After several years of favourable conditions, the Dutch agricultural sector presents a more mixed picture in 2026. According to ABN AMRO’s latest sector analysis, dairy, pig and arable crop producers face market prices below production costs, while high energy and fuel prices and drought are adding pressure to other activities.
Despite this context, the bank considers that the agricultural sector generally maintains significant financial resilience, thanks to the strong results achieved between 2023 and 2025, the accumulation of reserves and lower financial pressure. However, it warns that low willingness to invest, also related to uncertainty about permits and nature and water policies, may ultimately affect productivity, innovation and sustainability.
In the pig sector, market conditions have clearly deteriorated in 2026 after three exceptionally good years. ABN AMRO traces the origins of the current European market imbalance to the end of 2025. The factors cited include Chinese tariffs, which make it harder to find outlets for pork cuts that are in low demand within Europe, and restrictions on imports of Spanish pork outside the EU following outbreaks of African swine fever in the country, which led to greater availability of Spanish meat on the EU market.
Added to this is the strength of the euro, which makes European pork relatively more expensive on the world market. As a result, selling prices have fallen while significant costs such as feed, manure management, labor, and energy remain high.
ABN AMRO observes some market improvement during the third quarter of 2026, with a slight increase in pig prices, a smaller supply of piglets, and a cautious recovery in piglet exports to Germany and Spain. However, European production has increased slightly and structural export constraints persist, so the bank does not expect a significant recovery in prices.
The situation varies by farm type. Farms specializing in piglet production will face the greatest pressure over the next six months, as the price of piglets does not cover all costs. Fattening farms, after facing low pig prices and relatively expensive piglets during the first half of the year, are improving their position slightly thanks to the decline in the purchase price of the latter. Closed-cycle farms are also expected to continue operating slightly below production costs.
Farms integrated into market concepts such as Beter Leven are better protected against fluctuations thanks to agreements on premiums or cost-linked compensation. Overall, ABN AMRO expects the liquidity position of the pig sector to deteriorate over the next six months, although fattening farms could see a slight improvement.
In the longer term, high manure management costs and the costs of adapting facilities will continue to put pressure on results. ABN AMRO notes that the costs of building and adapting facilities have risen considerably and that the agreement to move towards animal-welfare-friendly livestock farming will require significant investment in housing and animal welfare. High costs and investment needs will make it increasingly difficult for some of the sector to maintain sufficient profitability in the long term.
29 September 2026/ ABN-AMRO/ Netherlands.
https://www.abnamro.nl/