RecentLive pig marketMultiple bearish signals: pig prices continue to fall, while raw materials such as corn and soybean meal push upfeed prices, the breeding sector is squeezed from both sides by falling prices and rising costs, with losses per head continuing and cash flow under pressure for farmers. Meanwhile, successive reserve-meat auctions have gone without bids. This does not indicate a shortage in the market; rather, spot supply is ample, slaughtering companies have little willingness to purchase, and the reserve purchases have had limited effect in supporting the market.
Pork prices fall, feed prices rise
According to monitoring of markets and collection points in 500 counties nationwide, during the 5 week of 9 (data collection date: 9 month 30), prices for beef cattle, mutton sheep, fresh milk, soybean meal, and compound feed for finishing pigs rose month on month, while prices for pig products, eggs, chicken, commercial-generation chicks,cornDecreased month over month, while the prices of broiler compound feed and layer compound feed remained unchanged month over month.
Live pig product prices. The national average price of piglets was 19.77 yuan/kg, down 2.1% from the previous week and down 30.0% year on year. Across 29 monitored provinces nationwidePiglet pricesPrices fell across the board. Prices were higher in South China, at 22.29 yuan/kg, and lower in East China, at 18.70 yuan/kg. The national average live pig price was 11.13 yuan/kg, down 2.0% from the previous week and down 16.1% year over year. Ningxia, GuangdongLive pig pricesPrices rose, while hog prices fell in 28 provinces, including Shanghai, Shandong, Beijing, Henan, and Shanxi.
Prices were higher in the southwest, at 11.70 yuan/kg, and lower in the northeast, at 10.64 yuan/kg. The national average pork price was 21.07 yuan/kg, down 0.5% from the previous week and down 12.8% year over year. Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Beijing, Hubei, Sichuan, and 10 other provincesPork pricesPrices rose, while pork prices fell in 18 provinces, including Shanghai, Guangxi, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Shandong. Prices were unchanged in Ningxia and Xinjiang. Prices were higher in South China, at 23.46 yuan/kg, and lower in Northeast China, at 18.03 yuan/kg.
Feed prices. The national average corn price was 2.44 yuan/kg, down 0.4% from the previous week and down 2.0% year on year. The corn price in the three northeastern provinces, the main production area, was 2.32 yuan/kg, up 0.4% from the previous week; the corn price in Guangdong Province, the main sales area, was 2.49 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. The national average soybean meal price was 3.42 yuan/kg, up 0.3% from the previous week and up 4.3% year on year. The average price of compound feed for fattening pigs was 3.37 yuan/kg, up 0.3% from the previous week and down 0.3% year on year. The average price of compound feed for broilers was 3.49 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week and down 0.6% year on year. The average price of compound feed for laying hens was 3.25 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week and up 0.6% year on year.
Huachu Network issues its 4th bidding notice
All three auctions for frozen pork stocks failed to attract bids, and a fourth release from storage is about to begin! Why is it so difficult to sell pork from the national reserves?
China Grain Reserves Corporation Network issued the “Notice on Matters Concerning the Fourth Auction for the Outbound Release and Collection of Unsold Lots from the Central Reserve Frozen Pork Rotation Outbound Release Auction on 2026-9-15.”
The 1200 tonnes of domestic frozen pork listed this time were first offered for rotation and release in the initial round on 9 month 15. On 9 month 15, 9 month 21, and 9 month 28, three consecutive rounds of bidding were held, but all the lots went unsold, with no buyers taking delivery. The unsold 1200 tonnes of frozen meat will now be offered in a fourth round of bidding on 10 month 12 at 8:30-16:30.
According to a forecast by industry organization Zhuochuang Information, numbered pork cuts (mainly cuts No. two and No. four) are constrained by high inventories and a measured stocking pace. Combined with ample supplies of fresh numbered cuts and a narrowing price gap between fresh and frozen products, this makes a larger price increase unlikely. Prices are expected to rise only modestly, remaining at a low level overall, with cuts No. two and No. four unlikely to break the “sixteen yuan” mark. Supported by steady demand for stocking up on cooked food, prices for elbow cuts are expected to rise steadily from 11 to 12 months, with the maximum cumulative increase potentially staying within 15%. Among by-products, weaker demand for pig heads may cause prices to fall rather than rise. However, with frozen-product inventories low, slaughtering companies may be inclined to hold prices firm, and prices for domestically produced frozen pig heads may stabilize after falling. Demand for pig trotters is picking up, and prices may continue to rise through the fourth quarter. Demand for ribs and fat products is strong in the fourth quarter, but prices have already reached a period high, limiting further upside; the cumulative increase may be 4%-10%.
It should be noted that the rotation of reserve pork can only serve as one of the reference indicators for market trends. The key factor in pork prices remainsBreeding sowsHerd inventory, hog slaughter volume, and the state of consumption recovery. Capacity reduction in the industry is currently slow, and the bottoming-out period is prolonged. Everyone should continue to manage cash flow carefully and control breeding costs.