According to monitoring data from Zhu Haoduo, the national average price of live pigs of the three-way crossbred type was 8.60 yuan/kg on 2026-11-11, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day. Live pig prices continued to decline, and industry losses continued to deepen. The latest data from the National Development and Reform Commission’s Price Monitoring Center show that the national hog-to-grain ratio fell to 4.07 on 11-4, far below the level-one warning threshold of 5:1. Producers are facing deep losses and urgently hope that pig prices will stop falling and rebound.
From a fundamentals perspective, the continued weakness in pig prices is rooted in stronger supply and weaker demand. Hog production capacity is being released at a relatively rapid pace, while end-market consumption is too weak to absorb the supply. The latest data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs show that in the 11 month, week 1, the national live hog price was 10.11 yuan/kg, down 2.9% week on week; the price of pork at farmers’ markets was 20.11 yuan/kg, down 1.2% week on week; and the national average wholesale price of pork was 15.01 yuan/kg, down 3.1% week on week. Experts analyzing the market said that pork consumption had not yet strengthened seasonally last week, sales of chilled carcasses were moving slowly, and market supply remained ample, with prices for both live pigs and pork declining.
In response to the prolonged market slump, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs experts forecast that pig and pork prices will fluctuate slightly in the new week. This outlook is also in line with that of industry organizations. On the one hand, the momentum of hog marketings resulting from earlier improvements in breeding sow productivity remains, and large-scale pig farms have stable marketing plans, with no obvious reduction in the number of pigs being marketed. On the other hand, as the weather turns colder in the north, seasonal pork consumption is gradually picking up, but the south remains sluggish. Overall, the increase in consumption is limited and cannot offset the ample supply of pigs. Pig prices are showing only localized rebounds, with no basis for a broad-based rise.
At the regulatory level, although the current pig-to-grain price ratio is in the Level One warning range, the frozen pork purchasing and storage plan can be activated at any time, sending a signal of support. However, it is important to recognize objectively that purchasing and storage are mainly intended to stabilize expectations. Given the limited volume, even if purchasing and storage are initiated, they are unlikely to directly drive a sustained rise in pig prices.
From the consumption side, the upcoming traditional pork consumption periods around winter solstice and New Year's Day will be key points to watch in this market trend. If holiday stockpiling falls short of expectations, pig prices are likely to continue bottoming out at low levels. If end-market sales recover noticeably, combined with some farmers proactively limiting supply, a temporary rebound may occur in some regions, but the conditions for a broad-based reversal are not yet in place.