As the month of 11 moves into its middle period, following the Start of Winter solar term, the domestic hog market saw pig prices fall more than expected. After the price of standard pigs hit a new low in nearly 10 years, the market gradually began to stabilize at a bottom. Although many pressures still weigh on a rebound in pig prices, the prevailing view is that there is little room for further declines. The market may gradually enter a “bottoming-out recovery” phase, with pig prices expected to recover moderately. Details of the analysis follow:
According to monitoring by institutions, on 2026 11 12, the nationalthree-way crossbreed lean-type pig average ex-farm price was 8.54 yuan per kilogram, up 0.01 yuan from the previous day. Pig prices surged, and the market showed a “light at the end of the tunnel” trend. However, prices remain at a low point for this period, down 28.65% year on year. At the average corn price of 1.1 yuan per jin in Linchi, the currenthog-to-corn ratio is around 3.88:1, and breeding losses remain substantial. According to institutional research, major pig companies above the designated scale currently incur an average loss of around 386 yuan per hog sold under the farrow-to-finish model. The full cost of production for some smallholder farms may reach 14 yuan per kilogram. Based on an average liveweight of 125.95 kilograms per hog sold during this period, the loss per hog may exceed 650 yuan. The sector remains in a period of deep losses.
By region, across the northern and southern markets nationwide, among the 28 key monitored regions, hog prices showed a pattern of “more rises than falls.” Average hog prices rose by 0.05~0.2 yuan in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangxi, Hubei, Henan, Beijing and Tianjin, Hebei, Xinjiang, and Gansu. In Fujian, Hunan, Guangdong and Guangxi, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Liaoning, prices in some areas fell by 0.05~0.1 yuan. The market showed a generally steady to stronger trend. Across the northern and southern markets, hog prices were 7.65~9.8 yuan/kg, with no significant regional price differences. Heilongjiang prices were 8.5~8.85 yuan, prices in the southwestern market were 7.9~8.75 yuan, while prices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 8.65~8.7 yuan/kg……
Currently, hog prices have stopped falling and are recovering, with prices generally stable to slightly stronger. However, bullish sentiment has strengthened somewhat and bearish sentiment has eased. After a brief period of narrow-range fluctuations, the market may usher in the start of a seasonal rise!
In my view, the main factors supporting higher hog prices are roughly as follows:
On the one hand, marginal demand support is gradually improving. As of now, the operating rate of the sampled slaughterhouses has risen to around 33.04%, and support from consumption is gradually strengthening. After the Start of Winter, the weather turns colder and residents’ demand for winter provisions continues to grow. In northern regions, pork buying and selling in the domestic market has strengthened, and household demand has recovered. In addition, pork’s value for money has increased significantly. Low pork prices have boosted consumer willingness, and substitution in the market has become more common. After all, beef and mutton prices are relatively high, strengthening the willingness to substitute!
On the other hand, 10月 is moving into its middle period, and the traditional curing season is drawing closer, strengthening market confidence in the outlook for hog prices. In northern regions, buying and selling of medium and large hogs has picked up. Some large-scale hog producers have increasingly suspended sales of small and medium-sized standard hogs, easing pressure on the supply side somewhat. Some independent hog farms have become more resistant to selling at low prices, easing the pressure of excess supply to some extent!
However, although market sentiment has recovered somewhat and marginal demand is improving slowly, with buying and selling of medium and large hogs also showing some improvement, supply pressure is still considerable in 11月份, in theory. Large-scale hog producers’ average daily planned sales for this month are up nearly 6% month on month. In addition, during the month, active willingness to sell among independent producers and secondary-fattening operators meant that large-scale producers generally did not meet their sales plans. Sales pressure on large-scale hog producers will remain considerable in the middle and latter parts of the month. Alongside this, average hog slaughter weight continues to rise, further strengthening pork supply capacity, and frozen pork is also being released onto the market. This may curb the pace of demand recovery and put downward pressure on hog prices!
