11 is nearing its midpoint. In China's livestock and poultry farming sector, as hog prices bottomed out at 8.52 yuan/kg, temperatures gradually fell after the Start of Winter, the weather turned progressively colder, and marginal demand support gradually improved. The domestic hog market saw a “sharp rebound after excessive declines”! In recent days, support at the bottom of hog prices has gradually strengthened, and the market has been “firing on all cylinders.” However, hog prices have not yet fully reversed the underlying “supply-demand imbalance,” and the rebound remains constrained by pressure from multiple factors. The market is cautiously optimistic about further price increases. Details are as follows:
According to monitoring data, as of 11/14, the nationwide average ex-farm price for lean-type crossbred pigs was 8.63 yuan/kg, up by 0.09 yuan. Hog prices were “bright red” in markets across the north and south, showing an unusual upward trend! However, compared with the same period last year, hog prices were still down by nearly 27%. Both supply and demand are facing a “double peak,” which may limit the extent of the hog price rebound!
By region, the national average hog price in the key monitored 28 regions across the north and south is close to the price in Henan, at 8.6 yuan/kg. Hog prices in the north and south are quoted at 7.85~9.55 yuan/kg! In traditional production and sales markets, current hog prices in northern regions—including Northeast China, North China, and Northwest China—are mostly higher. Prices in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning are quoted at 8.55~9 yuan; prices in Shanxi and Hebei are quoted at 8.45~8.75 yuan; and prices in Shaanxi and Gansu are quoted at 8.35~8.4 yuan. In southern markets, including Southwest, East China, Central China, and South China, current prices in Sichuan and Chongqing are quoted at 8.2~8.55 yuan; prices in the Shandong and Anhui markets are quoted at 8.8~8.9 yuan; prices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are quoted at 8.9 yuan; prices in Henan are quoted at 8.6 yuan; and prices in Guangdong and Guangxi are quoted at 8.6~9.55 yuan/kg!
Based on this analysis, on 11 month 14, pig prices rebounded, with the increase widening noticeably. Northern and southern regions across the country saw an “oversold rebound.” The factors supporting the rise in pig prices are analyzed as follows:
On the one hand, after the Start of Winter, cold air activity is frequent, and temperatures in many parts of both northern and southern China are gradually falling. The weather is gradually turning colder, and household consumption support is gradually strengthening! In addition, pork prices are currently low, offering good value for money. Support from meat demand is strengthening, and some northern residents are taking advantage of low prices to make sausages or cured meat, boosting market confidence!
On the other hand, with marginal support from demand improving and seasonal demand entering its peak period, market demand for medium and large pigs has strengthened! Previously, as farming losses deepened, independent producers and large-scale pig companies competitively sold medium and large pigs, while supplies of market-ready heavy pigs were at a stage where there was an incentive to “reduce volume and push up prices”! Meanwhile, with the domestic price spread between standard-weight and heavy pigs widening and the risk of holding back standard-weight pigs easing, some independent producers and large-scale pig companies have tried to push prices up!
Therefore, supported by marginal demand, prices for medium and large hogs strengthened first, stimulating a recovery in prices for standard-weight hogs. The domestic hog market has entered a phase of bottoming-out recovery! Moreover, with just over a month remaining until the peak southern curing season, market confidence in the outlook for hog prices may improve. In some regions, there may be opportunities for sporadic second-round fattening to enter the market, which could further support stronger hog prices. The hog market may be approaching a cyclical turning point!
However, rationally speaking, expectations of ample hog and pork supplies have not changed! After all, the average weight of hogs shipped has increased. This week, the average hog shipment weight rose to 125.95 kilograms, further strengthening pork supply. The average weight of slaughtered hogs also rose to 94.77 kilograms this week. In addition, recently, low-priced frozen pork stocks have been gradually entering the market, further increasing pork supply capacity! As for shipments, this month, large-scale hog producers in China have relatively high shipment plans, with their average daily shipments increasing by nearly 6% month over month. Although stronger prices for medium and large hogs have reduced the willingness of large-scale hog producers to ship standard-weight hogs, supply-side pressure remains considerable, which may limit the scope for a rebound in hog prices going forward!