Southeast coast in 2026 year 9 monthCorn marketThe pace of the transition to new crop supplies is clearly faster than in previous years. The concentrated arrival of new-season corn in North China directly prompted Nankang quotations to shift earlier to a new-crop pricing system. Prices at northern and southern ports are moving down in tandem, and trade margins are gradually returning to a positive basis. In 10 month, as concentrated supply from production regions contends with a recovery in downstream demand for essential purchases, the market will enter a new phase of slight price testing at the bottom and a simultaneous rebound in trading activity.
In late 2026 9, the transition between old-crop and new-crop corn in the southeastern coastal market was markedly faster than in previous years. Driven by the concentrated arrival of new-season corn in North China, spot quotations at southern ports had already begun transitioning to a new-crop pricing system before large volumes of new-crop grain from Northeast China moved south. As of the end of 9, the pickup price for Grade Two corn at Guangdong Port was 2310-2330 yuan/ton, down about 80 yuan/ton cumulatively during the month, including a decline of 50 yuan/ton in the second half of the month. This round of price declines at southern ports also directly drove northern ports' new-crop grain purchase prices down in tandem.
As can be seen from Figure 1, after prices at Nangang fell first in 9 month, prices at Beigang softened. The theoretical trade margin between the southern and northern ports first declined and then rose, moving toward parity in the latter half of 9 month. As of 9 month 30, based on prices at the southern and northern ports, the theoretical trade margin between them was -10 yuan/ton, and the average theoretical monthly profit was approximately -41.59 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.97 yuan/ton from 8 month. Based on real-time prices at the southern and northern ports, the average trade margin between them was -3.06 yuan/ton, up 16.46 yuan/ton month over month. In light of actual conditions this month, losses on trade in old grain increased, while new-crop grain traded at parity.
9 month: Prices in consumption areas shift to pricing for the new crop ahead of schedule amid the impact of new grain from North China
In previous years, the price shift from old-crop to new-crop corn in the southeastern coastal market often was not complete until large volumes of new-crop corn from Northeast China were shipped south through ports in 10 month. This year, however, the concentrated arrival of new-crop corn in North China brought this timing forward by nearly half a month. In mid-to-late 9 month, large volumes of new-crop corn from Shandong and Henan came onto the market, with overall quality performing well: test weight was generally above 710 g/L, and the share of mold-damaged kernels was below 2%, fully meeting feed companies’ usage standards. The purchase price for local new-crop corn in Henan, as received, once fell below 2000 yuan/ton, while actual transaction prices for local traders mostly remained at 2060-2100 yuan/ton. This price level gave new-crop corn from North China a direct cost advantage for shipment south across regions. The port-delivery price for new-crop corn at the Zhoukou Port in Henan fell to around 2180 yuan/ton, putting its calculated landed cost at Guangdong Port below 2300 yuan/ton. Under pressure from these low-priced supplies from North China, the mainstream self-pickup price for Grade Two corn at Guangdong Port fell from 2400 yuan/ton at the beginning of 9 month to 2320 yuan/ton in late 9 month, completing the transition from old-crop pricing to new-crop pricing.
The early decline in prices in the southeastern coastal sales region also prompted new-crop grain purchase prices at northern ports to adjust downward in tandem. Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port, which had previously maintained new-crop grain purchase prices at 2270 yuan/ton, saw prices fall to 2120 yuan/ton at the end of 9 month. The decline in grain collection costs at northern ports further lowered the theoretical delivered cost of moving grain from the Northeast to the south, and the northern and southern ports'Corn pricesThe system completed its transition to the new crop. However, in 9 month, trading activity in the southeastern coastal market did not increase in step with the price decline. Downstream feed companies continued to rely mainly on fulfilling earlier contracts and using inventory, while spot transactions for bulk grain accounted for less than 30%. Overall, the market showed a pattern of “prices adjusting first, with trading following later.”
10 month: New grain from Northeast China enters the market on a large scale, with supply-demand dynamics driving market trends.
Entering 10 month, corn from Northeast China will enter the stage of concentrated marketing across the region. The corn harvest progress in Heilongjiang and Liaoning will exceed 80%, and a large volume of new grain will flow into the market, significantly increasing the pressure from rising supply in Northeast China. However, the price-suppressing effect of low-priced grain from North China on southern sales regions will not disappear. It will continue to weigh on quotations at ports along the southeastern coast, further squeezing the price room for grain from Northeast China to move south and significantly increasing the difficulty for Northeast China traders to ship grain out.
The southern coastal region still has a certain volume of imported grain substitutes in stock, so demand for corn is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. Against this backdrop, buyers at northern ports face little procurement pressure and are unlikely to take the initiative to raise purchase prices. Prices paid for new-crop grain at northern ports are therefore likely to remain weak, continuing to put downward pressure on prices across the southeastern coastal corn market from the cost side. However, as corn prices continue to fall, the price gap between corn and substitutes such as wheat and barley will narrow rapidly, significantly improving corn’s value for money. Feed companies that previously used large volumes of low-priced substitutes will gradually restore corn’s share in feed formulations. Downstream companies’ acceptance of spot corn prices and their use of corn to meet essential demand are expected to increase.
In addition, although the northeastern production area is in the peak period for the concentrated arrival of the new crop, planting costs this year have risen compared with the same period last year. Land rent and machinery costs per mu have increased by between 150 and 300 yuan. Given current low purchase prices, large-scale growers and farming cooperatives are already showing some reluctance to sell. Also, precipitation in the production area was limited this autumn, and the moisture content of the new crop is generally lower than in previous years, making storage conditions relatively favorable. After mid-10, once the harvest of grain purchased directly at the production-area level has ended, the increase in effective market supply in the northeastern production area may narrow, driven by reluctance to sell at the grassroots level. At that point, ports in the north and south may see the first buying-and-selling standoff of the year. Increased market trading activity may also have some supportive effect on prices.
Overall outlook: Prices are expected to edge down slightly, while trading activity recovers in tandem.
Considering changes in supply from major production regions, distribution costs, and demand in consumption areas, corn prices along the southeastern coast in 10 month will remain affected by cost transmission from production regions. Prices may edge down by 20-30 yuan/ton in the first and middle parts of the month, with mainstream transaction prices for Grade Two corn at Guangdong ports potentially falling back into the range of 2270-2290 yuan/ton. As prices gradually bottom out, downstream feed companies’ purchases to meet essential needs will gradually increase, and market trading activity will improve significantly compared with 9 month. The previous pattern of “weak prices and sluggish trading” will be broken, and the southeastern coastal corn market in 10 month will be characterized by “a slight price dip to a bottom and a recovery in trading activity.”