11 month is now in its middle period. Recently, in China's domestic hog market, pressure on the supply side has not yet been fully absorbed, while demand has been lackluster, and the supply-demand relationship has been slow to improve. Influenced by market sentiment, hog prices have come under downward pressure, with national hog quotations showing a weak adjustment trend.
Hog futures and livestock farming stocks have started to “move ahead of the market.” Recently, Hog futures’ most actively traded contract has continued to rise, and the A-share pork sector has strengthened in tandem.
Pig prices have fallen to the bottom of the cycle
According to the data, as of 11 month 11, nationwideexotic three-way crossbredthe average farm-gate price for standard hogs was 8.66 yuan/kg. Pig prices were stagnant. Compared with 11.98 yuan/kg last year, pig prices fell by 27.71%, placing them at the cyclical “bottom.”
By region, across the 28 northern and southern regions monitored nationwide, the average live hog price nationwide was close to those in Henan and Zhejiang, at 8.51 yuan/kg, with quoted live hog prices ranging from 7.13-9.89 yuan/kg. Tibet had the lowest prices, while Guangdong had the highest. On the rise, quoted prices in Jiangxi, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Henan, Hubei, Tianjin, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, and Sichuan increased by 0.01-0.24 yuan/kg. On the decline, quoted prices in Shanghai, Anhui, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, Gansu, Qinghai, Hunan, Beijing, Shanxi, Guangdong and Guangxi, Hainan, Yunnan and Guizhou, Chongqing, and Tibet fell by 0.01-0.20 yuan/kg.
Thus, on 11 month 11, nationwidelive hog marketwas mainly characterized by volatile consolidation, with the overall trend largely stable and only minor movements. Regional performance varied markedly: conditions were somewhat firm in some northern production areas, while the southern market remained weak. The market entered a stalemate between buyers and sellers, with bullish and bearish sentiment intermingled.
From the supply side, pressure from hog supplies remains high. The domestic piglet market has remained weak recently, with prices for piglets weighing 7 kilograms falling below 80 yuan per head in some regions. Producers that bought piglets for fattening are suffering heavy losses, prompting farms to speed up sow reductions and culling. More low-priced culled sows are entering the market, further adding to the supply burden of market hogs.
In addition, cold air has been frequent since the Start of Winter, and sharp temperature fluctuations have put pig farms in many areas at risk of disease outbreaks. Meanwhile, according to institutional survey data, this month’s planned shipments by large-scale hog producers are set to increase month on month. The 173 surveyed producers plan to ship 1519.67 ten thousand head, up 2.56% month on month, further boosting overall supply capacity. In particular, the average weight of hogs shipped has continued to rise recently, amplifying the impact of high production capacity and exerting clear downward pressure on hog prices.
On the demand side, temperatures have fallen with the arrival of the Start of Winter solar term, while the short-term boost from the Cold衣 Festival has helped improve end-user demand at the margin. Slaughterhouses have received more orders, and operating rates have rebounded slightly. In addition, just over a month remains before the peak southern Chinese season for concentrated bacon curing begins. Expectations for the market outlook are gradually turning more bullish, fresh pork carcass sales are moving more smoothly, and households are showing greater willingness to consume. Support from overall consumer demand is beginning to emerge gradually.
Overall, hog supply remains ample, while demand is also recovering gradually. As both supply and demand increase, market pessimism has eased to some extent,hog marketand may be entering a bottoming phase. As consumption gains further momentum, the center of hog prices may gradually rise from the bottom. However, the rebound will inevitably be limited by substantial supply pressure, and a sharp rally after an oversold decline is unlikely.
Futures and stocks, however, have bucked the trend and “jumped the gun.” When will hog prices reach a turning point?
It is worth noting that,Live hog futuresand livestock farming stocks have begun to “get ahead of the curve.” Recently,live hog futuresmain contracts have continued to rise, while the A-share pork sector has strengthened in tandem.
According to industry analysts, the Beginning of Winter solar term falls on the 11th day of the 7th month. A widespread cold wave began sweeping across the country last weekend. After temperatures dropped sharply in many places, seasonal downstream consumption picked up somewhat. Slaughter volumes have gradually recovered in recent days, while livestock farmers have become more reluctant to sell and more determined to resist price cuts, supporting hog prices in stopping their decline and stabilizing.
Market data also show that the daily hog slaughter volume on the 11th day of the 9th month was 189460 head, an increase of 5.8% from 179090 head on the 30th day of the 10th month. As of the 9th day of the 11th month, the national average hog price was 8.52 yuan per kilogram. Hog prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term, and market expectations have improved somewhat compared with earlier.
Some institutions believe that, with winter disease outbreaks peaking and losses continuing, the reduction in hog inventories is shifting from “voluntary” to “forced.” Sector valuations are currently at historical lows, and an investment window has opened. However, there is usually a lag of around 10 months between changes in the inventory of breeding sows and a contraction in market hog shipments. This means that even if destocking has accelerated, a substantial contraction in supply is unlikely before the second quarter of 2027. Wanlian Securities judges that a turning point in hog prices may emerge in the fourth quarter of 2026, but also notes that the broad near-term trend of ample supply is unlikely to change.
