COTidienne Grain market on October 8, 2026: grain prices fall ahead of the USDA verdict

Key points:
 

• Markets are cautious ahead of the publication of the report USDA WASDE.
• Russian grain exports are being revived by the Baltic ports.
• Ukrainian exports are relying on the Danube while hoping for support from German ports.

Markets recorded a slight decline in grain prices as they awaited the publication of the report USDA WASDE. Traders are anticipating a drop in U.S. corn yields. Investment funds are maintaining long positions but have reduced their exposure ahead of the report. They could take more profits if the figures are less bullish than expected.

In the United States, wheat remained under pressure from the dollar, which was near its highest levels in almost 18 months, despite export sales exceeding those of the previous week.

While logistical difficulties remain the main factor limiting global grain trade, 54 member countries of United Nations organizations have called on several international institutions to support efforts to restore freedom of navigation in the Black Sea.

Wheat prices retreat on the CBOT

Wheat prices on the wheat on the CBOT fell by between 3 and 5 cents per bushel on Thursday, with the sharpest declines seen in the more distant delivery months, reversing the previous session’s trend. Ample global supplies continued to weigh on the market.

For the December 2026 contract, wheat fell 3.25 cents to 683.25 cts$/bushel. The March 2027 contract also fell 3.25 cts$/bushel to 697.75 cts$/bushel.

The euro strengthened slightly against the dollar, which nevertheless remained at a high level. The European currency was trading at $1,1217, compared with $1,1196 the previous day. This morning at 6:40 (Paris time), it was worth $1,1225.

Weekly net sales of U.S. wheat reached 451 600 t, up 56% from the previous week, mainly to the Philippines, South Korea, Japan and Bangladesh. By contrast, physical shipments fell 31% week on week.

Wheat prices remain hesitant on Euronext

Prices for wheat on Euronext remained hesitant on Thursday, caught between logistical difficulties in the Black Sea and a resurgence in international demand.

For the December 2026 contract, wheat held at €244,25/t, while the March 2027 contract fell by €0,50/t to €246,25/t.

This week, wheat shipments from the port of La Pallice were limited to consignments bound for Spain and Guadeloupe. At Rouen, however, nearly 250 000 t were destined for Morocco.

Corn prices correct in Chicago ahead of USDA report

Corn prices corn on the CBOT edged lower on Thursday as the USDA report was awaited. Despite harvest delays in the Midwest, supplies remain ample. The market is anticipating a U.S. harvest of close to 15,7 billion bushels.

 

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For the December 2026 contract, corn was down 1,75 ct$/bushel at 500,25 cts$/bushel. For March 2027, it also fell by 1,75 cents to 515,25 cts$/bushel.

Hedge funds continue to hold substantial long positions in corn, fueling some concerns about possible profit-taking after the report is published.

Prices for corn were also influenced by oil prices. Brent and WTI prices rose by nearly 3% during the session.

Weekly net sales of corn in the United States stood at 769 500 t, up 44% from the previous week, notably to Mexico and Colombia. Conversely, physical exports fell 11% week on week.

European corn takes a cautious approach on Euronext

Corn prices corn continued their decline, which began on Wednesday, shedding between 0,5 and 3 €/t across contract maturities, tracking the U.S. market.

For the November 2026 contract, corn fell by 2 €/t to 274 €/t. For the March 2027 contract, it lost 3 €/t to 269 €/t.

Russian wheat between Baltic growth and European pressure

According to Ukragroconsult, Russian exports of wheat via the Baltic reached a record 1,4 Mt in September 2026, a direct consequence of logistical disruptions affecting the Azov-Black Sea basin. More than one million tonnes passed through Russian ports in the Baltic and an additional 400 000 t through ports in the Baltic States.

Shipments could rise further to 1,8 Mt in October, while total Russian wheat exports are expected to be around 3 Mt, compared with 2,5 Mt in September.

The Baltic is now the main outlet for Russian grain, accounting for 54% of seaborne exports, far ahead of the Black Sea ports (15%). A significant share of the flows also passes through the Caspian and Volga basins en route to Iran.

At the same time, Lithuania wants to propose to the European Union a ban on the transit of Russian grain through EU territory, as well as targeted sanctions against certain actors in Russia’s agricultural sector.

Ukraine: the Danube remains vital, Germany called in to help

According to Valerii Tkachev, deputy director of the Department of Transport Technologies and Commercial Operations at Ukrzaliznytsia, 1 501 grain wagons were heading to Ukrainian ports on the Danube as of October 8, including 973 to Izmail and 528 to Reni.

The average loading rate bound for the ports of Greater Odesa remains limited to just ten wagons per day.

Faced with these constraints, Ukraine is seeking to develop its agricultural exports via the German ports of Hamburg and Rostock to offset the limitations of current logistics routes.

According to Taras Vysotskyi, Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Agriculture, discussions with German authorities concern, in particular, the establishment of a European mechanism to compensate for additional logistics costs, which could make it possible to increase exports by around 1 Mt per month.

The discussions also covered improving the transit of Ukrainian agricultural products within the European Union, speeding up border formalities, and developing rail transport.

