After 7 consecutive quarters of growth, milk collection by the 7 major dairy exporters* and China could turn negative in the final quarter of 2026, with volumes contracting slightly compared with the previous quarter, before stabilizing in the first quarter of 2027 and probably picking up again afterward, forecasts Rabobank in its latest report.
* European Union, United States, New Zealand, Australia, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay
Milk collection under pressure in the EU
The shift in dynamics is primarily linked to the situation in the European Union. The drought that continues, the increase in production costs and the decline in yields are weighing on the dairy farms. The Dutch bank also mentions the possible start of a phenomenon of dairy herd destocking. Added to this are the environmental measures in Northern Europe. This leads Rabobank to anticipate a decline in volumes over the next two quarters.
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In the United States, a dynamic milk collection
The U.S. milk collection is growing faster than the average for other major exporters. The dairy herd is growing, milk composition is improving, and the opening of new plants over the past two years is driving demand.
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El Niño could shake up Oceania…
The milk collection in New Zealand remains on a positive trajectory, with prospects of +1% for the 2026/2027 season. The momentum was also positive in Australia. Nevertheless, these two countries could bear the brunt of the “Super El Niño” expected in the coming months.
Read also: Milk: which countries will see the biggest increase in collection in 2026?
…and South America
A decline in milk collection is expected in Brazil, -1% in the second half of 2026, compared with a dynamic 2025 year. But domestic demand remains under pressure from inflation and household debt. Demand is also expected to be limited in Argentina, whose population is declining due to emigration. Nevertheless, volumes are expected to increase by 1,5 to 3% this year, according to Rabobank, which nevertheless highlights uncertainties related to the El Niño climate phenomenon for both countries.
