the market during this period!
Based on this analysis, amid the tug-of-war between supply and demand, market fundamentals are weak, and hog prices are fluctuating at the bottom! Although producers have recently tried to boost prices by reducing sales volume, demand has been insufficient to absorb supply, and reductions by large-scale pig companies have not met expectations. However, as the weather cools and domestic market demand improves later on, domestic hog prices are expected to stop falling and recover!
Citing institutional data, due to slaughterhouse price adjustments, the price for standard-weight pigs is expected to be 10.09 yuan/kg on 10月12日. Pay close attention to changes in the pace of market buying and selling!