According to monitoring data from Zhu Hao Duo, on 2026 year 11 month 9 day, the national average price of pigs of the three-way crossbreed was 8.62 yuan/kg, setting a new low for the year! Pig prices previously hit a bottom once in 4 month, falling to 8.67 yuan/kg. Afterward, prices rebounded from the bottom and rose all the way to 10.04 yuan/kg. With prices bottoming out and losses deepening again, can pig prices this time repeat the bottoming-out rebound seen in 4 month?
Looking back at the market at the end of 4, at that time, after pig prices hit bottom, the combination of government stockpiling to support prices and the end of panic selling by some farmers led to a short-term recovery in sentiment, driving prices to rebound quickly. Now, in 11, the situation is more complex. This should be the traditional peak season for consumer demand as people stock up for cured meat, but the boost to end demand has fallen short of expectations. Slaughterhouses are unwilling to store dressed carcasses, and wholesale market traders are unwilling to store pork cuts. The only way to fully absorb the pork supply is to lower prices, creating a cycle of “lower pork prices—lower dressed-carcass prices—lower live hog prices.”
In terms of losses, they remain substantial. However, compared with 4 months, the mindset of livestock producers has also changed. After experiencing a rebound, prices have fallen again, making producers more cautious about expecting a short-term rebound. Their willingness to hold back livestock or delay sales has weakened considerably. As soon as prices recover slightly, they are more inclined to sell, limiting the extent of any rebound. Moreover, as the period of losses continues to lengthen, some producers are also being forced to sell livestock to recoup funds.
From a market perspective, current market pressure remains concentrated on the supply side. On the one hand, institutional monitoring shows that the planned hog slaughter volume for month 11 is still slightly higher month on month than the actual slaughter volume in month 10. On the other hand, the weight of hogs at slaughter continues to rise. Monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that the average post-slaughter weight of hogs in week 44 of year 2026 was 89.64 kilograms, up 0.53 kilograms from the previous week. Frozen pork stocks are also being slowly drawn down. This is also a key difference between this round and the market in month 4.
The prevailing consensus across the industry is that this market cycle is most likely undergoing a prolonged bottoming process, and it will be difficult to replicate the rapid rebound seen in 4. Instead, prices are more likely to fluctuate at low levels and repeatedly test the bottom. A genuine trend-driven recovery will still require multiple signals to converge, including a substantial decline in slaughter-ready supply, a reduction in frozen-product inventories, and a simultaneous improvement in consumption.