According to monitoring data from Zhuduo, on 11 month 10, the national average price of live pigs of the three-way crossbreed was 8.62 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday. National pig prices have remained at this level for two consecutive days, and the market is caught in a stalemate between bullish and bearish forces.
Across the country, prices first saw a partial rebound in northern producing regions. In parts of Northeast and North China, farmers became more reluctant to sell, and the pace of marketings slowed, pushing up quotations for standard-weight pigs slightly. Most southern regions, however, remained under pressure: slaughtering companies lowered their purchase prices, pig prices fluctuated downward, and the price gap between north and south widened again. Disagreement over whether this round of rebounds can continue is growing.
This partial rebound in the north does not signal a reversal in supply and demand fundamentals. It is more a temporary effort by producers to support prices after a prolonged steep decline. The pig-to-grain price ratio remains in the Level One warning range. Losses are putting pressure on farmers not to continue selling at low prices, prompting them to slow the pace of marketings. Combined with falling temperatures in the north, the start of local stocking for cured meat, and short-term replenishment of slaughterhouse inventories, this has pushed up quotations in some areas. However, the rebound is very limited in scope, concentrated in some northern producing regions. Most southern areas have ample supplies of market-ready pigs, while consumer demand has been slow to follow through, so prices have not risen in tandem.
The expected peak-season demand this year has not yet fully materialized. Based on past patterns, 11 month is when the curing and sausage-making season gets underway, which in theory should drive up slaughter volumes. But the consumer recovery has been weak this year, and sales at the retail end have been slower than expected. Slaughterhouses are mostly following a produce-to-order strategy and are wary of buying large volumes of pigs at high prices, keeping their purchasing intentions cautious. The positive effects of peak season are unfolding gradually, and are unlikely to generate enough momentum in the short term to support a sustained nationwide price rally.
Overall, the localized rebound in the north is a short-term sentiment-driven recovery during a period of bottoming out, not a trend reversal. It will be difficult for the rally to spread widely. The market is likely to remain in a low-level, range-bound pattern, with regional divergences.
For pig farmers, it is inadvisable to bet blindly on a price rally or hold pigs back in large numbers. They should plan sales rationally based on their own financial situation. Large-scale pig farms should also focus on cost control and avoid the risk of a glut caused by concentrated shipments. A market turning point will still require two signals: sustained contraction in supply and a concentrated surge in demand for cured meat products. Until the supply-demand picture becomes clearer, the struggle over the bottom of the pig cycle will continue.