In 11 month, hog prices fell again.

 

According to monitoring by AC Agri, during the week from 2 to 6 in 2026/11, the national average live pig price was 9.01 yuan/kg, down 3.43% week on week. By Friday, it had fallen to 8.7 yuan/kg. The average ex-factory price of carcasses at slaughterhouses in 36 large and medium-sized cities was 12.08 yuan/kg.

 

 

By region, Guangdong had the highest pig price at 10.65 yuan/kg, while Yunnan had the lowest, at just 8.34 yuan/kg.

 

Over a longer time frame, in 2024 year 8 month, hog prices once reached a high of 21 yuan per kilogram. Since then, they have fluctuated downward, with the cumulative decline now close to six tenths. The length of this downturn and the depth of the bottoming process are rare in recent years.

 

Notably, the current average weight of hogs being shipped for slaughter is approximately 130 kilograms, which is relatively high. The holding back of heavier hogs has further increased market supply pressure.

 

Falling prices directly erode livestock farming profits.

 

This week, the profit from hog farming under the farrow-to-finish model was -424.06 yuan per head, with losses increasing by 37.88 yuan week over week; the gross profit for farmers who purchase piglets for finishing was -183.05 yuan per head, with losses increasing by 30 yuan week over week. Whether using the farrow-to-finish model or purchasing piglets for finishing, the entire industry has fallen into widespread losses.

 

Aige Agriculture told Guancha.cn that the dominant factor behind this round of declines remains ample supply.

 

On the one hand, large-scale pig farms are gradually resuming shipments, leaving the market well supplied with pigs. On the other hand, in some northern regions, farmers have sold off pigs due to disease, while operators engaged in secondary fattening are “selling but not buying.” Pigs held back earlier are being released onto the market in a concentrated wave, and the combined effect of these three supply factors is weighing on pig prices.

 

There has been no significant increase in demand yet. In line with the usual seasonal pattern, demand for cured meat and sausage-making should gradually pick up around the Beginning of Winter, but there has not yet been any substantial increase in volume. End-market capacity to absorb supply remains insufficient, so hog prices continue to face pressure.

 

Aige Agriculture expects market supply pressure to remain high next week, with hog prices likely to fluctuate and adjust within 8.5-9.0 yuan per kilogram.

 

Over a longer-term horizon, slow capacity reduction is the underlying cause of weak hog prices. The price of two-way crossbred gilts has fallen to around 1270 yuan per head, while the price of piglets has dropped to about 20 yuan per kilogram. Both are near recent lows, reflecting weak industry restocking willingness and the fact that capacity is still being reduced gradually. A reversal in hog prices will take time.

 

 

As hog prices plunged, listed pig companies collectively came under pressure.

 

In the first three quarters, Muyuan Foods' revenue was 922.00 yuan, down 17.52% year on year, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 93.19 yuan; Wens Foodstuff's revenue was 721.97 yuan, down 4.74% year on year, with a loss of 49.61 yuan; New Hope's revenue reached 876.98 yuan, up 8.94% year on year, with a loss of 25.68 yuan. The three leading companies recorded combined losses of 168.48 yuan.

 

Among small-cap pig farming companies, Tianbang Food, Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Zhengbang Technology, and New Wufeng are all experiencing losses to varying degrees.