11 month 12, domestic live pig market futures main contract prices rose again by 1.1%. However, spot market live pig priceslive pig pricesYet the overall trend weakened, breaking below the previous low once again.
Amid multiple pressures, including continued supply releases due to inertia, weak end-consumer demand, and high frozen-product inventories, this peak season has clearly underperformed, and the industry remains in a deep-loss troughing phase. Industry analysts point out that reductions in the breeding sow population take time to feed through; short-term hog supply is ample, demand from curing and pickling is weakening, and there may be limited room for hog prices to rebound.
The hog market continues to bottom out
Live pig futuresAs prices show signs of a bottom reversal, spot market prices remain weak.
According to data from Zhuochuang Information, temperatures gradually fell from the start of the fourth quarter, and demand for live pigs increased to some extent. However, despite the increase in demand, pig prices fell instead of rising. In 10 month, the national price of lean hogspricesAt 9.65 yuan per kilogram, down 9.64% month on month. In 11 month, pig prices continued to decline. As of 11 month 12, the national price of lean-type live hogspricesAt 8.56 yuan per kilogram, it broke below the previous low once again.
Shanghai Steel Union data also shows that, as of early 11 month, nationwideThree-way crossbred pigsThe average price of hogs sold fell to 8.6 yuan per kilogram to 8.8 yuan per kilogram, with prices in some regions dropping below 8 yuan per kilogram, hitting a nearly ten-year low. In mid-4 this year, hog prices accelerated their decline, and the industry has remained mired in deep losses for about 14 consecutive months.
“Recently, spot prices for live pigs have continued to weaken, showing the characteristics of a peak season that has failed to bring a peak and a weak market bottoming out. At present, this round ofpig cycleis in the stage with the greatest pressure at the bottom and the longest bottoming-out period.” said Qu Guona, a hog industry analyst at Shanghai Steelhome. Currentlyhog futuresThe market’s “strong expectations” stem from the certainty of capacity reduction. Sustained losses, combined with regulatory guidance, have brought the breeding sow population back to a reasonable range. The market generally expects supply and demand to gradually improve, and deferred contracts have consequently moved into contango.
The “weak reality,” however, stems from a lag of approximately 10 months in the transmission of changes in hog production capacity. The effects of the earlier reduction in breeding sow numbers have not yet been fully reflected in current market hog slaughter volumes. The spot market’s oversupply fundamentals have not reversed, leaving the futures market rebound unsupported by spot-market fundamentals and resulting in a temporary divergence between futures and spot prices.
Market demand remains insufficient during the peak season
Qu Guona believes that expectations for the traditional fourth-quarter peak season for stocking up on cured meats have not been met. The core contradiction is that supply continues to be released with strong momentum, while end-consumer demand is insufficient to absorb it.
On the supply side, the hogs currently being shipped for slaughter come from the inventory of the earlier high-capacity phase. Combined with the industry’s continuously rising PSY, this has created a situation in which “the breeding herd is shrinking, but meat supply is not declining.” Year-end concentrated shipments by large-scale pig farms further mean that market hog supplies are ample in the short term.
Demand provides limited support. Although cooler weather has boosted some demand for cured meat, overall pork consumption remains weak, and the substitution effect of poultry meat is evident. Meanwhile, frozen-product inventories at slaughterhouses are high. Once fresh meat prices rise slightly, frozen products will be released onto the market, putting pressure on hog prices. Peak-season consumption is unlikely to drive a sustained upward trend.
Zhuochuang Information analyst Yan Facheng also said that, due to factors such as ample production capacity in the earlier period, hog supply will remain ample in the fourth quarter. However, downstream demand has not provided enough support, and the pattern of supply exceeding demand for hogs remains unchanged, so hog prices may continue to fall.
According to Zhuochuang Information's monitored sample of breeding enterprises, the planned hog sales volume for 2026 increased by 3.52% month on month, with the increase significantly higher than in the previous two months. In 10, breeding enterprises did not meet their planned sales targets. The completion rate for the sales plan in 10 was 98.14%, showing signs of decline compared with the previous two months. Enterprises chose to postpone uncompleted plans until 11. In addition, due to the time of year, most enterprises chose to begin ramping up sales at year-end. Hogs grow faster in winter, and the pace of sales accelerated to some extent. These factors resulted in an overall pattern of hog supply exceeding demand in 11, putting some downward pressure on hog prices.
