According to monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on 6 11, the average pork price at wholesale markets for agricultural products nationwide was 15.05 yuan/kg, down 1.6% from 15.29 yuan/kg on the previous Friday (30 10). The average price this week was 15.1 yuan/kg, down 2.96% from last week's average of 15.56 yuan/kg.
Domestic live hog prices continued to trend downward this week, with the weekly average falling from the previous week. On 6 11, the price of live hogs (three-way crossbred) was 8.83 yuan/kg, down 3.9% from 9.19 yuan/kg on the previous Friday (30 10). In terms of the weekly average, the average live hog price this week was 9.04 yuan/kg, down 3.2% from last week's average of 9.34 yuan/kg.
Live hog prices fell rather than rose in 11, mainly because capacity reduction had been slow in the earlier period and steadily improving production efficiency continued to increase hog supply. In addition, the gradual drop in temperatures did not provide a boost to hog demand, and the curing season had not yet begun, limiting support for downstream demand.
Dadi Futures believes it will take time to absorb the pressure from existing inventories. The passive increase in hog weights continues, reflecting a generally slow pace of absorption. Secondary fattening activity is relatively cautious, while demand-side uptake appears weak, leaving insufficient upward momentum. Industry losses are accumulating and cash flow continues to outflow. The current weakness in spot prices is unlikely to change in the near term, and the broader trend of capacity reduction remains intact. Near-term demand is too weak to provide adequate support, and any increase in slaughter volume from its low level is likely to be limited for now. Attention should be paid to subsequent cooling and the start of early-season preparations for cured meat.
According to Zhuochuang Information's monitoring of sampled breeding enterprises, planned hog marketings for 2026 increased by 3.52% month on month, a significantly larger increase than in the previous two months. In 10, breeding enterprises did not meet their planned marketing targets. The completion rate for the marketing plan in 10 was 98.14%, showing signs of decline compared with the previous two months. Enterprises chose to defer uncompleted plans to 11. In addition, due to timing factors, most enterprises chose to begin a year-end push to increase marketings. Hogs grow faster in winter, and the pace of marketings accelerated to some extent. These factors resulted in an overall supply-demand pattern of excess supply in 11, putting some downward pressure on hog prices.
As temperatures gradually fall in 11, the market enters the traditional peak season for pork consumption, when demand for cured meat would normally rise significantly. However, so far, curing and sausage-making activities have not begun, and the boost to end-consumer pork demand has been relatively limited. According to statistics from Zhuochuang Information, as of 11 6, the daily hog slaughter volume for the month ranged from 18.0 to 18.3 ten thousand head. Compared with the earlier Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day period, hog demand showed a clear decline. Insufficient support from downstream demand has had a clear bearish effect on hog prices.
Overall, large-scale farms are expected to release a concentrated volume of marketings in early 11. Curing activities have not yet begun, and frozen meat inventories remain high. These factors may cause hog prices to continue falling, potentially staying between 8.5 yuan/kg and 9.0 yuan/kg. In the latter part of the month, temperatures are expected to fall further, slaughterhouse operating rates are expected to gradually rise, and curing activities are expected to begin gradually. These factors may drive hog prices up somewhat, potentially keeping them at 8.9-9.3 yuan/kg. The overall monthly average may remain around 8.9 yuan/kg, with the average hog price showing a slight increase overall. (Source: Zhuochuang Information, Dadi Futures, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, etc.)