Time flies, and the month of 11 is moving into its middle days. Recently, pressure on the supply side of China’s hog market has been difficult to fully ease, while demand-side follow-up has been modest. The supply-demand balance has been difficult to improve, and, driven by market sentiment, hog prices have come under pressure and moved lower, with domestic hog quotations adjusting weakly. In particular, after live hog quotations fell below 9 yuan/kg in month 11, prices continued to move lower, deepening losses for farmers. Quotations for standard-weight hogs hit a bottom of 8.52 yuan/kg, and hog prices reached their lowest level in nearly 10 years. Fortunately, as the pace of supply and demand has shifted, the decline in hog prices has “hit the brakes.” So, can the “sharp rebound after an excessive drop” scenario now materialize for the hog market? An analysis follows:
According to institutional data, as of 11 in month 11, nationwidethree-way crossbreedlean-meathog prices, the average ex-farm price stabilized at 8.53 yuan/kg, and hog prices were in a standoff. Compared with 12.04 yuan/kg at the same time last year, hog prices were down 29.15%, leaving them at a cyclical “bottom.”
By region, among the 28 key areas monitored nationwide across the north and south, the national average live hog price was close to that in Guangxi and Jiangxi, at 8.55 yuan/kg, with live hog quotes ranging from 7.6 to 9.9 yuan/kg. Xinjiang had the lowest prices, while Guangdong had the highest. Prices rose by 0.05 to 0.35 yuan/kg in Jiangxi, Hubei, Henan, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, and Shaanxi. Prices fell by 0.05 to 0.1 yuan/kg in Shanghai, Anhui, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, Hunan, the two Guangxi/Guangdong regions, Hainan, Yunnan, and Guizhou.
In the northern market, quotes in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning have now risen to 8.5–8.85 yuan; quotes in Shanxi and Hebei are 8.5–8.65 yuan, while those in Shaanxi and Gansu are 8.1–8.2 yuan/kg. In the southern market, quotes in Sichuan and Chongqing are 8.1–8.4 yuan, and those in Yunnan and Guizhou are 7.9–8.75 yuan. Quotes in Shandong and Anhui are 8.4–8.6 yuan, while those in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 8.45–8.5 yuan. Henan quotes are 8.45 yuan, and those in the two Guangxi/Guangdong regions are 8.55–9.9 yuan/kg.
Overall, on the 11th day of month 11, the domestic live hog market was mainly stable, with only minor fluctuations. Market conditions were slightly firmer in many northern areas, while the southern market remained weak. The market was at an impasse, with both bullish and bearish sentiment present.
On the supply side, pressure remains considerable. After all, recently, domestically,piglet marketremained sluggish, with piglets in many areas weighing 7 kgpigpricesFalling to below 80 yuan per head, professional piglet farming is suffering significant losses. The accelerated reduction and culling of breeding sows in the market remains widespread, and the increased supply of low-priced sows is further intensifying pressure on the market supply of commercial pigs!
Moreover, temperatures have fluctuated considerably recently. Since the Start of Winter, cold air has been active frequently, and pig farms in many areas have experiencedpig diseaseoutbreaks! In addition, according to institutional research, this month, planned market hog shipments by large-scale pig enterprises increased month on month. The planned shipments of 173 sample pig enterprises totaled 1519.67 ten thousand head, up 2.56% month on month, further boosting supply capacity! In particular, the average weight of market hogs at shipment has risen recently, further strengthening supply capacity. Production capacity remains high, putting downward pressure on pig prices!
On the demand side, temperatures have fallen since the Start of Winter. In recent days, demand has received somewhat greater marginal support due to the Cold Clothes Festival and the Start of Winter. Slaughterhouse orders have increased, and operating rates have edged up! Also, just over a month remains until the southern regions’ peak period for concentrated meat curing. Expectations for demand have gradually improved, support from the buying and selling of fresh carcasses has strengthened, and households are more willing to consume, with consumption support also gradually strengthening!
