According to statistics from SunSirs, the average hog price in 9 fell 1.05% month on month, with oversupply dragging prices lower amid fluctuations. In 10, sample breeding enterprises’ planned hog marketings increased 2.45% month on month. Backlogged hogs that were not marketed in 9 are being released in a concentrated wave. Together with the gradual increase in average hog trading weight, this is further intensifying supply pressure. The boost from holiday stocking has faded, and end-user demand has declined in the short term. Meanwhile, frozen pork storage capacity utilization remains high, creating potential pressure from product releases. With multiple bearish factors converging, hog prices are expected to remain under pressure in 10. Disease outbreaks, marketing pace, and frozen pork releases warrant attention.
A supply-surplus situation emerged in 9, with hog prices fluctuating under downward pressure
According to statistics from Zhuochuang Information, hog prices followed a gradual downward trend in 9, averaging 10.68 yuan/kg, down 1.05% month on month. Although holiday stockpiling for the two holidays was favorable for hog demand, overall supply remained ample, and the resulting supply surplus put downward pressure on hog prices. In 10, planned market hog shipments in the sample showed a month-on-month increase. In addition, without support from holiday stockpiling, demand is expected to decline temporarily. Considering also that the current frozen pork inventory utilization rate is high, hog prices in 10 may continue to face downward pressure.
10-month planned hog shipments from farms increased month over month
Increased supply is the key factor weighing on hog prices in 10. The increase in shipments comes from large-scale farms postponing shipments. Hog demand in 9 fell short of market expectations, and many large-scale farming companies did not meet their originally planned 9 shipment targets on schedule. According to statistics from Zhuochuang Information, the completion rate for planned hog shipments in 9 was 98.74%, with some standard-weight hog shipments postponed. Hog supplies held back in 9 will be released in concentrated volumes in 10, causing planned hog shipments in 10 to increase by 2.45% month over month. Earlier, some industry participants held back hogs, leaving a relatively large stock of heavier hogs on the market. Average trading weight for hogs rose consecutively in the third quarter. Compared with the increase in the number of hogs shipped, the higher average shipment weight adds more to pork supply, further intensifying market supply pressure.
The holiday stockpiling boost has faded, and demand for live pigs is declining in the short term in 10 month.
On the demand side, stocking for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays has ended, and demand for live pigs has temporarily declined, making it difficult to provide strong support. Before the two holidays, slaughterhouses, supermarkets, and food-service channels stocked up in advance, driving a temporary rise in the operating rate of slaughterhouses in late 9 month. This effectively brought forward consumer demand. After the holidays, the boost from tourism and dining out faded, and households made fewer bulk purchases of fresh meat, with end-consumer demand returning to normal levels. According to statistics from Zhuochuang Information, slaughterhouses processed an average of 20.34 ten thousand pigs per day during the pre-holiday stocking peak, compared with 16.53 ten thousand pigs per day after the holidays, a month-on-month decrease of 18.73%. As orders declined, slaughterhouses generally adopted a make-to-order approach and took a cautious stance on purchasing, regardinglive pig pricesForm direct suppression.
High frozen-goods inventories create hidden supply pressure
In addition to spot supply and demand, high frozen pork inventories are also a major bearish factor. Frozen pork storage capacity utilization continued to decline in the third quarter, but remained relatively high compared with previous years. The initial stocking of frozen pork tied up a large amount of capital. As storage periods lengthened, warehousing costs continued to accumulate. Under pressure to turn over capital, frozen pork traders have an incentive to release inventory. This would divert demand away from fresh pork, crowding out fresh pork consumption and further weighing on spot hog prices. The timing of frozen pork inventory releases is also uncertain. If spot prices rebound slightly, traders’ willingness to release inventory will increase significantly, limiting the scope for a rebound in hog prices.
10 Monthly Market Summary and Medium- to Long-Term Outlook
Overall, 10 monthLive pig marketBearish factors are dominant. Increased supply, a post-holiday decline in consumption, and potential releases from frozen pork inventories are jointly weighing on hog prices. Going forward, focus on three key variables: localizedswine diseasesThe extent of the spread, the actual rate of livestock shipments from large-scale farms, and the volume of concentrated frozen meat stock releases. SunSirs estimates that the monthly average in 10 may be 10.07 yuan/kg, with an estimated month-on-month decrease of 6.28%. (Add a clear price forecast conclusion, such as highs and lows, the average price, and month-on-month or year-on-year changes.)
In the medium to long term, capacity reduction in the industry is still ongoing, but there is a lag before capacity contraction affects live hog supply. The supply side is unlikely to see a sustained decline in 10 month. Overall, market conditions in the fourth quarter are expected to feature a moderate rebound, with prices projected to range between 10.0-10.6 yuan/kg. A turning point toward a sustained price increase will have to wait until the effects of capacity reduction materialize further.