According to the livestock product and feed market price monitoring data for the 11 month, 1 week released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the national average price of live pigs was 10.11 yuan/kg, down 2.9% from the previous week; the national average price of piglets was 17.40 yuan/kg, down 2.7% from the previous week. The prices of live pigs and piglets have both sent a signal of decline, further increasing the industry's losses.
Looking at the specific breakdown, the current downturn remains widespread. During the week, live pig prices fell in all 30 monitored provinces nationwide, and piglet prices fell in all 28 monitored provinces, with only slight increases in a few areas. Over the same period, the national average pork price was 20.11 yuan/kg, down 1.2% from the previous week. Pork prices fell in 29 provinces, clearly reflecting weak consumer demand, which is also one of the key factors currently weighing on continued declines in hog prices.
The simultaneous decline in piglet prices is a market signal that warrants particular attention. Piglet prices reflect the willingness of livestock producers to restock. With hog prices causing sustained, deep losses, farmers are very cautious about restocking with piglets, and enthusiasm for purchasing piglets for fattening is low, directly weighing on piglet prices. To date, piglet prices have fallen for 15 consecutive weeks, also confirming that the industry has long held a cautious outlook for the market. Most are choosing to wait and see, unwilling to restock with piglets lightly.
Based on the latest supply and demand situation, “strong supply and weak demand” has consistently been the central theme weighing on the market. On the supply side, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, national pork production reached 2026 ten thousand metric tons in the first three quarters of 4508. Combined with pork production in the fourth quarter in previous years, national pork production this year is expected to reach 6000 ten thousand metric tons, a historic high. Meanwhile, consumption has picked up slowly and weakly this year, with a marked divergence between the north and south. So far, only cooler weather in the north has brought some additional consumption; orders for curing and processing in the south are below the same period in previous years. In addition, frozen pork inventories remain high, continuing to weigh on spot prices.
With this supply-demand mismatch, prices for live pigs and piglets have fallen in tandem, and losses in pig farming have continued to deepen. According to the latest monitoring by the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, losses in pig farming under the current piglet-fattening model have widened again to 383.04 yuan per head. Heavy losses directly dampen market willingness to restock, leaving the piglet market subdued and further triggering a chain reaction: “falling prices → reluctance to restock → a slower outlook for future supply.”
In the short term, the market is unlikely to see a strong reversal driven by seasonal consumption. Prices are likely to remain weak and volatile, and small rebounds in some areas are unlikely to develop into a sustained uptrend.