Based on this analysis, the current supply of live pigs is ample, but marginal demand support is also improving slowly. With both supply and demand increasing, market sentiment has improved somewhat! The live pig market may be forming a bottom. As demand recovers further, the price center may rebound from the bottom. However, strong pressure on the supply side may limit the scope for a market rebound, and expectations of a “sharp surge after overshooting to the downside” are lacking in the live pig market!
Going forward, watch for changes in the pace of market buying and selling, particularly changes in shipment pace among large pig enterprises and in slaughterhouse operating rates!
According to institutional data, as of 11 in month 11, nationwidethree-way crossbreedlean-meathog prices, the average ex-farm price stabilized at 8.53 yuan/kg, and hog prices were in a standoff. Compared with 12.04 yuan/kg at the same time last year, hog prices were down 29.15%, leaving them at a cyclical “bottom.”
By region, among the 28 key areas monitored nationwide across the north and south, the national average live hog price was close to that in Guangxi and Jiangxi, at 8.55 yuan/kg, with live hog quotes ranging from 7.6 to 9.9 yuan/kg. Xinjiang had the lowest prices, while Guangdong had the highest. Prices rose by 0.05 to 0.35 yuan/kg in Jiangxi, Hubei, Henan, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, and Shaanxi. Prices fell by 0.05 to 0.1 yuan/kg in Shanghai, Anhui, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, Hunan, the two Guangxi/Guangdong regions, Hainan, Yunnan, and Guizhou.
In the northern market, quotes in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning have now risen to 8.5–8.85 yuan; quotes in Shanxi and Hebei are 8.5–8.65 yuan, while those in Shaanxi and Gansu are 8.1–8.2 yuan/kg. In the southern market, quotes in Sichuan and Chongqing are 8.1–8.4 yuan, and those in Yunnan and Guizhou are 7.9–8.75 yuan. Quotes in Shandong and Anhui are 8.4–8.6 yuan, while those in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 8.45–8.5 yuan. Henan quotes are 8.45 yuan, and those in the two Guangxi/Guangdong regions are 8.55–9.9 yuan/kg.
Overall, on the 11th day of month 11, the domestic live hog market was mainly stable, with only minor fluctuations. Market conditions were slightly firmer in many northern areas, while the southern market remained weak. The market was at an impasse, with both bullish and bearish sentiment present.
On the supply side, pressure remains considerable. After all, recently, domestically,piglet marketremained sluggish, with piglets in many areas weighing 7 kgpigpricesFalling to below 80 yuan per head, professional piglet farming is suffering significant losses. The accelerated reduction and culling of breeding sows in the market remains widespread, and the increased supply of low-priced sows is further intensifying pressure on the market supply of commercial pigs!
Moreover, temperatures have fluctuated considerably recently. Since the Start of Winter, cold air has been active frequently, and pig farms in many areas have experiencedpig diseaseoutbreaks! In addition, according to institutional research, this month, planned market hog shipments by large-scale pig enterprises increased month on month. The planned shipments of 173 sample pig enterprises totaled 1519.67 ten thousand head, up 2.56% month on month, further boosting supply capacity! In particular, the average weight of market hogs at shipment has risen recently, further strengthening supply capacity. Production capacity remains high, putting downward pressure on pig prices!
On the demand side, temperatures have fallen since the Start of Winter. In recent days, demand has received somewhat greater marginal support due to the Cold Clothes Festival and the Start of Winter. Slaughterhouse orders have increased, and operating rates have edged up! Also, just over a month remains until the southern regions’ peak period for concentrated meat curing. Expectations for demand have gradually improved, support from the buying and selling of fresh carcasses has strengthened, and households are more willing to consume, with consumption support also gradually strengthening!
Based on this analysis, the current supply of live pigs is ample, but marginal demand support is also improving slowly. With both supply and demand increasing, market sentiment has improved somewhat! The live pig market may be forming a bottom. As demand recovers further, the price center may rebound from the bottom. However, strong pressure on the supply side may limit the scope for a market rebound, and expectations of a “sharp surge after overshooting to the downside” are lacking in the live pig market!
Going forward, watch for changes in the pace of market buying and selling, particularly changes in shipment pace among large pig enterprises and in slaughterhouse operating rates!