Up, up—the pig price has “taken off overnight,” and the market is seeing a “retaliatory” surge! Farmers have not seen such an encouraging market for a long time! Since the “golden September,” the peak season has failed to bring peak demand, leaving farmers facing a “slow, painful loss” as pig prices continued to decline. The quoted price for standard pigs fell from 11.09 yuan per kilogram to 8.52 yuan per kilogram. Pig prices fell below the “previous low,” reaching their lowest level since 10, with prices down by a cumulative 23.17% during this period. However, in the days since the start of winter, the live-pig market has shown signs of bottoming out. Support at the bottom of the price range has gradually strengthened, and after a brief period of price stagnation, the market has rebounded against the trend.
As of 11 month 14, the average domestic live-pig selling price monitored by institutions was 8.63 yuan per kilogram, up 0.09 yuan from the previous day. Pig prices have recovered to the “previous low” seen in the first half of the year. However, live-pig prices remain at a cyclical low, down about 26.8% from the same period last year! According to information from Mysteel, this week, before 5.5-6 months, the loss per head for pigs raised to market weight using purchased piglets was 233.12 yuan, while the loss per head for pigs bred and raised on the same farm was 383.86 yuan. Farming losses have deepened, and the market is strongly anticipating a price rise!
Currently, hog prices are mostly rising across the 28 key regions monitored in northern and southern China. In major regions, quotes for standard-weight hogs have risen by 0.05~0.2 yuan/kg. Feedback from the grassroots indicates that some large hog producers have raised their prices for marketing medium- and large-sized hogs by around 0.3~0.4 yuan. Market sentiment is gradually improving, and domestic hog prices are rebounding after falling excessively.
Among the lower-priced regions, Xinjiang currently has the lowest quote at 7.85 yuan/kg, while Guangdong has the highest at 8.55 yuan/kg. Hog quotes across northern and southern China are hovering at 8~9 yuan/kg. The north-south price inversion persists in many markets: Heilongjiang is quoted at 9 yuan/kg, Sichuan at 8.55 yuan/kg, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang at 8.9 yuan/kg. Regional price differences are limited, and a degree of price inversion remains in the market.
According to feedback from the grassroots, in the consumer market, among major cities, Beijing and Shanghai are seeing mixed trading activity. The quote for white carcasses at Beijing’s main wholesale markets has risen by around 0.1 yuan, while market buying and selling activity is average. At Xinfadi Market, white carcasses are quoted at around 5.1~6 yuan/jin. In Shanghai, the main quote for white carcasses is around 5.2~5.3 yuan/jin, with trading feedback generally on the weak side. At present, support from urban pork trading is average, but demand in the domestic market is gradually improving. In particular, temperatures have fallen recently, and colder weather is spreading further across northern China. Residents’ willingness to stock up for winter is strengthening, and meat demand is gradually improving as well. With beef and mutton prices high, pork is becoming more cost-effective for consumers. In addition, falling temperatures are increasing interest in consuming cured meat and sausages, improving downstream trading activity for white carcasses. As of now, the operating rate at sampled slaughterhouses has recovered to 33.68%, further strengthening marginal demand support, while average daily slaughter volumes are gradually increasing.
On the supply side, among major production regions in northern and southern China, large hog producers have reduced marketings in the Southwest and Northwest, while marketings have increased in East China and Northeast China. Marketing volumes from large-scale hog producers are relatively normal. However, given the heavy losses in hog farming and stronger resistance among producers to lowering prices, as the peak season for cured-meat production in southern China approaches, hog farms in the open market have become less willing to sell. Some producers are inclined to reduce volumes and raise prices. In Northeast China, the pace of hog purchases by slaughterhouses has slowed, and procurement has become slightly more difficult. Local large-scale hog producers have raised their marketing quotes; the same is true in East and Central China, where some producers are seeking to hold prices firm. Market expectations of rising prices are increasing, and market support is gradually strengthening.
Based on this analysis, guided by sentiment and supported by a seasonal recovery in demand, consumption capacity for market hogs has strengthened. Prices for medium and large hogs in China have recovered, the price spread between standard-weight and fattened hogs has widened slightly, and market sentiment in support of prices and reluctance to sell has intensified. Hog prices may be entering a phase of bottoming out and recovery! However, there is considerable market disagreement over whether hog prices will see a “sharp” rise this time!
After all, pressure on the supply side has not eased. This month, large-scale hog producers have been slow to market hogs, and supply pressure is still considerable in the middle and latter part of the month. In addition, the outlook for pork supply is ample, market hog weights are rising, and shipments of frozen pork are increasing, so a market rebound remains difficult! Pay close attention to changes in hog marketing by large-scale producers and in slaughterhouse operating rates in the coming period!