As 11 moves into mid-month, domestic hog prices have recently come under pressure and fallen. Prices during the traditional seasonal peak have performed below expectations! In the traditional “Golden September and Silver October” months, the peak season has failed to boost hog prices, and the price center has gradually shifted downward. After entering 11月, the price center continued to move down. After quotes for standard pigs fell below 9元/公斤, prices continued to retreat. Previously,three-way crossbredquotes for standard pigs fell to 8.52元/公斤, setting a new low in nearly 10 years. The market has seen an “ultra-rational” downward trend! However, hog prices have stopped falling over the past two days. Whether the market can reverse course depends on how the supply and demand balance develops going forward!
According to data monitoring, on 11 11, the nationalthree-way crossbredaverage ex-farm price for lean-type standard pigs was 8.53元/公斤, unchanged from the previous day. Hog prices were down nearly 29.2% year on year and remain at their lowest level in nearly 10 years. Losses for producers have deepened, and mainstream piglets, standard pigs, and medium-to-large pigs are all under pressure. The market is showing a “bottoming out” pattern!
Regionally, across the 7 key production areas monitored nationwide in the north and south, the hog market was broadly stable with minor fluctuations, and prices mainly seesawed between gains and losses! Among them, quotations in Central China were relatively firm, while the northern market was mainly flat to higher. However, hog prices continued to fluctuate downward in many parts of East China, South China, and Southwest China! In traditional production and sales markets, quotations in Hei, Ji, and Liao currently stand at 8.5~8.85 yuan/kg, while quotations in Sichuan and Chongqing in the Southwest are 8.1~8.4 yuan. Production and sales markets are still facing a certain degree of price inversion!
In terms of demand, in the country's major consumer cities of Beijing and Shanghai, white pork carcass quotations in Beijing were mostly steady, with average market trading feedback. The mainstream white pork carcass quotation in Shanghai was around 11~11.2 yuan/kg, with average market trading and slightly lower arrivals! Domestic pork purchasing and sales have now entered a seasonal peak period. In particular, with the arrival of the Start of Winter solar term, many parts of the north experienced winter-like conditions overnight; temperatures dropped sharply and the weather gradually turned colder. Seasonal pork consumption is also set to enter its peak period. Recently, domestic market demand has improved at rural fairs, while willingness to trade white pork carcasses has increased and slaughterhouse order volumes have risen. The operating rate of sampled slaughterhouses has recovered to around 33.04%, strengthening demand support!
In terms of supply, among major leading hog producers across the north and south of the country, yesterday, corporate hog producers reduced shipments in many parts of East China, Central China, Northwest China, and Southwest China, while producers in the Northeast increased shipments! Regarding the ease of slaughterhouse procurement, in the Northeast market, producers showed average willingness to ship, slaughterhouses faced relatively little difficulty in procurement, and they were generally able to maintain their planned procurement volumes. In East China and Central China, the pace of hog arrivals at slaughterhouses was average and procurement was relatively smooth. In southern markets, including Southwest and South China, corporate hog producers' shipment plans were generally underfulfilled, and slaughterhouses made more frequent attempts to push prices down!
At present, producers differ in their shipment pace, and procurement difficulty varies among regional slaughterhouses, leaving the market mainly range-bound! According to institutional research, this month, leading and larger hog producers have daily average shipment plans nearly 6% higher for the month. During the month, the market has seen accelerated culling of low-priced sows, while second-stage fattening operators and smallholder farms have shown stronger willingness to sell to realize cash. Shipments from major leading hog producers have been gradual, and supply-side pressure is still considerable in the middle and latter parts of the month, as production capacity continues to be released at a high level!
Based on this analysis, the hog market currently faces both bullish and bearish factors. Supply-side pressure remains considerable, but seasonal demand is gradually recovering. Amid the tug-of-war between supply and demand, the hog market may gradually form a bottom! In particular, the seasonal peak in demand is approaching. As temperatures fall further, pork consumption is expected to increase further, and hog prices may gradually recover. However, given the ample market supply and rising average shipment weights, the supply side still faces considerable pressure, which may limit the extent of a hog-price rebound during the peak season for cured meat production!
