Official cattle slaughter in the EU declined by 3.851% in the first half of 2026 as lower animal supplies and farmers holding on to their cattle reduced throughput, according to a USDA Foreign Agricultural Service livestock report on the European Union. The most significant absolute reductions were reported in France, Germany, Belgium, and Austria. Extrapolating the lower slaughter level through the full year, the EU cattle herd would expand for the first time in ten years.
However, a heatwave and drought that entered the EU in July 2026 is forecast to negatively affect fodder supplies until the next season. Conditions are probably most pronounced in Hungary and France, where heatwaves are becoming more frequent and reaching extreme temperatures. Shortages and low fodder quality, together with an increased risk of aflatoxin contamination in corn and silage, are likely to affect reproductive performance, feed intake, and mortality rates. Limited feed availability is expected to accelerate livestock slaughter schedules in the second half of 2026.
Overall EU cattle slaughter is forecast to decline by about 2.5% in 2026, resulting in slightly lower ending inventories at the end of the year. Given relatively low milk prices and high beef prices, the reduction is anticipated to be more pronounced for the dairy cow herd than the beef cow herd. With a smaller cow herd, the supply of young animals will fall further in 2027. Based on the lower supply and an increasing incentive to build the beef cattle herd, slaughter is forecast to decline by 0.38% next year.