The seasonal rebound may be limited
Yan Facheng believes that, overall, large-scale farms released a concentrated surge in output in early 11 month. Curing and preserving activities have not yet begun, and, combined with the impact of high frozen-product inventories, the hogPig pricesMay continue to fall. As temperatures continue to drop in the latter part of the month, factors such as the gradual increase in slaughterhouse operating rates and the gradual start of curing activities may drive up pig prices somewhat. The overall average price for the month may remain at around 8.9 yuan per kilogram, with the average live pig price showing signs of a slight overall increase.
Qu Guona also believes that, in the short term, hog prices are highly likely to follow a pattern of first falling and then recovering modestly before the Spring Festival. The market in 11 month is expected to focus on searching for a bottom amid fluctuations. In 12 month, as demand for cured meat and Spring Festival stockpiling is released in a concentrated manner, hog prices may see a seasonal rebound after bottoming out. However, high inventories will continue to constrain the upside, limiting the extent of the rebound.
Looking ahead to the first half of next year, the effects of earlier reductions in the breeding sow population will gradually feed through to market hog supply. Supply and demand are expected to continue improving, and the industry may move out of deep losses and into a narrow profit range, with the center of hog prices rising moderately. However, confirming a genuine trend reversal in the cycle will still require further observation of the pace of capacity clearance.
Dadi Futures’ recent analysis indicates that after spot hog prices broke below their previous lows, producers showed some resistance and reluctance to sell. Demand following the cooldown led to a slight increase in slaughter volumes, and spot prices temporarily stopped falling. However, demand has not yet reached a stage of significant expansion. Hog weights are continuing to rise passively, and resolving the pressure from existing supply remains a challenge. Spot price gains are expected to be limited at this stage, with prices still needing to form a bottom. Futures prices appear to be trading in advance on expectations of concentrated stockpiling for peak-season demand. This needs to be verified against how market supply and demand align, so the potential for the current rebound should be viewed cautiously for now.
According to an analysis by Xinda Futures, official data show that at the end of 9全国能繁母猪约为3602万头，相较于六月底的数据又减少了178万头，月均减少60万头，按照这一下降速度，预计Turning point in the pig cycleThe turning point may occur in the second quarter of next year. At the same time, however, PSY is increasing year by year, and slaughter weights remain high. With both efficiency gains and rising weights at play, total pork output continues to grow despite a decline in the breeding sow inventory. The fundamentals of ample supply have not fundamentally reversed, and uncertainty remains over the medium to long term.
Amid multiple pressures, including continued supply releases due to inertia, weak end-consumer demand, and high frozen-product inventories, this peak season has clearly underperformed, and the industry remains in a deep-loss troughing phase. Industry analysts point out that reductions in the breeding sow population take time to feed through; short-term hog supply is ample, demand from curing and pickling is weakening, and there may be limited room for hog prices to rebound.
The hog market continues to bottom out
Live pig futuresAs prices show signs of a bottom reversal, spot market prices remain weak.
According to data from Zhuochuang Information, temperatures gradually fell from the start of the fourth quarter, and demand for live pigs increased to some extent. However, despite the increase in demand, pig prices fell instead of rising. In 10 month, the national price of lean hogspricesAt 9.65 yuan per kilogram, down 9.64% month on month. In 11 month, pig prices continued to decline. As of 11 month 12, the national price of lean-type live hogspricesAt 8.56 yuan per kilogram, it broke below the previous low once again.
Shanghai Steel Union data also shows that, as of early 11 month, nationwideThree-way crossbred pigsThe average price of hogs sold fell to 8.6 yuan per kilogram to 8.8 yuan per kilogram, with prices in some regions dropping below 8 yuan per kilogram, hitting a nearly ten-year low. In mid-4 this year, hog prices accelerated their decline, and the industry has remained mired in deep losses for about 14 consecutive months.
“Recently, spot prices for live pigs have continued to weaken, showing the characteristics of a peak season that has failed to bring a peak and a weak market bottoming out. At present, this round ofpig cycleis in the stage with the greatest pressure at the bottom and the longest bottoming-out period.” said Qu Guona, a hog industry analyst at Shanghai Steelhome. Currentlyhog futuresThe market’s “strong expectations” stem from the certainty of capacity reduction. Sustained losses, combined with regulatory guidance, have brought the breeding sow population back to a reasonable range. The market generally expects supply and demand to gradually improve, and deferred contracts have consequently moved into contango.
The “weak reality,” however, stems from a lag of approximately 10 months in the transmission of changes in hog production capacity. The effects of the earlier reduction in breeding sow numbers have not yet been fully reflected in current market hog slaughter volumes. The spot market’s oversupply fundamentals have not reversed, leaving the futures market rebound unsupported by spot-market fundamentals and resulting in a temporary divergence between futures and spot prices.
