In the evening of 11 9, several listed companies, including Zhengbang Technology, Shen Nong Group, New Hope Liuhe, TianKang Bio-technology, Da Bei Nong, Tangrenshen, and Keming Foods, released their 10 hog sales briefings in quick succession. Combined with the previously released data from Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe, the average hog sales price in 10 was concentrated in the range of 9.5 yuan to 9.8 yuan per kilogram, down 6% to 10% month on month. Year-on-year declines generally exceeded 15%, and the hog farming industry remained in a phase of deep losses. However, several brokerages’ latest research reports suggest that sustained losses are forcing the industry to accelerate capacity reductions at the margin, and signs of a cyclical reversal are becoming increasingly clear.
Leading pig farming companies have generally reduced production.
In terms of sales volume, monthly slaughter volumes at leading pig companies fell significantly in 10. According to disclosures, Muyuan Foods sold 591.3 ten thousand commercial pigs in 10, down 7.9% month on month and 16.43% year on year; cumulative sales from 1 to 10 totaled 6464.3 ten thousand pigs. Wens Foodstuff sold 325.72 ten thousand meat pigs (including live pigs and fresh products), up 9% month on month and down 16.33% year on year. New Hope sold 128.69 ten thousand commercial pigs, up 12.92% month on month and down 4.87% year on year.
Companies disclosing data on the evening of 11 month 9 showed mixed results. Zhengbang Technology sold 94.76 ten thousand live pigs in 10 month, up 12.5% month on month and 4.38% year on year. From 1 to 10 month, cumulative sales totaled 905.75 ten thousand head, up 36.41% year on year. Shennong Group sold 42.84 ten thousand commercial pigs, up 55.9% year on year, with cumulative sales of 303.25 ten thousand head from 1 to 10 month. Tiankang Biotech sold 41.26 ten thousand live pigs, up 14.23% month on month and 0.59% year on year; since 6 month, it has included Qiangdu Livestock in the scope of its consolidated financial statements. Xingjiang Muge, a subsidiary controlled by Keming Food, sold 6.23 ten thousand live pigs, up 52.38% year on year. The company said this was mainly due to the release of production capacity. In contrast, New Hope Liuhe sold 38.47 ten thousand live pigs in 10 month, down 36.93% year on year. Da Bei Nong sold 22.28 ten thousand commercial fattened pigs, down 14.01% month on month and 39.29% year on year. Tangrenshen sold 49.95 ten thousand live pigs, down 19.33% year on year.
Prices and revenue better reflect the industry's ups and downs. In 10 month, Muyuan Foods' average selling price for commercial pigs was 9.64 yuan/kg, down 6.9% month on month and 16.54% year on year, while revenue from commercial pig sales was 72.53 hundred million yuan, down 29.79% year on year. Wen's Foodstuff Group's average selling price for live pigs was 9.78 yuan/kg, down 9.02% month on month and 15.47% year on year. Among companies that disclosed figures on the evening of 11 month 9, Shennong Group's average selling price for commercial pigs was 9.83 yuan/kg, down 6.02% month on month; Zhengbang Technology's average price for commercial pigs was 9.59 yuan/kg, down 8.56% month on month; and Tech-bank Food's average price for commercial pigs was 8.83 yuan/kg, down 9.81% month on month, the lowest among companies that have disclosed figures so far.
Amid falling prices, most companies saw year-on-year declines in sales revenue in 10 month: Da Bei Nong's commercial hog sales revenue was 2.87 billion yuan, down 46.75% year on year; Tian Kang Bio's sales revenue was 4.12 billion yuan, down 24.26% year on year; and Zhengbang Technology's sales revenue was 5.96 billion yuan, down 12.69% year on year.
Industry losses are forcing capacity to be phased out
Pig prices remained persistently weak, and losses on the farming side continued to deepen. Citing sample data from Mysteel, Kaiyuan Securities noted that the number of breeding sows in stock in 2026 year 10 month fell by 1.57% month on month, with the decline widening by 0.71 percentage points compared with 9 month, marking nine consecutive months of month-on-month decline. Data from Yongyi showed that, as of 11 month 5 day, high-parity culled sows relative to commercialPig pricesThe discount coefficient drops to 65.76%, eliminating the parentPig pricesWeakened, reflecting stronger willingness among farmers to proactively cull. The brokerage believes that continued losses at both ends—in piglets and commercial hogs—are draining cash flow. Production-cutting pressure is spreading from operators raising both piglets and commercial hogs to some specialized piglet sellers. The fourth quarter of 2026 may still see mainly moderate net capacity reduction; if losses persist, proactive capacity reduction may accelerate further in the first half of 2027.
GF Securities also noted that pig farming companies generally faced earnings pressure in the third quarter, and capacity reduction is expected to accelerate. Tianfeng Securities believes that pig prices failed to rebound during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, and the first peak-season demand came in below expectations. Losses are still worsening, and, combined with disease-related disruptions and policy regulation, sow capacity may still be reduced at an accelerated pace.
