Continued recovery and rebound! Today, pig prices in many regions moved into a relatively strong bottoming trend. According to monitoring data from Zhu Haoduo, the national average price of live pigs of the Duroc-Landrace-Yorkshire crossbreed on 2026 year 11 month 14 was 8.80 yuan/kg, up another 0.09 yuan/kg from yesterday. As inventories of fattened pigs at farms continue to decline steadily, marginal supply is contracting. Combined with the gradual start of fourth-quarter demand for stocking up on pork for curing, this has brought upward signals for pig prices, and market debate over a turning point in the cycle continues to intensify.
Nationwide, hog prices in this round have shown a pattern of “rising across both the north and south,” with regional price gaps narrowing somewhat. Previously, prices fell more sharply in the northern major production areas, where farmers were more inclined to hold prices firm and the recovery was stronger. In the south, as the weather gradually turned colder, pork sales picked up somewhat, slaughterhouses saw orders recover, and purchasing activity increased, driving spot prices steadily higher. Meanwhile, hog futures and pork stocks also strengthened, further boosting medium- to long-term market confidence.
Months of sustained, deep losses have profoundly changed the industry’s supply structure. Amid persistently low prices, small and medium-sized farms have faced cash-flow pressure, and their willingness to hold hogs for longer has weakened. Culling inefficient sows and slowing the pace of restocking have become common choices. This has carried through to the commercial hog market, where inventories of heavy hogs have been steadily declining. Monitoring data from Zhuochuang Information show that the hog inventory of 196 sample farming companies stood at 7757.66 ten thousand head in 10 month, down 0.48% month on month and 2.76% year on year. The hog inventory of sample companies is also expected to continue declining in 11 month, which is favorable for hog prices in the period ahead.
It should also be objectively noted that this rebound is a recovery from the bottom, and a trend reversal remains some way off. On the one hand, large-scale leading pig farms have stronger financial resources and are adjusting production capacity more slowly, so the industry’s overall volume of market-ready hogs remains high. Some heavier pigs previously held back may still be released, while frozen pork inventories remain relatively high, limiting the room for hog prices to rise. On the other hand, farming efficiency continues to improve: with the same number of pigs in stock, the volume marketed is higher than in the same period in previous years. To some extent, this offsets the reduction in supply resulting from the decline in the sow population, and supply is contracting more slowly than in previous cycles.
Overall, the decline in fattening pig inventories has opened a window for hog prices to recover, with signs of an upward trend gradually emerging. However, the cycle has not yet finished bottoming out. Going forward, key indicators to watch include the pace of destocking of fattening pigs, the realization of demand for cured meat, and shipment plans from leading companies. Amid the interplay of supply and demand, hog prices may seek a new equilibrium amid fluctuations.