Market demand remains insufficient during the peak season
Qu Guona believes that expectations for the traditional fourth-quarter peak season for stocking up on cured meats have not been met. The core contradiction is that supply continues to be released with strong momentum, while end-consumer demand is insufficient to absorb it.
On the supply side, the hogs currently being shipped for slaughter come from the inventory of the earlier high-capacity phase. Combined with the industry’s continuously rising PSY, this has created a situation in which “the breeding herd is shrinking, but meat supply is not declining.” Year-end concentrated shipments by large-scale pig farms further mean that market hog supplies are ample in the short term.
Demand provides limited support. Although cooler weather has boosted some demand for cured meat, overall pork consumption remains weak, and the substitution effect of poultry meat is evident. Meanwhile, frozen-product inventories at slaughterhouses are high. Once fresh meat prices rise slightly, frozen products will be released onto the market, putting pressure on hog prices. Peak-season consumption is unlikely to drive a sustained upward trend.
Zhuochuang Information analyst Yan Facheng also said that, due to factors such as ample production capacity in the earlier period, hog supply will remain ample in the fourth quarter. However, downstream demand has not provided enough support, and the pattern of supply exceeding demand for hogs remains unchanged, so hog prices may continue to fall.
According to Zhuochuang Information's monitored sample of breeding enterprises, the planned hog sales volume for 2026 increased by 3.52% month on month, with the increase significantly higher than in the previous two months. In 10, breeding enterprises did not meet their planned sales targets. The completion rate for the sales plan in 10 was 98.14%, showing signs of decline compared with the previous two months. Enterprises chose to postpone uncompleted plans until 11. In addition, due to the time of year, most enterprises chose to begin ramping up sales at year-end. Hogs grow faster in winter, and the pace of sales accelerated to some extent. These factors resulted in an overall pattern of hog supply exceeding demand in 11, putting some downward pressure on hog prices.
The seasonal rebound may be limited
Yan Facheng believes that, overall, large-scale farms released a concentrated surge in output in early 11 month. Curing and preserving activities have not yet begun, and, combined with the impact of high frozen-product inventories, the hogPig pricesMay continue to fall. As temperatures continue to drop in the latter part of the month, factors such as the gradual increase in slaughterhouse operating rates and the gradual start of curing activities may drive up pig prices somewhat. The overall average price for the month may remain at around 8.9 yuan per kilogram, with the average live pig price showing signs of a slight overall increase.
Qu Guona also believes that, in the short term, hog prices are highly likely to follow a pattern of first falling and then recovering modestly before the Spring Festival. The market in 11 month is expected to focus on searching for a bottom amid fluctuations. In 12 month, as demand for cured meat and Spring Festival stockpiling is released in a concentrated manner, hog prices may see a seasonal rebound after bottoming out. However, high inventories will continue to constrain the upside, limiting the extent of the rebound.
Looking ahead to the first half of next year, the effects of earlier reductions in the breeding sow population will gradually feed through to market hog supply. Supply and demand are expected to continue improving, and the industry may move out of deep losses and into a narrow profit range, with the center of hog prices rising moderately. However, confirming a genuine trend reversal in the cycle will still require further observation of the pace of capacity clearance.
Dadi Futures’ recent analysis indicates that after spot hog prices broke below their previous lows, producers showed some resistance and reluctance to sell. Demand following the cooldown led to a slight increase in slaughter volumes, and spot prices temporarily stopped falling. However, demand has not yet reached a stage of significant expansion. Hog weights are continuing to rise passively, and resolving the pressure from existing supply remains a challenge. Spot price gains are expected to be limited at this stage, with prices still needing to form a bottom. Futures prices appear to be trading in advance on expectations of concentrated stockpiling for peak-season demand. This needs to be verified against how market supply and demand align, so the potential for the current rebound should be viewed cautiously for now.
According to an analysis by Xinda Futures, official data show that at the end of 9全国能繁母猪约为3602万头，相较于六月底的数据又减少了178万头，月均减少60万头，按照这一下降速度，预计Turning point in the pig cycleThe turning point may occur in the second quarter of next year. At the same time, however, PSY is increasing year by year, and slaughter weights remain high. With both efficiency gains and rising weights at play, total pork output continues to grow despite a decline in the breeding sow inventory. The fundamentals of ample supply have not fundamentally reversed, and uncertainty remains over the medium to long term.