Looking ahead, Kaiyuan Securities believes that in the short term, hog prices may continue to fluctuate at relatively weak levels. Pickling and curing at food factories in the middle and latter part of 11 is expected to support the consumption of frozen products, while household pickling and curing in 12 is expected to improve demand for fresh products; however, the overall pattern of loose supply and demand is expected to persist. Several institutions have cautioned that, as the ongoing reduction in the number of breeding sows gradually feeds through to the number of hogs marketed, the hog supply-and-demand balance in 2027 is expected to improve at the margin, and leading hog producers with cost advantages may be among the first to benefit from a cyclical reversal.
Leading pig farming companies have generally reduced production.
In terms of sales volume, monthly slaughter volumes at leading pig companies fell significantly in 10. According to disclosures, Muyuan Foods sold 591.3 ten thousand commercial pigs in 10, down 7.9% month on month and 16.43% year on year; cumulative sales from 1 to 10 totaled 6464.3 ten thousand pigs. Wens Foodstuff sold 325.72 ten thousand meat pigs (including live pigs and fresh products), up 9% month on month and down 16.33% year on year. New Hope sold 128.69 ten thousand commercial pigs, up 12.92% month on month and down 4.87% year on year.
Companies disclosing data on the evening of 11 month 9 showed mixed results. Zhengbang Technology sold 94.76 ten thousand live pigs in 10 month, up 12.5% month on month and 4.38% year on year. From 1 to 10 month, cumulative sales totaled 905.75 ten thousand head, up 36.41% year on year. Shennong Group sold 42.84 ten thousand commercial pigs, up 55.9% year on year, with cumulative sales of 303.25 ten thousand head from 1 to 10 month. Tiankang Biotech sold 41.26 ten thousand live pigs, up 14.23% month on month and 0.59% year on year; since 6 month, it has included Qiangdu Livestock in the scope of its consolidated financial statements. Xingjiang Muge, a subsidiary controlled by Keming Food, sold 6.23 ten thousand live pigs, up 52.38% year on year. The company said this was mainly due to the release of production capacity. In contrast, New Hope Liuhe sold 38.47 ten thousand live pigs in 10 month, down 36.93% year on year. Da Bei Nong sold 22.28 ten thousand commercial fattened pigs, down 14.01% month on month and 39.29% year on year. Tangrenshen sold 49.95 ten thousand live pigs, down 19.33% year on year.
Prices and revenue better reflect the industry's ups and downs. In 10 month, Muyuan Foods' average selling price for commercial pigs was 9.64 yuan/kg, down 6.9% month on month and 16.54% year on year, while revenue from commercial pig sales was 72.53 hundred million yuan, down 29.79% year on year. Wen's Foodstuff Group's average selling price for live pigs was 9.78 yuan/kg, down 9.02% month on month and 15.47% year on year. Among companies that disclosed figures on the evening of 11 month 9, Shennong Group's average selling price for commercial pigs was 9.83 yuan/kg, down 6.02% month on month; Zhengbang Technology's average price for commercial pigs was 9.59 yuan/kg, down 8.56% month on month; and Tech-bank Food's average price for commercial pigs was 8.83 yuan/kg, down 9.81% month on month, the lowest among companies that have disclosed figures so far.
Amid falling prices, most companies saw year-on-year declines in sales revenue in 10 month: Da Bei Nong's commercial hog sales revenue was 2.87 billion yuan, down 46.75% year on year; Tian Kang Bio's sales revenue was 4.12 billion yuan, down 24.26% year on year; and Zhengbang Technology's sales revenue was 5.96 billion yuan, down 12.69% year on year.
Industry losses are forcing capacity to be phased out
Pig prices remained persistently weak, and losses on the farming side continued to deepen. Citing sample data from Mysteel, Kaiyuan Securities noted that the number of breeding sows in stock in 2026 year 10 month fell by 1.57% month on month, with the decline widening by 0.71 percentage points compared with 9 month, marking nine consecutive months of month-on-month decline. Data from Yongyi showed that, as of 11 month 5 day, high-parity culled sows relative to commercialPig pricesThe discount coefficient drops to 65.76%, eliminating the parentPig pricesWeakened, reflecting stronger willingness among farmers to proactively cull. The brokerage believes that continued losses at both ends—in piglets and commercial hogs—are draining cash flow. Production-cutting pressure is spreading from operators raising both piglets and commercial hogs to some specialized piglet sellers. The fourth quarter of 2026 may still see mainly moderate net capacity reduction; if losses persist, proactive capacity reduction may accelerate further in the first half of 2027.
GF Securities also noted that pig farming companies generally faced earnings pressure in the third quarter, and capacity reduction is expected to accelerate. Tianfeng Securities believes that pig prices failed to rebound during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, and the first peak-season demand came in below expectations. Losses are still worsening, and, combined with disease-related disruptions and policy regulation, sow capacity may still be reduced at an accelerated pace.
Looking ahead, Kaiyuan Securities believes that in the short term, hog prices may continue to fluctuate at relatively weak levels. Pickling and curing at food factories in the middle and latter part of 11 is expected to support the consumption of frozen products, while household pickling and curing in 12 is expected to improve demand for fresh products; however, the overall pattern of loose supply and demand is expected to persist. Several institutions have cautioned that, as the ongoing reduction in the number of breeding sows gradually feeds through to the number of hogs marketed, the hog supply-and-demand balance in 2027 is expected to improve at the margin, and leading hog producers with cost advantages may be among the first to benefit from a cyclical reversal.