In the short term, based on the number of newborn piglets and slaughter weights, and excluding the impact of disease, hog supply is expected to remain relatively stable through year-end. Attention can be paid to how seasonal changes in consumption support hog prices.
Hog futures and livestock farming stocks have started to “move ahead of the market.” Recently, Hog futures’ most actively traded contract has continued to rise, and the A-share pork sector has strengthened in tandem.
Pig prices have fallen to the bottom of the cycle
According to the data, as of 11 month 11, nationwideexotic three-way crossbredthe average farm-gate price for standard hogs was 8.66 yuan/kg. Pig prices were stagnant. Compared with 11.98 yuan/kg last year, pig prices fell by 27.71%, placing them at the cyclical “bottom.”
By region, across the 28 northern and southern regions monitored nationwide, the average live hog price nationwide was close to those in Henan and Zhejiang, at 8.51 yuan/kg, with quoted live hog prices ranging from 7.13-9.89 yuan/kg. Tibet had the lowest prices, while Guangdong had the highest. On the rise, quoted prices in Jiangxi, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Henan, Hubei, Tianjin, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, and Sichuan increased by 0.01-0.24 yuan/kg. On the decline, quoted prices in Shanghai, Anhui, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, Gansu, Qinghai, Hunan, Beijing, Shanxi, Guangdong and Guangxi, Hainan, Yunnan and Guizhou, Chongqing, and Tibet fell by 0.01-0.20 yuan/kg.
Thus, on 11 month 11, nationwidelive hog marketwas mainly characterized by volatile consolidation, with the overall trend largely stable and only minor movements. Regional performance varied markedly: conditions were somewhat firm in some northern production areas, while the southern market remained weak. The market entered a stalemate between buyers and sellers, with bullish and bearish sentiment intermingled.
From the supply side, pressure from hog supplies remains high. The domestic piglet market has remained weak recently, with prices for piglets weighing 7 kilograms falling below 80 yuan per head in some regions. Producers that bought piglets for fattening are suffering heavy losses, prompting farms to speed up sow reductions and culling. More low-priced culled sows are entering the market, further adding to the supply burden of market hogs.
In addition, cold air has been frequent since the Start of Winter, and sharp temperature fluctuations have put pig farms in many areas at risk of disease outbreaks. Meanwhile, according to institutional survey data, this month’s planned shipments by large-scale hog producers are set to increase month on month. The 173 surveyed producers plan to ship 1519.67 ten thousand head, up 2.56% month on month, further boosting overall supply capacity. In particular, the average weight of hogs shipped has continued to rise recently, amplifying the impact of high production capacity and exerting clear downward pressure on hog prices.
On the demand side, temperatures have fallen with the arrival of the Start of Winter solar term, while the short-term boost from the Cold衣 Festival has helped improve end-user demand at the margin. Slaughterhouses have received more orders, and operating rates have rebounded slightly. In addition, just over a month remains before the peak southern Chinese season for concentrated bacon curing begins. Expectations for the market outlook are gradually turning more bullish, fresh pork carcass sales are moving more smoothly, and households are showing greater willingness to consume. Support from overall consumer demand is beginning to emerge gradually.
Overall, hog supply remains ample, while demand is also recovering gradually. As both supply and demand increase, market pessimism has eased to some extent,hog marketand may be entering a bottoming phase. As consumption gains further momentum, the center of hog prices may gradually rise from the bottom. However, the rebound will inevitably be limited by substantial supply pressure, and a sharp rally after an oversold decline is unlikely.
Futures and stocks, however, have bucked the trend and “jumped the gun.” When will hog prices reach a turning point?
It is worth noting that,Live hog futuresand livestock farming stocks have begun to “get ahead of the curve.” Recently,live hog futuresmain contracts have continued to rise, while the A-share pork sector has strengthened in tandem.
According to industry analysts, the Beginning of Winter solar term falls on the 11th day of the 7th month. A widespread cold wave began sweeping across the country last weekend. After temperatures dropped sharply in many places, seasonal downstream consumption picked up somewhat. Slaughter volumes have gradually recovered in recent days, while livestock farmers have become more reluctant to sell and more determined to resist price cuts, supporting hog prices in stopping their decline and stabilizing.
Market data also show that the daily hog slaughter volume on the 11th day of the 9th month was 189460 head, an increase of 5.8% from 179090 head on the 30th day of the 10th month. As of the 9th day of the 11th month, the national average hog price was 8.52 yuan per kilogram. Hog prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term, and market expectations have improved somewhat compared with earlier.
Some institutions believe that, with winter disease outbreaks peaking and losses continuing, the reduction in hog inventories is shifting from “voluntary” to “forced.” Sector valuations are currently at historical lows, and an investment window has opened. However, there is usually a lag of around 10 months between changes in the inventory of breeding sows and a contraction in market hog shipments. This means that even if destocking has accelerated, a substantial contraction in supply is unlikely before the second quarter of 2027. Wanlian Securities judges that a turning point in hog prices may emerge in the fourth quarter of 2026, but also notes that the broad near-term trend of ample supply is unlikely to change.
In the short term, based on the number of newborn piglets and slaughter weights, and excluding the impact of disease, hog supply is expected to remain relatively stable through year-end. Attention can be paid to how seasonal changes in consumption support hog prices.