FUNDAMENTALS

Wheat production in Ukraine : 25,6 Mt in 2026/27 (source: UkrAgroConsult)

 

French physical markets on 8 October 2026 (July basis for cereals)

Soft wheat	Specifications	Expiry	euro/t		Change
Delivered Dunkirk	220/11 milling wheat Harvest 2026	Oct.-Dec.	243,00	N	0,00
Delivered La Pallice	76/220/11 Harvest 2026	Oct.-Dec.	246,50	N	0,00
Delivered Rouen	76/220/11 Harvest 2026	Oct.-Dec.	243,00	N	0,00
Delivered Pontivy/Guingamp	feed 74 kg/hl base, 72 kg/hl minimum Harvest 2026	Oct.-Dec.	245,50	N	0,00
Fob Moselle	milling wheat Harvest 2026	Oct.-Dec.	221,50	N	0,00
Fob Rouen	FCW Superior A2 class 1 major. included Harvest 2026	Oct.	253,59	N
Fob La Pallice	FAW Superior A2 class 1 major. included Harvest 2026	Oct.	255,59	N
Ex-department Marne	BPMF 220 Hagberg Harvest 2026	Oct.-Dec.	233,50	N	0,00
Ex-department Eure/Eure-et-Loir	BPMF 76 kg/hl Harvest 2026	Oct.-Dec.	235,50	N	0,00
Ex-department South-East	milling wheat Harvest 2026	Oct.-Dec.	247,00	N	0,00

Maize	Specifications	Expiry	euro/t		Change
Delivered Bordeaux	Harvest 2026	Oct.-Dec.	280,50-285,50	N	-2,00
Delivered La Pallice	Harvest 2026	Oct.-Dec.	285,50	N	-2,00
Delivered Pontivy/Guingamp	Harvest 2026	Oct.-Dec.	318,50	N	-2,00
Fob Bordeaux	Harvest 2026	Oct.-Dec.	290,50-295,50	N	-2,00
Fob Rhine	Harvest 2026	Oct.-Dec.	268,00	N	-2,00
	Harvest 2026	Jan.-June	268,00	N	-3,00
Ex-department South-East	Harvest 2026	Oct.-Dec.	275,00	N	0,00

Durum wheat	Specifications	Expiry	euro/t		Change
Delivered Port-la-Nouvelle	semolina standards Harvest 2026	Oct.-Dec.	295,00	N	0,00
Ex-department Eure/Eure-et-Loir	semolina standards Harvest 2026	Oct.-Dec.	290,00	N	0,00
Ex-department South-East	semolina standards Harvest 2026	Oct.-Dec.	285,00	N	0,00

Feed barley	Specifications	Expiry	euro/t		Change
Delivered Rouen	62-63 kg/hl Harvest 2026	Oct.-Dec.	229,50	N	0,00
Delivered Pontivy/Guingamp	Harvest 2026	Oct.-Dec.	232,50	N	0,00
Fob Moselle	without limit on small barley grains Harvest 2026	Oct.-Dec.	204,50	N	0,00
Ex-department Eure/Eure-et-Loir	Harvest 2026	Oct.-Dec.	209,50	N	0,00
Ex-department South-East	65-67 kg/hl Harvest 2026	Oct.-Dec.	228,00	N	0,00

Malting barley - Winter 6-row	Specifications	Expiry	euro/t		Change
Fob Creil	Faro 11,5% max Port 500 t Harvest 2026	Jan.-June	219,00	N	0,00

Malting barley - Spring	Specifications	Expiry	euro/t		Change
Fob Creil	Planet 11,5% max Port 500 t Harvest 2026	Jan.-June	238,00	N	0,00

Peas	Specifications	Expiry	euro/t		Change
Marne departure	feed harvest 2026	Oct.-Dec.	260,00	N	0,00
Somme/Oise departure	feed harvest 2026	Oct.-Dec.	268,00	N	0,00

Milling by-product quotations on 6 October 2026

Fine soft wheat bran	Specifications	Delivery period	euro/t		Change
Ile-de-France departure		available	177,00-179,00	T	0,00
	pellets	available	194,00-196,00	T	0,00

Semi-white remoulage	Specifications	Delivery period	euro/t		Change
Ile-de-France departure		available	194,00-196,00	T	0,00

Soft wheat low-grade flour	Specifications	Delivery period	euro/t		Change
Ile-de-France departure		available	199,00-201,00	T	0,00

Durum wheat semolina	Specifications	Delivery period	euro/t		Change
Ile-de-France departure		available	199,00-201,00	T	0,00

Commercial dairy product quotations on 1 October 2026

Milk powder	Specifications	Delivery period	euro/t		Change
	Departure NBPL at 30 days 5% H BT bulk	available	3275,00	N	0,00

Whey powder	Specifications	Delivery period	euro/t		Change
	Departure NBPL at 30 days, BILA pH 6 bulk	available	1680,00	N	0,00

Buttermilk	Specifications	Delivery period	euro/t		Change
	without standard	available	n.p.
	Dutch standards	available	n.p.

Dollar/euro exchange rate on 8 October 2026

Currency	Closing value
1 US dollar	0,8940 euro
1 euro	1,1186 dollar

Chicago futures market close on 8 October 2026

Commodities	Close	Chicago
Wheat	683,25	cents/bu.
Corn	500,25	cents/bu.
Ethanol	2,161	$/gallon

Euronext futures market close on 8 October 2026