Daily pig marketings continued to increase month over month in 1 and 9 months
9 monthLive pig pricesPrices fluctuated downward. The national average live pig price fell from 11.15 yuan/kg on 9 month 1 to a low of 9.96 yuan/kg on 29. As of 30, the national average live pig price was 10.08 yuan/kg. The monthly average live pig price in 9 month was 10.68 yuan/kg, down 1.48% month over month. According to monitoring data from 卓创资讯, the average daily volume of live pigs shipped by sample enterprises in 9 month was 20.10 ten thousand head, up 5.51% month over month.
Figure 1: National average live pig price and live pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises
Data source: Zhuochuang Information
Within the month, daily hog marketings at the farming end showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing. In the first and middle ten-day periods, farming companies accelerated the pace of hog marketings. In 8 month, farming companies held hogs back to increase their weight. In addition, as temperatures gradually declined in 9 month, hogs gained weight faster and the number of hogs reaching marketable weight gradually increased. Together with the increased enthusiasm for marketing hogs before the Mid-Autumn Festival, these factors led to a continued increase in hog marketings during the first and middle ten-day periods. Only near the end of the month did hog marketings briefly decline, following the concentrated marketing of hogs earlier. The highest daily marketing volume among the sample companies in 9 month was 22.86 ten thousand head on the 23th; the lowest was 17.57 ten thousand head on the 1th.
Hog marketing plans for 2 and 10 months increased month on month
According to sample monitoring by SCI, the planned hog slaughter volume of 251 monitored farming enterprises nationwide in month 9 was 2159.28 ten thousand head, with a plan completion rate of 98.74%. The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in month 10 increased by 2.45% month on month. Hogs slaughtered in month 10 correspond to piglets born in month 4. According to monitoring data from SCI, the number of newborn piglets at sample farming enterprises nationwide in month 4 increased by 1.40% month on month, corresponding to an increase in theoretical hog slaughter volume in month 10.
Figure 2 Statistical chart of planned hog slaughter volume and plan completion rate at sample enterprises
Data source: SunSirs
On the one hand, temperatures across China continued to fall in 10 month, and pigs continued to gain weight faster; on the other hand, the pigs marketed in 10 month correspond to the piglets restocked in 5 month. 5 month is the peak season for piglet restocking throughout the year. Farmers became more active in restocking, and the number of piglets placed increased, leading to a month-on-month increase in planned hog marketings in 10 month.
3, 10: Hog prices may fall first, then rise.
In summary, hog supply is expected to increase month on month in 10, while in 10 there will be no boost from holiday-related demand, and downstream stockpiling activity is likely to remain limited, leaving little support on the demand side. However, considering the earlier period in southern regionsPig diseasesCausing some pigs to be shipped for slaughter early, supplies of heavyweight pigs may tighten again in mid-to-late 10, while 10 is traditionally the period of the yearSecondary fatteningDuring the peak restocking period, restocking for secondary fattening may reduce the actual supply of standard-weight pigs; therefore, the actual increase in hog marketings in 10 may be relatively limited. Overall, demand is relatively weak. In the latter part of the month, restocking for secondary fattening and the practice of holding pigs longer to increase their weight are expected to become more common. Hog prices in 10 are expected to fall first and then rise.