Recently, demand has provided limited marginal support to China’s hog market. During the traditional seasonal peak in demand, trading in fresh pork carcasses has been sluggish. Meanwhile, rising average slaughter weights have strengthened pork supply, and major slaughterhouses have gradually released frozen pork stocks, further limiting their average daily operating rates. On the supply side, after producers were slow to market hogs earlier, production capacity has lagged in coming to market. With the change of season, disease risks affecting hog prices, and producers’ need to replenish cash, many types of producers have become eager to market their hogs. Amid this imbalance between production and sales, domestic hog prices have broken below key levels, with the average live-hog price reaching a new low for 2026!
However, over the past two days, the decline in hog prices has narrowed, and price increases have become more common. Prices appear to have stopped falling and begun to recover. Can this “dead wood coming to life” in hog prices lead to a sharp rebound after overshooting? Analysis follows:
As of 11 month 10, the average domestic price for standard hogs of the three crossbreeds was 8.53 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan from the previous day. Hog prices have risen “stubbornly,” but are down more than 29.1% year over year, with the market “bottoming out”! In particular, compared with the peak at the beginning of 9 month, hog prices have fallen by a cumulative 23.08% since the traditional “Golden September and Silver October” period!
By region, on 11 month 10, the domestic hog market showed a pattern of “more rises than falls”! Hog prices generally rose by 0.05~0.15 yuan in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Shandong, Anhui, Shanghai, Hubei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and the Heilongjiang-Jilin-Liaoning region. In terms of declines, prices in Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Henan, Shaanxi and Gansu, Chongqing, and Guizhou fell by 0.05~0.2 yuan. Hog prices fluctuated up and down, and the market remained in a stalemate. In the north, current prices in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning are 8.5~8.85 yuan/kg; prices in Shanxi and Hebei are 8.5~8.65 yuan; and prices in Shaanxi and Gansu are 7.85~8.1 yuan. In the south, prices in Sichuan and Chongqing are 8.1~8.4 yuan; prices in Shandong and Anhui are 8.45~8.6 yuan; prices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 8.5~8.55 yuan; prices in Henan are 8.4 yuan; and prices in Guangdong are 10 yuan/kg!
Recently, the hog market has remained weak. On the supply side, because demand provided limited marginal support earlier, farms have been slow to bring hogs to market, and delayed marketing of production capacity has become more common. As the weather has turned cooler, farms have been forced to hold hogs back, and the average weight of hogs marketed has continued to rise. The average marketing weight last week was 125.22 kg. Recently, with the change of season and frequent cold-air activity, the risk of disease during hog fattening has increased. The share of medium and large hogs in farm inventories has risen, the domestic price spread between standard and heavy hogs has narrowed, and confidence in a future market rebound is lacking. Many types of farming entities are actively selling. In particular, some second- and third-tier farming entities are under severe financial pressure, making forced sales to raise cash widespread and further reinforcing the oversupply situation!
On the demand side, marginal demand support has changed little recently. Although the arrival of Lidong and falling temperatures have improved the recovery in household demand, and consumers’ willingness to stock up for winter has rebounded, the rising average weight of hogs marketed has increased slaughter weights. In addition, frozen pork stocks in China have been released in succession, further strengthening pork supply! Restocking demand from downstream traders is average, slaughterhouse operating rates are struggling to recover, and demand support remains somewhat limited!
Based on this analysis, amid an imbalance between supply and demand, pig prices have recently fallen more than expected, with the quoted price for standard-weight pigs dropping to 8.52 yuan/kg, a new low so far this year! Although the latest news shows that pig prices have stopped falling and risen, the market still faces pressure from the supply side. Fortunately, as the curing season approaches, live pig prices have reached a new low for this period, and producers may temporarily hold back shipments to support prices, with the market potentially expected to stop falling and recover! Overall, however, in 11 month, the supply-and-demand fundamentals have yet to turn around, and pig prices still face severe supply-side pressure. Whether pig prices can rise further in the coming period will depend on the pace of production capacity reduction and changes in marginal demand support!