What do you think about this? Hog prices may briefly continue to move sideways near the bottom, with the market mainly seesawing in a weak but steady range! Do you think hog prices could surge sharply in the period ahead?
According to data monitoring, on 11 11, the nationalthree-way crossbredaverage ex-farm price for lean-type standard pigs was 8.53元/公斤, unchanged from the previous day. Hog prices were down nearly 29.2% year on year and remain at their lowest level in nearly 10 years. Losses for producers have deepened, and mainstream piglets, standard pigs, and medium-to-large pigs are all under pressure. The market is showing a “bottoming out” pattern!
Regionally, across the 7 key production areas monitored nationwide in the north and south, the hog market was broadly stable with minor fluctuations, and prices mainly seesawed between gains and losses! Among them, quotations in Central China were relatively firm, while the northern market was mainly flat to higher. However, hog prices continued to fluctuate downward in many parts of East China, South China, and Southwest China! In traditional production and sales markets, quotations in Hei, Ji, and Liao currently stand at 8.5~8.85 yuan/kg, while quotations in Sichuan and Chongqing in the Southwest are 8.1~8.4 yuan. Production and sales markets are still facing a certain degree of price inversion!
In terms of demand, in the country's major consumer cities of Beijing and Shanghai, white pork carcass quotations in Beijing were mostly steady, with average market trading feedback. The mainstream white pork carcass quotation in Shanghai was around 11~11.2 yuan/kg, with average market trading and slightly lower arrivals! Domestic pork purchasing and sales have now entered a seasonal peak period. In particular, with the arrival of the Start of Winter solar term, many parts of the north experienced winter-like conditions overnight; temperatures dropped sharply and the weather gradually turned colder. Seasonal pork consumption is also set to enter its peak period. Recently, domestic market demand has improved at rural fairs, while willingness to trade white pork carcasses has increased and slaughterhouse order volumes have risen. The operating rate of sampled slaughterhouses has recovered to around 33.04%, strengthening demand support!
In terms of supply, among major leading hog producers across the north and south of the country, yesterday, corporate hog producers reduced shipments in many parts of East China, Central China, Northwest China, and Southwest China, while producers in the Northeast increased shipments! Regarding the ease of slaughterhouse procurement, in the Northeast market, producers showed average willingness to ship, slaughterhouses faced relatively little difficulty in procurement, and they were generally able to maintain their planned procurement volumes. In East China and Central China, the pace of hog arrivals at slaughterhouses was average and procurement was relatively smooth. In southern markets, including Southwest and South China, corporate hog producers' shipment plans were generally underfulfilled, and slaughterhouses made more frequent attempts to push prices down!
At present, producers differ in their shipment pace, and procurement difficulty varies among regional slaughterhouses, leaving the market mainly range-bound! According to institutional research, this month, leading and larger hog producers have daily average shipment plans nearly 6% higher for the month. During the month, the market has seen accelerated culling of low-priced sows, while second-stage fattening operators and smallholder farms have shown stronger willingness to sell to realize cash. Shipments from major leading hog producers have been gradual, and supply-side pressure is still considerable in the middle and latter parts of the month, as production capacity continues to be released at a high level!
Based on this analysis, the hog market currently faces both bullish and bearish factors. Supply-side pressure remains considerable, but seasonal demand is gradually recovering. Amid the tug-of-war between supply and demand, the hog market may gradually form a bottom! In particular, the seasonal peak in demand is approaching. As temperatures fall further, pork consumption is expected to increase further, and hog prices may gradually recover. However, given the ample market supply and rising average shipment weights, the supply side still faces considerable pressure, which may limit the extent of a hog-price rebound during the peak season for cured meat production!
What do you think about this? Hog prices may briefly continue to move sideways near the bottom, with the market mainly seesawing in a weak but steady range! Do you think hog prices could surge sharply in the period ahead?