As 11 moves into mid-month, following the Start of Winter solar term, the domestic live hog market saw prices for standard pigs fall more than expected, hitting a new low not seen in nearly 10 years. The market has gradually formed a “bottoming out” pattern, with prices ceasing to fall. Although hog prices still face considerable pressure when attempting to rebound, the prevailing view is that there is little room for further declines, and the market may gradually enter a “bottom repair” phase, with prices expected to recover moderately. Details are as follows:
According to institutional monitoring, on 2026 11, 12, the national average farmgate price for lean-type live pigs of the three-way crossbreed was 8.54 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan from the previous day. Hog prices surged, and the market presented a “silver lining” outlook. However, prices remain at a low point for this period, down 28.65% year on year. In addition, based on the average corn price in Linchi of 1.1 yuan/jin, the current hog-to-grain price ratio is around 3.88:1, and breeding losses remain substantial. According to institutional research, major pig enterprises above designated size are currently losing around 386 yuan per pig sold from self-breeding and self-rearing. The full cost for some smallholder farms may reach 14 yuan/kg. Based on an average liveweight of 125.95 kg per pig sold during this period, the loss per pig may exceed 650 yuan, meaning breeding remains in a phase of severe losses.
By region, across the north and south of the country, hog prices in the 28 key monitored regions mostly rose, with more increases than decreases. Average hog prices rose by 0.05~0.2 yuan in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangxi, Hubei, Henan, Beijing and Tianjin, Hebei, Xinjiang, and Gansu. In some areas of Fujian, Hunan, Guangdong and Guangxi, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Liaoning, quoted prices fell by 0.05~0.1 yuan. The market was generally steady with a slight upward bias. Across the north and south, hog prices were 7.65~9.8 yuan/kg, with no notable regional price differences. Heilongjiang quoted prices at 8.5~8.85 yuan, the Southwest market at 7.9~8.75 yuan, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang at 8.65~8.7 yuan/kg……
Hog prices have now stopped falling and are recovering, with prices generally steady to slightly stronger. Market expectations of rising prices have strengthened somewhat, while bearish sentiment has eased. After a brief period of narrow-range fluctuation, the market may usher in the start of a seasonal price increase!
In my view, the main factors supporting higher hog prices are as follows:
On the one hand, marginal support from demand is gradually improving. As of now, the operating rate at sampled slaughterhouses has risen to around 33.04%, and support from consumption is gradually strengthening. After the Start of Winter, the weather turns colder and residents’ demand for winter provisions increases. In northern areas, domestic pork sales and purchasing activity have strengthened, and household demand is recovering. Pork has also become much better value for money: lower pork prices have boosted consumer willingness to buy, and substitution in the market has become more common. After all, beef and lamb prices are relatively high, strengthening the willingness to switch to pork!
On the other hand, as the month of 10 moves into its middle period, the traditional curing season draws closer, and confidence in the hog price outlook has strengthened somewhat! In northern regions, trading activity in medium and large hogs has picked up. Some group pig companies have increasingly suspended sales of small and medium-sized standard hogs, slightly easing pressure on the supply side. Some small-scale farms have become more resistant to selling hogs at low prices, easing the pressure of excess supply somewhat!
However, although market sentiment has recovered slightly and demand is improving gradually at the margin, and trading activity in medium and large hogs has improved somewhat, the overall outlook suggests that hog supply pressure will remain considerable in 11! Group pig companies’ average daily planned marketings this month are up nearly 6% month on month. Moreover, during the month, active sales by independent producers and in secondary fattening have meant that group pig companies have generally fallen short of their marketing plans. In the middle and latter parts of the month, large-scale pig companies will still face considerable pressure to market hogs! In addition, the average weight of hogs marketed continues to rise, further strengthening pork supply capacity. Frozen pork is also being released onto the market in succession, which may slow the recovery in demand and put downward pressure on hog prices!
Based on this analysis, amid the supply-demand tug-of-war, the hog market is likely to remain in a bottoming-out phase for now. However, the prevailing view is that hog prices may be forming a bottom, and the market may see a gradual recovery ahead! Nevertheless, given pressure on the supply side, there is little chance of a sharp rebound. Close attention should be paid to changes in the pace of market trading!