Recently, demand has provided limited marginal support to China’s hog market. During the traditional peak season for seasonal demand, sales and purchases of fresh pork carcasses have been sluggish. In addition, rising average hog weights at market have strengthened pork supply, while major slaughterhouses have been shipping frozen products successively, further limiting their average daily operating rates. On the supply side, hog sales by producers had been slow earlier, delaying the release of production capacity. With seasonal changes, the risk of disease affecting hog prices, and producers’ need to recover funds, many types of producers have become eager to sell. Amid an imbalance between production and sales, domestic hog prices have fallen sharply, with the average live hog price hitting a new low for 2026.
However, over the past two days, the decline in hog prices has narrowed, and price increases have become more common in the market. Hog prices appear to have stopped falling and started to recover. Can this apparent “spring after winter” lead to a sharp rebound after the oversold decline? The analysis follows:
As of 11 month 10, the nationalternary crossbredstandard-weight live hog price averaged 8.53 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan from the previous day. Hog prices have risen “stubbornly,” but are down by more than 29.1% year on year, with the market showing signs of “bottoming out.” In particular, since the traditional “Golden September and Silver October” period began, hog prices have fallen by a cumulative 23.08% from their peak at the beginning of 9 month.
By region, on 11 month 10, China’s hog market saw more regions reporting increases than declines. Prices generally rose by 0.05~0.15 yuan in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Shandong, Anhui, Shanghai, Hubei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning. Prices fell by 0.05~0.2 yuan in Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Henan, Shaanxi and Gansu, Chongqing, and Guizhou. The hog market fluctuated between gains and losses, with the market remaining at an impasse. In the north, prices are currently 8.5~8.85 yuan/kg in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning; 8.5~8.65 yuan in Shanxi and Hebei; and 7.85~8.1 yuan in Shaanxi and Gansu. In the south, prices are 8.1~8.4 yuan in Sichuan and Chongqing; 8.45~8.6 yuan in Shandong and Anhui; 8.5~8.55 yuan in Jiangsu and Zhejiang; 8.4 yuan in Henan; and 10 yuan/kg in Guangdong.
Recently, the hog market has remained weak. On the supply side, because demand provided limited marginal support earlier, producers have been slow to market hogs, and delayed marketing of production capacity has become more common. As the weather has turned cooler, producers have been holding hogs back involuntarily, and the average weight of hogs marketed has continued to rise. The average marketing weight last week was 125.22 kilograms. Recently, with seasonal changes and frequent cold-air activity, the risk of disease during hog fattening has increased. The share of medium and large hogs in producers’ inventories has risen, and the domestic price spread between standard and heavy hogs has narrowed. Market participants lack confidence in the outlook, and many producers are actively willing to sell. In particular, some second- and third-tier producers face severe cash-flow pressure, making forced sales to raise cash commonplace and further reinforcing the oversupply situation!
On the demand side, marginal demand support has changed little recently. Although the arrival of the Beginning of Winter and falling temperatures have brought some improvement in household demand, and willingness to stock up for winter has recovered, the average weight of hogs marketed has risen and slaughter weights have increased. In addition, frozen pork stocks in China are gradually being shipped out, further strengthening pork supply! Restocking demand from downstream traders is generally weak, and slaughterhouse operating rates are struggling to recover, leaving demand support somewhat limited!
Accordingly, amid an imbalance between supply and demand, hog prices have recently fallen more than expected. Quotes for standard hogs have dropped to 8.52 yuan/kg, a new low since the beginning of this year! Although the latest news indicates that hog prices have stopped falling and risen, the market still faces supply-side pressure. Fortunately, as the curing season approaches, hogpriceshave hit a new period low. Producers may briefly be inclined to hold hogs back and defend prices, and the market may be expected to stabilize and recover! Overall, however, in month 11, the supply-demand fundamentals have yet to turn around, and hog prices still face severe supply-side pressure. Whether prices can extend their gains will depend on the pace of capacity reduction and changes in marginal demand support!
However, over the past two days, the decline in hog prices has narrowed, and price increases have become more common in the market. Hog prices appear to have stopped falling and started to recover. Can this apparent “spring after winter” lead to a sharp rebound after the oversold decline? The analysis follows:
As of 11 month 10, the nationalternary crossbredstandard-weight live hog price averaged 8.53 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan from the previous day. Hog prices have risen “stubbornly,” but are down by more than 29.1% year on year, with the market showing signs of “bottoming out.” In particular, since the traditional “Golden September and Silver October” period began, hog prices have fallen by a cumulative 23.08% from their peak at the beginning of 9 month.
By region, on 11 month 10, China’s hog market saw more regions reporting increases than declines. Prices generally rose by 0.05~0.15 yuan in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Shandong, Anhui, Shanghai, Hubei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning. Prices fell by 0.05~0.2 yuan in Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Henan, Shaanxi and Gansu, Chongqing, and Guizhou. The hog market fluctuated between gains and losses, with the market remaining at an impasse. In the north, prices are currently 8.5~8.85 yuan/kg in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning; 8.5~8.65 yuan in Shanxi and Hebei; and 7.85~8.1 yuan in Shaanxi and Gansu. In the south, prices are 8.1~8.4 yuan in Sichuan and Chongqing; 8.45~8.6 yuan in Shandong and Anhui; 8.5~8.55 yuan in Jiangsu and Zhejiang; 8.4 yuan in Henan; and 10 yuan/kg in Guangdong.
Recently, the hog market has remained weak. On the supply side, because demand provided limited marginal support earlier, producers have been slow to market hogs, and delayed marketing of production capacity has become more common. As the weather has turned cooler, producers have been holding hogs back involuntarily, and the average weight of hogs marketed has continued to rise. The average marketing weight last week was 125.22 kilograms. Recently, with seasonal changes and frequent cold-air activity, the risk of disease during hog fattening has increased. The share of medium and large hogs in producers’ inventories has risen, and the domestic price spread between standard and heavy hogs has narrowed. Market participants lack confidence in the outlook, and many producers are actively willing to sell. In particular, some second- and third-tier producers face severe cash-flow pressure, making forced sales to raise cash commonplace and further reinforcing the oversupply situation!
On the demand side, marginal demand support has changed little recently. Although the arrival of the Beginning of Winter and falling temperatures have brought some improvement in household demand, and willingness to stock up for winter has recovered, the average weight of hogs marketed has risen and slaughter weights have increased. In addition, frozen pork stocks in China are gradually being shipped out, further strengthening pork supply! Restocking demand from downstream traders is generally weak, and slaughterhouse operating rates are struggling to recover, leaving demand support somewhat limited!
Accordingly, amid an imbalance between supply and demand, hog prices have recently fallen more than expected. Quotes for standard hogs have dropped to 8.52 yuan/kg, a new low since the beginning of this year! Although the latest news indicates that hog prices have stopped falling and risen, the market still faces supply-side pressure. Fortunately, as the curing season approaches, hogpriceshave hit a new period low. Producers may briefly be inclined to hold hogs back and defend prices, and the market may be expected to stabilize and recover! Overall, however, in month 11, the supply-demand fundamentals have yet to turn around, and hog prices still face severe supply-side pressure. Whether prices can extend their gains will depend on the pace of capacity reduction and changes in marginal demand support!