Hog prices fell rather than rose as 11 began. The slow reduction in production capacity in the earlier period, together with gradually improving production efficiency, has led to a continued increase in hog supply. The gradual drop in temperatures has not benefited hog demand, and the curing season has not yet begun, so the boost to downstream demand has been limited.
Pig prices have continued to fall since 1, 11
At the start of the fourth quarter, temperatures gradually declined, and demand for live pigs increased to some extent. However, this increase in demand did not lead to higher prices; instead, prices fell. In 10, the national price of lean hogs was 9.65 yuan/kg, down 9.64% month on month. In 11, hog prices continued to fall. As of 11 6, the national price of lean hogs was 8.57 yuan/kg, and prices fell further. Due to factors such as ample production capacity in the earlier period, the supply of live pigs remained sufficient in the fourth quarter. However, downstream demand was not strong enough, and the oversupply of live pigs persisted, so hog prices may continue to fall.
Figure 1 Trend chart of the national average price of lean hogs monitored by SunSirs
Data source: SunSirs
Hog slaughter in 2 and 11 remained steady, making it difficult to drive up pork prices
The hog slaughter plan of the breeding companies monitored by Zhuochuang Information increased by 3.52% month on month in 2026, with a notably larger increase than in the previous two months. Breeding companies did not meet their expected slaughter plan completion targets in 10. The plan completion rate in 10 was 98.14%, showing signs of decline compared with the previous two months. Companies chose to defer their uncompleted plans to 11. In addition, due to timing factors, most companies chose to begin a volume-pushing phase at year-end. Hogs grow faster in winter, and the slaughter pace accelerated to some extent. These factors resulted in an overall hog supply-and-demand situation in 11 in which supply exceeded demand, putting some downward pressure on hog prices.
Zhuochuang Information monitored sample enterprises’ planned hog sales and plan completion rate for 2 2025-2026
Data source: Zhuochuang Information
Hog demand showed no significant improvement in early 11 of 3, weighing on hog prices
In 11 month, temperatures gradually drop, ushering in the traditional peak season for pork consumption, and demand for cured pork products should increase significantly. However, at present, curing and sausage-making activities have not yet begun, and the boost to end-user pork consumption is relatively limited. According to statistics from Zhuochuang Information, as of 6 of 11 month, the daily hog slaughter volume for the month ranged from 18.0 to 18.3 ten thousand head. Compared with the preceding Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day period, hog demand showed a clear downward trend. The insufficient boost from downstream demand has had a pronounced bearish effect on hog prices.
Chart 3 Trend in Hog Slaughter Volume at Zhuochuang Information’s Monitored Sample Enterprises
Data source: Zhuochuang Information
Overall, in early 11, large-scale farms are expected to release a concentrated volume of hogs to boost sales. Curing activities have not yet begun, and the impact of relatively high frozen-product inventories may lead hog prices to continue falling, potentially remaining at 8.5 yuan/kg to 9.0 yuan/kg. In the latter part of the month, as temperatures continue to fall, factors such as a gradual increase in slaughterhouse operating rates and the gradual start of curing activities may drive hog prices up somewhat, potentially keeping them at 8.9-9.3 yuan/kg. The overall average price for the month may remain around 8.9 yuan/kg, with the average hog price showing signs of a slight overall increase.