Based on this analysis, amid the supply-demand tug-of-war, the hog market is likely to remain in a bottom-range stalemate for the time being. However, the prevailing view is that hog prices may be forming a bottom, and the market may recover moderately in the period ahead. Nevertheless, supply-side pressure makes a sharp rebound unlikely. Pay close attention to changes in the pace of market buying and selling!
According to monitoring by institutions, on 2026 11 12, the nationalthree-way crossbreed lean-type pig average ex-farm price was 8.54 yuan per kilogram, up 0.01 yuan from the previous day. Pig prices surged, and the market showed a “light at the end of the tunnel” trend. However, prices remain at a low point for this period, down 28.65% year on year. At the average corn price of 1.1 yuan per jin in Linchi, the currenthog-to-corn ratio is around 3.88:1, and breeding losses remain substantial. According to institutional research, major pig companies above the designated scale currently incur an average loss of around 386 yuan per hog sold under the farrow-to-finish model. The full cost of production for some smallholder farms may reach 14 yuan per kilogram. Based on an average liveweight of 125.95 kilograms per hog sold during this period, the loss per hog may exceed 650 yuan. The sector remains in a period of deep losses.
By region, across the northern and southern markets nationwide, among the 28 key monitored regions, hog prices showed a pattern of “more rises than falls.” Average hog prices rose by 0.05~0.2 yuan in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangxi, Hubei, Henan, Beijing and Tianjin, Hebei, Xinjiang, and Gansu. In Fujian, Hunan, Guangdong and Guangxi, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Liaoning, prices in some areas fell by 0.05~0.1 yuan. The market showed a generally steady to stronger trend. Across the northern and southern markets, hog prices were 7.65~9.8 yuan/kg, with no significant regional price differences. Heilongjiang prices were 8.5~8.85 yuan, prices in the southwestern market were 7.9~8.75 yuan, while prices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 8.65~8.7 yuan/kg……
Currently, hog prices have stopped falling and are recovering, with prices generally stable to slightly stronger. However, bullish sentiment has strengthened somewhat and bearish sentiment has eased. After a brief period of narrow-range fluctuations, the market may usher in the start of a seasonal rise!
In my view, the main factors supporting higher hog prices are roughly as follows:
On the one hand, marginal demand support is gradually improving. As of now, the operating rate of the sampled slaughterhouses has risen to around 33.04%, and support from consumption is gradually strengthening. After the Start of Winter, the weather turns colder and residents’ demand for winter provisions continues to grow. In northern regions, pork buying and selling in the domestic market has strengthened, and household demand has recovered. In addition, pork’s value for money has increased significantly. Low pork prices have boosted consumer willingness, and substitution in the market has become more common. After all, beef and mutton prices are relatively high, strengthening the willingness to substitute!
On the other hand, 10月 is moving into its middle period, and the traditional curing season is drawing closer, strengthening market confidence in the outlook for hog prices. In northern regions, buying and selling of medium and large hogs has picked up. Some large-scale hog producers have increasingly suspended sales of small and medium-sized standard hogs, easing pressure on the supply side somewhat. Some independent hog farms have become more resistant to selling at low prices, easing the pressure of excess supply to some extent!
However, although market sentiment has recovered somewhat and marginal demand is improving slowly, with buying and selling of medium and large hogs also showing some improvement, supply pressure is still considerable in 11月份, in theory. Large-scale hog producers’ average daily planned sales for this month are up nearly 6% month on month. In addition, during the month, active willingness to sell among independent producers and secondary-fattening operators meant that large-scale producers generally did not meet their sales plans. Sales pressure on large-scale hog producers will remain considerable in the middle and latter parts of the month. Alongside this, average hog slaughter weight continues to rise, further strengthening pork supply capacity, and frozen pork is also being released onto the market. This may curb the pace of demand recovery and put downward pressure on hog prices!
Based on this analysis, amid the supply-demand tug-of-war, the hog market is likely to remain in a bottom-range stalemate for the time being. However, the prevailing view is that hog prices may be forming a bottom, and the market may recover moderately in the period ahead. Nevertheless, supply-side pressure makes a sharp rebound unlikely. Pay close attention to changes in the pace of market buying and selling!